konksw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It did well for one or both of the Jan events, but a terrible job with the recent one a few days ago Ehhh. During the first even it didn’t even have the storm in the same location as the radar lol. It was sending the snow to like Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 HRRR was awful for the last storm and is also very jumpy this far from the event. I wouldn't really get worried about anything it is showing until this evening, and even then, I wouldn't give it much weight unless other guidance came in line with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM early on looking a little more amp'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Low pressure stronger and over southwest Tennessee this time at 9. 1007 vs 1009 at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It’s going to be at least a hold trending towards wetter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Low SW and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence): Zone A: 6-10" Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B 17 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 LP @ 1002 vs 1006 at 06z and over southwest Virginia. Precipitation on the doorstep at 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Rough snow forecast outline (Medium Confidence): Zone A: 6-10" Zone B: 3-5" w/ stripe of 5-6" within the 85H frontogen band that sets up from NoVA through SoMD. The potential does include the DC metro, but best chance for highest totals will lie on the edge and outside the beltway. Uncertainty for Southern DE due to thermals Zone C: 4-6" in the Catoctins and adjacent terrain Zone D: 4-6" w/ max of 7" elevation areas above 650ft. This is tricky depending on 7H frontogenesis placement Most of region: 2-5" fairly widespread. Higher totals within the Parrs ridge area from NW MoCo through western HoCo into the Carroll/Frederick border (Clarksburg/Damascus/Mount Airy). 1-2" for areas south of Zone B Tell LWX to give me my goddamn warning or there WILL be consequences. 4 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, dailylurker said: This reminds me of a classic event when I was a kid (I'm 45). Go to bed with no snow and wake up with snow! That was normal kids. I wasn't surprised because I was up all night creeping around the house, looking out every window lol That was me! I'm 57. It's so nice to have a whole community to talk weather with on here. All I had was weather on the news and my Bearcat weather radio I'm hoping this one surprises a la 3/9/99 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Solution Man said: LP @ 1002 vs 1006 at 06z and over southwest Virginia Bring it home! I’m on the damn subway and this phone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Tell LWX to give me my goddamn warning or there WILL be consequences. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Heavy snow, through 18 and low pressure at 1003. Going to be at least a hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Bring it home! I’m on the damn subway and this phone. Not that phone again huh. Like seeing the closed h85 contour this run vs last to really enhance some local fronto banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Its a good hit, just north of EZF through MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Really strong 700mb FGEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Really strong 700mb FGEN This would produce the chance at ridiculous rates, my goodness. Want to see some soundings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Storm is out of here at 21. Somebody post clown map. wherever the bands sets up someone’s gonna get 6 to 8 out of this. About a six hour thumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @NorthArlington101 is failing us. Where are the clown maps?? SV doesn’t have snow maps for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, StormyClearweather said: SOLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: @NorthArlington101 is failing us. Where are the clown maps?? SV doesn’t have snow maps for the NAM. Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, StormyClearweather said: That would be a nice outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice. Correct there is a bit more stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yeah, it seems like 4-6” is now much more what the models are showing vs 2-4” yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice. Give us the FREAKIN snow maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: SOLD 3K is pretty similar, too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Perfect pass for us at h85 and the h7 fronto is off the charts. If the NAM verified verbatim, there would be 2-3"/hr rates happening somewhere and possibly TSSN+ 3k is a pounding too, funny how kuch is lower than 10:1, with those soundings and that setup, the growth should be great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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