Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM slow as hell, looks like at least a hold and leaning towards better for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Maybe when i was 56 but i'm 57 now so not sure. Wait till you are 67 you will not be able to sleep…. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 So far it’s wetter to our south and west in Ky but that probably doesn’t mean anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM is a wiggle south with the low, both 3k and 12k (vs 06z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: NAM slow as hell, looks like at least a hold and leaning towards better for the area Looks weaker to me on the H5 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gonna be a least a hold at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Its slightly better for some to the east than the 6z run. But really just noise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!! ....from 0.2" to 0.3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!! ....from 0.2" to 0.3"You joke, but that’s a BFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 stiill snowing at 45, Ji back edge approaching, little, longer duration about 7 to 8 hr. of snow. Ration better than 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!! ....from 0.2" to 0.3" Wouldn't that be a 50% increase? 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, paulythegun said: QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!! ....from 0.2" to 0.3" Your math isn't mathing lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Wouldn't that be a 50% increase? haha right. Dew points kind of suck on this run....never gets below freezing inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: stiill snowing at 45, Ji back edge approaching, little, longer duration about 7 to 8 hr. of snow. Ration better than 10-1. maybe for the northern folks... kuchera is worse for all but them. Not that Kuchera is 100% gonna nail it, but just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If this thing arrived during the day, with this middling airmass (and middling moisture that isn't going to overcome temps outside of localized banding), I guess it would just be some wet white rain right? For the city at least. At least if you buy NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: maybe for the northern folks... kuchera is worse for all but them. Not that Kuchera is 100% gonna nail it, but just saying I hear you...but it did come in a bit wetter...we gotta like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: I hear you...but it did come in a bit wetter...we gotta like that. thought it was better for sure. 3k looks about the same as it did last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am sure beet juice warning will be hoisted soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If the NAM could just adjust the QPF min over one of your houses and not mine, I’d be good with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 What a night. Ok. Seems like things are status quo? My expectations are a 1-2 deal for the city. Think I’m good for it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside I don't like seeing how north it is getting. Like some have said, there are two max bands, one with heaviest qpf and bad temps and one with great temps and solid qpf. The colder of those two bands seems to be drifting up into southern PA on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The snow maps on the NAM are wacky. The Kuchera map is showing less than the 10:1 for my area. There is no way in hell with the sounding that it shows that I’d be less than 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Time to beg @MikeTFox5 to post the latest Graf Model. Will report back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What a night. Ok. Seems like things are status quo? My expectations are a 1-2 deal for the city. Think I’m good for it My bar is 2". But yeah... 1-3 sounds good and let the chips fall where they may on anything more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Oh... yes the favored areas to get the most and the such... but a bit of a surprise to see URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-152300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.240217T0000Z-240217T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 946 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible with localized amounts up to 8 inches possible along the higher western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NOAA has a new link for the NBM snowfall. It's really slick: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&timeZone=local&hourFormat=12&x4dviewState={"latitude"%3A40.5%2C"longitude"%3A-100%2C"bearing"%3A0%2C"pitch"%3A20%2C"zoom"%3A4}&dset=HREF-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dGrid={"HREF"%3A{"url"%3A[40.5%2C-100%2C388%2C270]}}&x4dMapStyle=2D&x4dMaps={"basemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Mapbox"}%2C"simpleBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Dark"}%2C"mapboxBasemap"%3A{"value"%3A"Satellite"}} 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3k NAM soundings show strong lift in a saturated DGZ around 7z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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