Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Part of it is the duration. It's like a 5 hour storm. It would be nice to enhance QPF and duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Other than padding stats a tiny bit, what's the difference? With mid Feb sun and and high temps of 40, 3 inches will disappear just as quickly as 1-2. Except it falls overnight and never gets above 35 on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol...ol dc split with these two maximas....DC split is 1 to 3. Everybody else north and south is 2-4. And it did come in drier than 12z It moved the banding features around about one county and is about .05 dryer overall. These are noise changes at 60-72. If this was a bigger storm we wouldn’t even note that kind of shift but it matters when we’re trying to get hit by these two little meso bands because it’s mostly a weak POS wave. And a slight qpf change looks more significant when it’s less qpf to begin with. But those bands are going to shift around 20 miles every run until game time and change in intensity some. We wouldn’t expect a model to nail the exact location and qpf of a meso band within a larger storm at 60 hours. That still applies here even though the meso band is all there is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Except it falls overnight and never gets above 35 on Saturday 40+ for us in the coastal plain…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, psuhoffman said: It moved the banding features around about one county and is about .05 dryer overall. These are noise changes at 60-72. If this was a bigger storm we wouldn’t even note that kind of shift but it matters when we’re trying to get hit by these two little meso bands because it’s mostly a weak POS wave. And a slight qpf change looks more significant when it’s less qpf to begin with. But those bands are going to shift around 20 miles every run until game time and change in intensity some. We wouldn’t expect a model to nail the exact location and qpf of a meso band within a larger storm at 60 hours. That still applies here even though the meso band is all there is. we know where the meso bands will be (Parr's Ridge) No reason to wait. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Except it falls overnight and never gets above 35 on Saturday Where? PSU's yard? Forecast high for greater DC-Baltimore area is 40 with plenty of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It moved the banding features around about one county and is about .05 dryer overall. These are noise changes at 60-72. If this was a bigger storm we wouldn’t even note that kind of shift but it matters when we’re trying to get hit by these two little meso bands because it’s mostly a weak POS wave. And a slight qpf change looks more significant when it’s less qpf to begin with. But those bands are going to shift around 20 miles every run until game time and change in intensity some. We wouldn’t expect a model to nail the exact location and qpf of a meso band within a larger storm at 60 hours. That still applies here even though the meso band is all there is. Euro always seems to do something wonky at this timeframe. Ask the NE crew a couple days ago when they were all jumping off the ledge. It had next to nothing in your yard and like 3" here for a run lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where? PSU's yard? Forecast high for greater DC-Baltimore area is 40 with plenty of sun. It becomes mostly sunny about 3pm not much heating there with 2+” everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Part of it is the duration. It's like a 5 hour storm. It would be nice to enhance QPF and duration Yea let's see if we can play the February temperature gradient and make this a 4-8" overrunning event hmm??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FINAL CALL 2-4" W of line from Leesburg to Westminster with 4-6" lollies 1-3" W of line Manassas to BWI T-2" ESE of that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: Gfs dews are 5 degrees colder than the NAM's heading into the event. When you “say” NAM, can you hear yourself? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When you “say” NAM, can you hear yourself? Lol Lying to oneself, delusional thinking, and cognitive dissonance are often comorbid with the masochism that comes with being a mid-atlantic snow lover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Lying to oneself, delusional thinking, and cognitive dissonance are often comorbid with the masochism that comes with being a mid-atlantic snow lover. All very valid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 PLUMES:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z EPS 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Time for NAM tricks. You just know it’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 TT doesn't have it. Any news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, peribonca said: TT doesn't have it. Any news? I like this free site better for some features. It is faster too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021500&fh=27&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ok folks, NAM is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ok ,so far, looks a bit drier out west. But the good panels are upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Colder so far...waiting for next panels to see if it's drier over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Colder so far...waiting for next panels to see if it's drier over us Looks better with temps this holds through 0z and 12z tomorrow, I’ll be more interested 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Colder...wetter south of DC...but ratios probably better up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WB 12K NAM 4am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ok yall..won't be here for the GFS pbp...got Valentines shit to do. Good luck 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1pm..GN.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Both NAMs were a little dry and boring lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hi-Res FV3 looks good 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hi-Res FV3 looks good Yea I think as we get into tomorrow runs we are going to see an uptick with more lift and some more temperature gradient stuff just a hunch. Bottom line I think we work ourselves into a 3-6" event over a wider area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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