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06z Model Thread


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The Ridge is really starting to pump up in the west. I'm finding that equally as impressive as the energy diving down.

Always felt that was the problem we had from the runs from a few days ago. Showed it to far to the east with lower heights and broader. Thought that we needed to see that stronger and sharper to get it up the coast with the ridge in that position and that's what it's doing. Of coarse, what do I know. :arrowhead:

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its actually good to have something slightly out to sea, because everything else is trending so close to the coast, that if it gets any closer we will have mix issues. GFS and MM5 are almost a perfect match right now. RGEM is a big hit also. SREF trended west again. EURO trended west too.

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WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks!

OMG. Just woke back up I'm shocked the GFS held...I expected it to come east a little bit or something NAM is garbage,,I hope, lol

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DT quote time..>

Maybe IT screwed the pooch?

Honestly... though it did comes west...slightly ;x

does not look any better to my eyes. It has me concerned as I live in Edison,NJ.

I want to mark it up as a 6 Z blip run but honestly it is troublesomes.

makes you wonder about all the bad data and problems with the gfs runs latly per the HPC

yea the euro looked awsome, but this model has been acting awful recently to poor overall

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does not look any better to my eyes. It has me concerned as I live in Edison,NJ.

I want to mark it up as a 6 Z blip run but honestly it is troublesomes.

makes you wonder about all the bad data and problems with the gfs runs latly per the HPC

yea the euro looked awsome, but this model has been acting awful recently to poor overall

Good point but.. time to counter point.

0z Euro, 0z Euro Ensembles, 0z GFS, 0z GFS ensembles, 0z GGEM, 0z RGEM, MM5, RUC, SREF ensmelbes 21z, 3z, 6z GFS all further west.

Its Nam against all...

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Good point but.. time to counter point.

0z Euro, 0z Euro Ensembles, 0z GFS, 0z GFS ensembles, 0z GGEM, 0z RGEM, MM5, RUC, SREF ensmelbes 21z, 3z, 6z GFS all further west.

Its Nam against all...

Im on the jersey shore and the latest gfs actually turns me over to a period of rain. Im hoping hoping things turn out closer to the nams depiction

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Im on the jersey shore and the latest gfs actually turns me over to a period of rain. Im hoping hoping things turn out closer to the nams depiction

well hopefully you get a blend.

Were you turning over to rain with the 0z GFS? If not, that might be a best case scenario for you.

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no....0z soundings showed all snow,,although it was above freezing at the surface. this storm is a nail biter in every way

Plus its not helping that this is occuring in late Dec-- SST are still kind of mild at this point (low 40s). if it was mid Feb, a different story.

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Plus its not helping that this is occuring in late Dec-- SST are still kind of mild at this point (low 40s). if it was mid Feb, a different story.

If I remember correctly with these wound up storms you always seem to have to watch for WAA infusions. So I wouldn't be surprised at some point to see sleet mixed in on the immediate coast.

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If I remember correctly with these wound up storms you always seem to have to watch for WAA infusions. So I wouldn't be surprised at some point to see sleet mixed in on the immediate coast.

Hopefully it wont impinge accumulations too much, we had sleet mix in with Jan 96 for 3 hours and still got 22 inches lol.

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This is my 8th winter in Wilmington, NC...but having lived through ~ 50 years of MD/DC/DE winters....there is one particular thing that concerns me.....CLOUDS.

I love the models as much as anyone here, but over 50 years of empirical evidence tells me that cloud cover is often a critical factor in these borderline situations.

I want crystal clear skies at night.....then cloud cover the moment the sun rises.

Maximum night cooling; then maximum sun-blocking before precipitation falls makes a world of difference with winter storms.

I wold be pleased to hear from anyone how cloud cover will play out over the southeast.

Thank you.

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