psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Per PSU, in these setups we get to double the NAM QPF output whatever it shows..... at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 named Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Looks like im staying up til 2am on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh it is, but no matter what Baltimore is only getting 5" because they aren't allowed to have warning events there anymore. @Maestrobjwaknows Thought about that a little while ago...I believe we finally broke that during our first wintry week (I THINK...we ended the week with 9.1 inches so at least one of those must've been over 5). Listen, given what we could facing next winter (and the next if the next will double dip like ninas LOVE to do), and the overall uncertainty in our climo, I may not be as picky now. Gonna enjoy the moderate--although I'll still hope for the big one one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well this one certainly could've been one had the waves timed up better and phased more, right? no this setup was always way too noisy to likely be a HECS event. The way this evolved was probably one of the best scenarios we could hope for. If this tracks right I really do think a 4-8" event is possible and short of getting lottery level lucky with a very complicated phasing scenario...that's about max potential this could have been IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 https://x.com/accurayno/status/1758228497028219199?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Lot of models have wanted to paint this band of much lighter precip over Baltimore for several runs now and its really showing up on the HiRes stuff too... makes me a bit nervous. I seem to remember a storm a few years ago that did this "crab claw" thing and it became a big joke on here but it really did screw people inside the claw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Boom. Winchester pummeled. You just have to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 18Z 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: https://x.com/accurayno/status/1758228497028219199?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Bernie is enjoying thirsty Thursday as well. Weenie post though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3k NAM soundings are more impressive vs 12z. Definitely would be big ol’ dendrites for a couple hours from 6-8z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, clskinsfan said: Bernie is enjoying thirsty Thursday as well. Weenie post though. So we’re having a board meet up on the mall in dc at 2am? Randy is bringing the drinks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All 10:1 maps are wrong. Most of the Kuchera as well. Multiply your qpf by 12, possibly as high as 15. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, snowfan said: So we’re having a board meet up on the mall in dc at 2am? Randy is bringing the drinks. Live radio show from the Mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 woof 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Started today thinking 2-3” was most likely outcome. I now think 4”-5” is looking like a better bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Shew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: woof Mama Mia.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All 10:1 maps are wrong. Most of the Kuchera as well. Multiply your qpf by 12, possibly as high as 15. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it. If the soundings look like the 3k NAM at 6-7z around DC, then I think 12:1 during that period is reasonable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If the soundings look like the 3k NAM at 6-7z around DC, then I think 12:1 during that period is reasonable. I can’t remember the last time @MN Transplant reported in his ratios and we had more than 10:1 in and around the Beltway. That may because I have a godawful memory but I’m never counting on more than 10:1… and should probably be expecting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: So we’re having a board meet up on the mall in dc at 2am? Randy is bringing the drinks. With your credit card 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Lot of models have wanted to paint this band of much lighter precip over Baltimore for several runs now and its really showing up on the HiRes stuff too... makes me a bit nervous. I seem to remember a storm a few years ago that did this "crab claw" thing and it became a big joke on here but it really did screw people inside the claw The last couple of storms... The Baltimore area was supposed to be jackpotted... It never happened. Maybe it can be reverse psychology this time too and we actually get jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: at this rate by tomorrow I'm going to find out I predicted 40-50" with lollies to 60 That’ll be rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 PHI Issued WWA for much of their CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Who was it that was asking for a Special Weather Statement on Tuesday... well here you go Special Weather Statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Who was it that was asking for a Special Weather Statement on Tuesday... well here you go Special Weather Statement Move your cars!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 18Z ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Kinda wish it was tonight and not tomorrow night...places to the south went from precip max zone to bupkus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The ICON and NAM have both shifted significantly north at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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