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06z Model Thread


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There's always worry about "noise" witht he NAM. Who knows if its right or not, but you have to get that PVA back further NW than what it's showing to get the sfc low and dynamics for qpf (which is all anyone cares about no matter what the sfc low does) back into those regions of the Mid-Atlantic.

The forecast to me in the Mid-Atlantic is about as hard as it gets because I could see them getting a huge storm also not getting much more than some light snow. I think once up to NYC area and northeastward is a bit safer but that is assuming this current suite of models is right. The models have been having all sorts of problems with this setup if it wasn't already obvious.

Couldnt have said it any better Will. Though with the phasing about to take place imminent on the WV loop, I would doubt that this jumps out to sea in the next run or anything drastic like that nfor the NYC neward areas youve mentioned

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This is an absolute New England slaughtering...and my QPF in northern coastal NJ is at .75. Over all though it held serve to 00z

Yeah it doesn't get much better for central/eastern SNE than what most guidance is showing right now for this type of system. But that has been discussed in the NE subforum, I don't want to turn this into a New England discussion. People get angry fast these days.

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No the best PVA will be well northeast of where you have it...its not just PVA either...thats where the best lift is in the mid-levels...but the sfc low is usually not horribly far off there...the sfc low wants the best area of upper level divergence and WAA. That will be well northeast of where your black low is and closer where the red low is.

The NAM is correct where the low is based on 5h...but the question is whether 5h is right...which it might not be.

i think thats my point... the area i've circled.... assume there is no PVA there and that is a feedback error... then would my low position be more correct? maybe not exactly there, but closer to the GA coast.. on further examination.... i agree i drew it too far SW

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i think thats my point... the area i've circled.... assume there is no PVA there and that is a feedback error... then would my low position be more correct? maybe not exactly there, but closer to the GA coast.. on further examination.... i agree i drew it too far SW

I think you are mistaking the H5 Abs Vorticity for PVA. Best PVA is going to be where there is none, but soon will be, if that makes sense. I would place the low somewhere off the coast of SC, given the diffluent flow and vortmax rounding the base of the trough ready to move N/NE on that plot.

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I think you are mistaking the H5 Abs Vorticity for PVA. Best PVA is going to be where there is none, but soon will be, if that makes sense. I would place the low somewhere off the coast of SC, given the diffluent flow and vortmax rounding the base of the trough ready to move N/NE on that plot.

Yes but its tearing energy apart only 12hrs in. I'm no met, so I may be mistaken.

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This is an absolute New England slaughtering...and my QPF in northern coastal NJ is at .75. Over all though it held serve to 00z

Looks like Lee Goldberg might have been right with his 6-12" for NYC and Long Island.... close to one foot out here hopefully lol.

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The NAM was doing strange things off the Carolina coastal region last week with the storm as well...I don't know how it ultimately verified down there but it was very correct in SNE with the heavier snow they got which most models had more east.....the NAM often can fail to throw precip far enough back to the west and northwest into the cold side of low pressure systems...it seems to be doing that to an extent at hours 36 and 42 on the 06Z run.

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The NAM was doing strange things off the Carolina coastal region last week with the storm as well...I don't know how it ultimately verified down there but it was very correct in SNE with the heavier snow they got which most models had more east.....the NAM often can fail to throw precip far enough back to the west and northwest into the cold side of low pressure systems...it seems to be doing that to an extent at hours 36 and 42 on the 06Z run.

Thanks SG-- looks like WSW and Gale Watches were just issued for us.

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WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks!

Pretty much the entire MA from DC East all the way into SNE have 1"+ thru 54 as it slowly winds down... wow

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WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks!

lol u do realize its 5am christmas morning... we are crazy being up, not them for being asleep

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