WxUSAF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Hugging the hell outta the 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 16 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. Not to be a bummer but anything short of totality just isn't worth making the trip. That 0.3% makes it a completely different experience. I would recommend finding a spot within the path you can drive to without hitting too many major roads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 11 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. clouds won't matter because you're not in the zone of totality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 29 minutes ago, TSG said: Not to be a bummer but anything short of totality just isn't worth making the trip. That 0.3% makes it a completely different experience. I would recommend finding a spot within the path you can drive to without hitting too many major roads. This. But I think I see where he's coming from - at least there's a family connection. But yeah...if you are at 99.9 even - might as well just stay home and watch it with 80-90 percent totality through a solar filtered telescope or glasses. But he's seeing family so I see the approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 28 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: clouds won't matter because you're not in the zone of totality. It still matters for observing the eclipse (even without totality). But yes it won't get dark like totality will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Hugging the hell outta the 12z GGEM Opposite sentiment... Canadian is by far the most aggressive with the precip moving NE right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This. But I think I see where he's coming from - at least there's a family connection. But yeah...if you are at 99.9 even - might as well just stay home and watch it with 80-90 percent totality through a solar filtered telescope or glasses. But he's seeing family so I see the approach. Yeah, even if just a sliver of sun is visible, it won't be the same of course. But agree, if he's looking to be with family then that's the main factor here regardless of whether or not it's 100% total. 50 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It still matters for observing the eclipse (even without totality). But yes it won't get dark like totality will. Yup. If it's too cloudy you won't even get to see the partial coverage with a partial eclipse (with appropriate eye protection of course!), and the same is true in an area that's in the path as you lead up to totality. I've seen a couple of partial eclipses (one was actually a partial annular one), and while of course it doesn't get dark it gives this sort of eerily dim, "3-D" look outside. There's also a neat effect of crescent-looking shadows on the ground anywhere the sun passes through an opening (such as leaves, though not many of those out yet). I, myself, have essentially given up and canceled my trip to Cleveland to my brother and sister-in-law's place. The forecast trends the last few days have not been good for that area, and even if there's no actual rain on Monday the cloud issues just seem like it will be too much. That, plus other logistical issues I'd have driving up there, make it not the most worthwhile. Wasn't an easy decision and it sucks, but oh well. Everyone knew that early April in that area is normally a dubious proposition for clear skies and that this was a possibility. I'll "settle" for observing it here locally (and hope it's not just as bad with clouds even here!!), and hopefully get some good shots of the partial coverage over time using the solar filter I have for my telephoto lens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I’m still rooting for western PA or NY, but it’s looking worse. Don’t think I can stomach a one day trip all the way into the far northeast - we’ll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 On 3/14/2024 at 11:13 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Here’s another theoretical question: if you had to choose between clear skies partial or complete cloudy totality, which do you pick? I'm really having this debate in my head now given the forecast IMBY vs. Ohio. We're probably going anyway, just so we can yell at the clouds all day like the old man in the Simpsons lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 2 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said: We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. Do the bit 'extra' and drive the 5-10 miles to get to totality. You will thank us ALL for the difference. I'm gonna be on the centerline west of Waco (4:30 of darkness) to enjoy. Whether cloudy or sunny, we are meeting some of her family so it has a duel purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Yeah just sharing the experience with our daughter is the big thing. The ZoT is only 15 or so miles away from where we're staying so if the traffic isn't that bad we'll tool on up to Rome or something. But I hate traffic; deal with enough of that around here. And I hate port-a-potties. And I don't like doing my number-one business on some stranger's property without their permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 10 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said: Yeah just sharing the experience with our daughter is the big thing. The ZoT is only 15 or so miles away from where we're staying so if the traffic isn't that bad we'll tool on up to Rome or something. But I hate traffic; deal with enough of that around here. And I hate