showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the ultra weenies that can't get enough snow. Here's another one to follow in the long, long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 10z RUC looks great-- Has closed h85 low at 18 hrs pointing NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is my 8th winter in Wilmington, NC...but having lived through ~ 50 years of MD/DC/DE winters....there is one particular thing that concerns me.....CLOUDS. I love the models as much as anyone here, but over 50 years of empirical evidence tells me that cloud cover is often a critical factor in these borderline situations. I want crystal clear skies at night.....then cloud cover the moment the sun rises. Maximum night cooling; then maximum sun-blocking before precipitation falls makes a world of difference with winter storms. I wold be pleased to hear from anyone how cloud cover will play out over the southeast. Thank you. This is what happened on April 9, 1996 here. Temps dropped into the 20s with clear skies and a heavy frost and quickly clouded up by 8-9 am and it started out as all snow instead of a mix, as it might have otherwise. Ended up with a widespread 6-12 on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Remember that down in Catonsville outside of Baltimore too. Rode out the storm in a bar up the street and it snowed the whole time. Finally walked home around 9 or so just in time for the switch over. Between the winds and the sleet it was pretty painful. Glad I had some liquid antifreeze in me or they may have dug me out of a drift a week later. Always wondered though what the final snow tally would have been if it had stayed all snow. Yeah, I think that would have been better than PD2, which was all snow here and 28 inches. Jan 96 was more dynamic and lasted longer, but that period of sleet at night lowered totals a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looky here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looky here http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html Looking like its going to drop right in. Game on. Was there any doubt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 24 hour GFS clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 48 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is what happened on April 9, 1996 here. Temps dropped into the 20s with clear skies and a heavy frost and quickly clouded up by 8-9 am and it started out as all snow instead of a mix, as it might have otherwise. Ended up with a widespread 6-12 on Long Island. That was a big reason NYC/LI got slammed unexpectedly on the first day of the 12/2003 event, crazy radiational cooling and dry air from the CT Valley and MA advected down in the morning since those areas were clear the night before and were down in the single numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That was a big reason NYC/LI got slammed unexpectedly on the first day of the 12/2003 event, crazy radiational cooling and dry air from the CT Valley and MA advected down in the morning since those areas were clear the night before and were down in the single numbers. I remember that vividly, SG, and the thing that made the snow even heavier was that the mix line was literally 5-10 miles south of Long Island ALL DAY on that first day-- so we were literally sweating it out! We led the area in snowfall totals and were supposed to equal it the next day but somehow we got robbed of the moisture and it ended up further east on the Island so Farmingdale ended up getting 19" and we had 14" here-- even though snowfall ratios would have been amazing on the second day with temps in the low 20s lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you have a chance, show, can you post the 72 hr GFS clown maps-- that should be storm total. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does the 6z GFS have any support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ensembles are coming in. Dare I say they may look even better then the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks! Well, the MM5 is almost a duplicate of the GFS, and the EURO, SREF and RGEM have also trended west to give us big hits. Every one of them is inside the benchmark now. It's just the NAM with the OTS solution now and that hasnt been too reliable or consistent of a model so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :snowman: Ensem 72 presip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nice-- widespread 1.25" qpf and still has that dot of 1.50" on the jersey coast lol. About the same as OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For comparison here's the 00Z ensem total prec map. There is an expansion to the west almost all the way up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06Z GFS is a smidge to the west of the 00Z ... if this keeps up, I'm concerned about all the dry air that is being wrapped up with this storm. It may be an issue for the big cities along the I-95 corridor and knock down these accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Comparison between op and ensem. ensem op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06Z GFS is a smidge to the west of the 00Z ... if this keeps up, I'm concerned about all the dry air that is being wrapped up with this storm. It may be an issue for the big cities along the I-95 corridor and knock down these accumulations. Is that why the total qpf being depicted by the gfs is actually a bit less for the coast than it was with the 0z? Even with the storm stalling out 25-50 miles east of south Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSU2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 06Z GFS is a smidge to the west of the 00Z ... if this keeps up, I'm concerned about all the dry air that is being wrapped up with this storm. It may be an issue for the big cities along the I-95 corridor and knock down these accumulations. Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line. Should stay south and east of PHL. ACY would likely change over for a time. Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just remember last weeks storm precip wise the gfs nailed it nam failed big time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For weather geeks, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago..........it's all about the ride. While most here are of the computer age.....you can take it to the bank some of us are from the days when our only access was the synoptics in the morning paper and the "advanced" technology of dialing 966-1212 on the rotary telephone to get hourly data updates of the basics. We would track the hourly data...then step outside to confirm what we got on the phone. Well... accuracy has improved thanks to computers..............but its still the same ride. That's what separates us from the rest of the crowd. Win or lose....it's the ride that counts. You know it; I know it...and the rest of the world has little or no clue. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just remember last weeks storm precip wise the gfs nailed it nam failed big time.... NAM has been the most inconsistent model this season. Well, they all have lol but the NAM moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Getting into the now casting phase. Any Mets want to chime in on how things are looking with the current conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line. Should stay south and east of PHL. ACY would likely change over for a time. Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day. ERIC Eastern LI east of Islip may change over for a while also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For weather geeks, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago..........it's all about the ride. While most here are of the computer age.....you can take it to the bank some of us are from the days when our only access was the synoptics in the morning paper and the "advanced" technology of dialing 966-1212 on the rotary telephone to get hourly data updates of the basics. We would track the hourly data...then step outside to confirm what we got on the phone. Well... accuracy has improved thanks to computers..............but its still the same ride. That's what separates us from the rest of the crowd. Win or lose....it's the ride that counts. You know it; I know it...and the rest of the world has little or no clue. Cheers. Yes, this is true. I get even more enjoyment out of tracking these storms than the actual storm sometimes because by that time, youre thinking about what happens when its over lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxClimate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm actually concerned about precip cutting off for a while .... Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line. Should stay south and east of PHL. ACY would likely change over for a time. Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day. ERIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm actually concerned about precip cutting off for a while .... I'd say you are spot on--- when these things wind up as depicted, there will be a nasty dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just glanced over the ensemble members and they all show a great hit all the way up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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