blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Put this in the other thread. Seems all the models have shifted the low a touch east over the past day or so. 2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Put this in the other thread. Seems all the models have shifted the low a touch east over the past day or so. WWA posted for Baltimore and Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So I know the NWS relies heavily on the HREF. So here is the latest HREF.. Maybe why they arent changing their forecast? Only thing I can think of 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 I can’t even imagine how the forecasters in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre down to the northern Poconos are feeling right now. This was all but a lock for a major snowstorm for them. And it all fell apart just like that. Fortunately it doesn’t look like there’s enough time for this to bust badly in the Lehigh Valley. Worst case, we get like 4” of moderate snow overnight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I can’t even imagine how the forecasters in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre down to the northern Poconos are feeling right now. This was all but a lock for a major snowstorm for them. And it all fell apart just like that. Fortunately it doesn’t look like there’s enough time for this to bust badly in the Lehigh Valley. Worst case, we get like 4” of moderate snow overnight. Agree - also, people in the Philly suburbs weren’t expecting much of anything and may be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 46 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: So I know the NWS relies heavily on the HREF. So here is the latest HREF.. Maybe why they arent changing their forecast? Only thing I can think of The HREF is looked at but I would not say we rely heavily on it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6abc snow totals just now... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 6abc snow totals just now... That 1-3” zone is going to bust terribly. Should be at least 4-8” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hi can this please stop trending S/E. Thanks.... starting to sweat a little bit even here in the LV. Still hoping for a classic 6-10in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 The HRRR has held steady in its past few runs instead of continuing to trend south. Latest run has 6-9” for most of us with snow still falling everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The HRRR has held steady in its past few runs instead of continuing to trend south. Latest run has 6-9” for most of us with snow still falling everywhere.Rap also kicked north a bit fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Heisy said: Hrrr always counts mix as snow accumulation, so cut some off near city for sure, but that run legit crushed our region. That’s def a max potential map . There will be no mix. This is straight rain to snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Hi can this please stop trending S/E. Thanks.... starting to sweat a little bit even here in the LV. Still hoping for a classic 6-10in Yep this is also NOT one of those situations where snow ratios less liquid further north will help you. In order to get the heaviest snow you MUST BE in the heaviest corridor of moisture banding. This could be a rate dependent snow that can flip from snow to rain back to rain depending on rates so there is that variale too. I think if I am forecasting for SE pa like here in Media Delaware County I would call for 3-5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Berks and Lehigh counties look to be in the best spot for this as of now. Probably start as some brief rain, unlike those in Carbon/Monroe counties. But the strongest banding and snowfall rates will slide through south of the Poconos for the longest duration. 6-10" thump in that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: That 1-3” zone is going to bust terribly. Should be at least 4-8” NBC10 pretty much had the same map... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: That 1-3” zone is going to bust terribly. Should be at least 4-8” Too warm for 4-8 in city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Stormman96 said: Too warm for 4-8 in city Exactly. I thought 1-3" was a tad nice. Could happen but the city is generally a heat pit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z GFS maintains from 12z looks locked in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 CBS3 gives Philly just about squat... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NWS kept my 4-7" and only one mile away from the Coopersburg forecast zone of 7-10" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Birds~69 said: CBS3 gives Philly just about squat... They all do Delaware County Coating to 3" honsetly though this is really tough but don't blame the lower totals with ground temps but dynamics can overcome and that is what this storm will be all about dynamics with heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: 18z GFS maintains from 12z looks locked in Snow maps still the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NWS upped my totals to 3" to 7" but down the road in Exton only 2" to 4"....elevation impacts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Snow maps still the same? Yep just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: NWS kept my 4-7" and only one mile away from the Coopersburg forecast zone of 7-10" 3-5" here...no one is mentioning the 30+mph winds which will smash/stick the super wet heavy snow to everything which is kinda cool... 46F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: 3-5" here...no one is mentioning the 30+mph winds which will smash/stick the super wet heavy snow to everything which is kinda cool... 46F Had some of them in the 80's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Upgrading my expectations to 5-8" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Had some of them in the 80's Yep. Tree limbs breaking, transformers exploding, rooftops collapsing....good stuff! 46F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Doesn’t look like Mt Holly is sold on the South shift, judging by their last storm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: . Wow hope this is correct i will take my 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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