A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm actually concerned about precip cutting off for a while .... How accurate is this http://coolwx.com/ptype/ and this http://coolwx.com/cg...2506&field=prec It's based on the 6z GFS and shows mostly rain out at Brookhaven/Upton.... but mostly snow at LGA. It didnt have one for JFK but when I ran the p-type loop it showed the mix line just south and east of here, so basically, this thing shouldnt trend any further west or else it might mix here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm actually concerned about precip cutting off for a while .... Amazing how fast things can change. Went from a sea storm to worrying about the dreaded dry slot cutting down on big accumulations. Got too love mother nature. I'll take whatever I get and be happy, no one in the MA can complain after last year, well except for Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I did want to mention how everyone was boo-hoo'ing the CRAS model with its strong solution really looking like it was on to something now some may say its always wound up so its the boy who cried wolf, and that debate will never end but the fact is, like last year, it has had its golden momments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ensemble members. All look pretty consistent with each other. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zp72f072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ensemble members. All look pretty consistent with each other. http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f072.html I honestly don't remember such consistency amongst ensemble members for BWI like that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cutting off where? Looking at your username info... I can't tell whether you're from China or Connecticut Avenue. if you've been to Connecticut Avenue lately, you wouldn't know the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry ... In my earlier posts I was talking about the big cities along I-95 .... Cutting off where? Looking at your username info... I can't tell whether you're from China or Connecticut Avenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I honestly don't remember such consistency amongst ensemble members for BWI like that before Thinking the same thing. Seems like you always have an odd ball or two pop up. Looking at the 500 as well and they were very consistent as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 if you've been to Connecticut Avenue lately, you wouldn't know the difference Seen China out the window of a KC-135 Tanker (on my way to Thailand)........but never set foot there. As for Connecticut Avenue in Washington D.C....I once saved a young man's life there. Yes................walking by the Dupont Circle Metro one night....I happened upon a young man hanging by his fingertips over the ledge. The drop was easily fatal so I yelled to all nearby..."help!!!" Long and short of it was..................he'd just broken up with his girlfriend and was about to commit suicide. With my hands and the help of others we pulled him back from death. And so it goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 03Z sref are not quite as bullish as the 06Z. 50 percent of the members get .50 to dc and the ensemble mean is .50" over DC and BWI. Certainly it looks like the potential of a major storm is now above 50% especially east of I(% in the dc area and northward elsewhere into new England. Later today I'll make a guess. The NAM qpf looks a little funny, elongated shape of the 850 circulation is much of the problem. Anyone, those that bought the GFS early congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 03Z sref are not quite as bullish as the 06Z. 50 percent of the members get .50 to dc and the ensemble mean is .50" over DC and BWI. Certainly it looks like the potential of a major storm is now above 50% especially east of I(% in the dc area and northward elsewhere into new England. Later today I'll make a guess. The NAM qpf looks a little funny, elongated shape of the 850 circulation is much of the problem. Anyone, those that bought the GFS early congrats. Merry Christmas, Wes. You've brought joy to weenies all over the east. Are you Santa?!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBU_White Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Don't know what it is about these most recent few NAM runs that bothers me...trying to remain objective but down here in the DC area, I do not see how (at such an early stage in the life cycle of the storm) the NAM manages to produce such a narrow, concentrated band over the Tidewater, and then kill that and redevelop the heavy precip by Philly and points NE. I suppose it's possible, but at this point, I'm going with a blend of non-NMM SREF members and GFS/GEFS. The ensemble probabilities for > 0.5 inches in N VA are well above 50%...I have 2-4 inches Blueridge, 4-8 N VA I-95 West, 8-12 I-95 east to Laurel and BWI and 12+ along W shore of Chesapeake until you get far enough SE to go to rain. I'm dubbing this the "Christmas Miracle" Blizzard of 2010 because I think you'll see blizzard conditions verify in the NYC metro area even though DC is spared the worst. (I am a grad student in the field at Stony Brook, but my heart is in D (my family home) and I'm down there right now for the holiday. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I did want to mention how everyone was boo-hoo'ing the CRAS model with its strong solution really looking like it was on to something now some may say its always wound up so its the boy who cried wolf, and that debate will never end but the fact is, like last year, it has had its golden momments For whatever reason, the CRAS excels sniffing out the big storms and certain synoptic situation which the hi-res models struggle with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For whatever reason, the CRAS excels sniffing out the big storms and certain synoptic situation which the hi-res models struggle with. FWiw did you see the CRAs 0z? It winds the thing up so early and so much that it slides east as it goes near the delmarva... super storm for north carolina and south carolina with 20-30'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas, Wes. You've brought joy to weenies all over the east. Are you Santa?!?!?! I put pretty much stunk in my handling of this storm and the gfs still may be too high with its qpf over the dc area. I like the dc wsw though I think they may need to expand it depending on today's runs. The euro still verifies best with QPF at these time ranges though last year with the dec 19th storm I think it was late getting the precip west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't believe that the gas is throwing snow so far back into pa that I might get into something. Going to be interesting watching the radar to see how far west the comma head comes...2 inches would be a huge bonus... Btw, is it common for the precip shield to extend further west than thought with a storm like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AKQ AT 619 WENT WITH A SREF/NAM BLEND THIS PACKAGE...APPEARS GFS CONTS TO HAVE SOME DATA PRBLMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can't believe that the gas is throwing snow so far back into pa that I might get into something. Going to be interesting watching the radar to see how far west the comma head comes...2 inches would be a huge bonus... Btw, is it common for the precip shield to extend further west than thought with a storm like this? We always seem to do a little better than the GFS depicts on coastal storms, mostly due to it's known bias. Like we saw in February, the big totals crept north and west until we were getting 20'+. Of course normally we talking about a storm that is hugging....or a bit inland as it develops. The 500 low is always key. I can't say we have too many analogs though for a storm that is off the Carolina coast. Maybe November 1950 - but that is a once in a lifetime type setup. So probably not our storm...but it's amazing how some of the 06Z GFS ensembles are throwing that .5-.75 line back into westcentral PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksweeley Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AKQ AT 619 WENT WITH A SREF/NAM BLEND THIS PACKAGE...APPEARS GFS CONTS TO HAVE SOME DATA PRBLMS. O.O Where did this come from??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 O.O Where did this come from??? Hpc I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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