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06z Model Thread


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This is my 8th winter in Wilmington, NC...but having lived through ~ 50 years of MD/DC/DE winters....there is one particular thing that concerns me.....CLOUDS.

I love the models as much as anyone here, but over 50 years of empirical evidence tells me that cloud cover is often a critical factor in these borderline situations.

I want crystal clear skies at night.....then cloud cover the moment the sun rises.

Maximum night cooling; then maximum sun-blocking before precipitation falls makes a world of difference with winter storms.

I wold be pleased to hear from anyone how cloud cover will play out over the southeast.

Thank you.

This is what happened on April 9, 1996 here. Temps dropped into the 20s with clear skies and a heavy frost and quickly clouded up by 8-9 am and it started out as all snow instead of a mix, as it might have otherwise. Ended up with a widespread 6-12 on Long Island.

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Remember that down in Catonsville outside of Baltimore too. Rode out the storm in a bar up the street and it snowed the whole time. Finally walked home around 9 or so just in time for the switch over. Between the winds and the sleet it was pretty painful. Glad I had some liquid antifreeze in me or they may have dug me out of a drift a week later. :lmao:

Always wondered though what the final snow tally would have been if it had stayed all snow.

Yeah, I think that would have been better than PD2, which was all snow here and 28 inches. Jan 96 was more dynamic and lasted longer, but that period of sleet at night lowered totals a bit.

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This is what happened on April 9, 1996 here. Temps dropped into the 20s with clear skies and a heavy frost and quickly clouded up by 8-9 am and it started out as all snow instead of a mix, as it might have otherwise. Ended up with a widespread 6-12 on Long Island.

That was a big reason NYC/LI got slammed unexpectedly on the first day of the 12/2003 event, crazy radiational cooling and dry air from the CT Valley and MA advected down in the morning since those areas were clear the night before and were down in the single numbers.

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That was a big reason NYC/LI got slammed unexpectedly on the first day of the 12/2003 event, crazy radiational cooling and dry air from the CT Valley and MA advected down in the morning since those areas were clear the night before and were down in the single numbers.

I remember that vividly, SG, and the thing that made the snow even heavier was that the mix line was literally 5-10 miles south of Long Island ALL DAY on that first day-- so we were literally sweating it out! We led the area in snowfall totals and were supposed to equal it the next day but somehow we got robbed of the moisture and it ended up further east on the Island so Farmingdale ended up getting 19" and we had 14" here-- even though snowfall ratios would have been amazing on the second day with temps in the low 20s lol.

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Thanks! Well, the MM5 is almost a duplicate of the GFS, and the EURO, SREF and RGEM have also trended west to give us big hits. Every one of them is inside the benchmark now.

It's just the NAM with the OTS solution now and that hasnt been too reliable or consistent of a model so far this season.

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The 06Z GFS is a smidge to the west of the 00Z ...

if this keeps up, I'm concerned about all the dry air that is being wrapped up with this storm. It may be an issue for the big cities along the I-95 corridor and knock down these accumulations.

Is that why the total qpf being depicted by the gfs is actually a bit less for the coast than it was with the 0z? Even with the storm stalling out 25-50 miles east of south Jersey?

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The 06Z GFS is a smidge to the west of the 00Z ...

if this keeps up, I'm concerned about all the dry air that is being wrapped up with this storm. It may be an issue for the big cities along the I-95 corridor and knock down these accumulations.

Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line.

Should stay south and east of PHL.

ACY would likely change over for a time.

Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day.

ERIC

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For weather geeks, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago..........it's all about the ride.

While most here are of the computer age.....you can take it to the bank some of us are from the days when our only access was the synoptics in the morning paper and the "advanced" technology of dialing 966-1212 on the rotary telephone to get hourly data updates of the basics.

We would track the hourly data...then step outside to confirm what we got on the phone.

Well... accuracy has improved thanks to computers..............but its still the same ride. That's what separates us from the rest of the crowd.

Win or lose....it's the ride that counts. You know it; I know it...and the rest of the world has little or no clue.

Cheers.

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Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line.

Should stay south and east of PHL.

ACY would likely change over for a time.

Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day.

ERIC

Eastern LI east of Islip may change over for a while also.

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For weather geeks, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago..........it's all about the ride.

While most here are of the computer age.....you can take it to the bank some of us are from the days when our only access was the synoptics in the morning paper and the "advanced" technology of dialing 966-1212 on the rotary telephone to get hourly data updates of the basics.

We would track the hourly data...then step outside to confirm what we got on the phone.

Well... accuracy has improved thanks to computers..............but its still the same ride. That's what separates us from the rest of the crowd.

Win or lose....it's the ride that counts. You know it; I know it...and the rest of the world has little or no clue.

Cheers.

Yes, this is true. I get even more enjoyment out of tracking these storms than the actual storm sometimes because by that time, youre thinking about what happens when its over lol.

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I'm actually concerned about precip cutting off for a while ....

Something to monitor for sure. Also the rain/snow line.

Should stay south and east of PHL.

ACY would likely change over for a time.

Those minor details are also tough to forecast. Nowcast situation as they say on game day.

ERIC

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