port-a-potties. And I don't like doing my number-one business on some stranger's property without their permission. https://www.amazon.com/DIBBATU-Disposable-Emergency-Portable-Suitable/dp/B0B9XN7KXW/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=3BNP45XCJJR3S&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.h9JwSZ9bAyWD0hMLpqi9658XqwuArEGMhHzjnezpJBRVf1PaX5V9CnZwmxgVGXJTw2N--I5dhW54xpeWkw3IZeiG656Udy_eE0inyMlY-ZSx8CJgg7uqUbYtWCIpglhM5lcYkGRKukgJWyz5CM9NtUwnyQtavi94-5t7HnBCQzjYsgOLr-9t8w3ERH5lsBckU1LF__p4xjuX2Pwi6buhj5RL9TrbrurMJhux5nnBkYDcuiAfIU-uN5SDJjh5pCogGwtzfhgz2lYOwtXqPi6oyt5-PRitNS-mPrp-jsI5tWk.A0AFhTsQQRFiGpe_7b8uiNOfZqU38XZyM7hnDc2sgB4&dib_tag=se&keywords=urine+bags&qid=1712261474&sprefix=urine+bags%2Caps%2C105&sr=8-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: https://www.amazon.com/DIBBATU-Disposable-Emergency-Portable-Suitable/dp/B0B9XN7KXW/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?crid=3BNP45XCJJR3S&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.h9JwSZ9bAyWD0hMLpqi9658XqwuArEGMhHzjnezpJBRVf1PaX5V9CnZwmxgVGXJTw2N--I5dhW54xpeWkw3IZeiG656Udy_eE0inyMlY-ZSx8CJgg7uqUbYtWCIpglhM5lcYkGRKukgJWyz5CM9NtUwnyQtavi94-5t7HnBCQzjYsgOLr-9t8w3ERH5lsBckU1LF__p4xjuX2Pwi6buhj5RL9TrbrurMJhux5nnBkYDcuiAfIU-uN5SDJjh5pCogGwtzfhgz2lYOwtXqPi6oyt5-PRitNS-mPrp-jsI5tWk.A0AFhTsQQRFiGpe_7b8uiNOfZqU38XZyM7hnDc2sgB4&dib_tag=se&keywords=urine+bags&qid=1712261474&sprefix=urine+bags%2Caps%2C105&sr=8-1-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9hdGY&psc=1 Better than beer bottles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: psst... get excited... 06z tomorrow, NAM range! Finally! I can't wait for a good eclipse NAMing!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 April 8th Eclipse- Least Easy One To See In My Lifetime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that. Almost more fun than snow tracking. Also fun to keep perusing random PA/NY towns to figure out which small town I’d camp in for day. Dewittville? Sure why not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 April 8th Eclipse- Least Easy One To See In My Lifetime If this one doesn’t pan out I may buy my tickets to Spain 2026 pretty quickly. Australia 2028 also isn’t bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 13 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said: We got a hotel room where it's 99.7% totality, in Utica. Our daughter goes to school up near there so we're hooking up with her since her friends can't get their act together to see it. I think we're just going to stay at the hotel and if we miss out on 0.3%, it'll be worth it to have access to a bathroom and not worry about traffic. One thing giving me a little pause is the NWS threat matrix product, which shows 49% sky cover for Monday for Utica at 12 pm. But the p-and-c forecast is mostly sunny. It's 93% out here in the northern Shen Valley. I wouldnt drive anywhere if I wasnt going to see totality. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Things have gotten a bit better for western NY over the last day. We were up in the 60s for cloud cover on NBM and it’s back down into the upper 40s/low 50s as it oscillates back and forth. I’d gamble with that. The OP GFS was trending well until 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The OP GFS was trending well until 12z 18z ticked the middle clouds further SW, low clouds still not a factor... just super aggressive with the high clouds, despite being a bit drier at 18z. I'm fully onboard the "GFS overdoes clouds, especially thin high ones" hopium train at this point... Here's the GEFS cloud thickness, if it was just the 18z and not time lagged it would probably be a few points higher in most places. Worse for WNY but not as much as the op verbatim clouds would suggest. Hopefully that projected thinness comes through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 18z ticked the middle clouds further SW, low clouds still not a factor... just super aggressive with the high clouds, despite being a bit drier at 18z. I'm fully onboard the "GFS overdoes clouds, especially thin high ones" hopium train at this point... Here's the GEFS cloud thickness, if it was just the 18z and not time lagged it would probably be a few points higher in most places. Worse for WNY but not as much as the op verbatim clouds would suggest. Hopefully that projected thinness comes through.It’s better than nothing, but can you see the corona through high clouds? Or is it just easier to see it go dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: If this one doesn’t pan out I may buy my tickets to Spain 2026 pretty quickly. Australia 2028 also isn’t bad. I’d love to go to the Sydney one… I really want to see the southern hemisphere night sky too. I’m not sure my kids and I could endure the long plane flight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 15 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I’d love to go to the Sydney one… I really want to see the southern hemisphere night sky too. I’m not sure my kids and I could endure the long plane flight though. Yep it's a looooooooooooooooong flight over, about 16 to 19 hours. I would be reading about 500 blogging pdf's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s better than nothing, but can you see the corona through high clouds? Or is it just easier to see it go dark? I have tried the hopium. Has a hell of a hangover and I still can't see the eclipse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 4 hours ago, 09-10 analogy said: Yeah just sharing the experience with our daughter is the big thing. The ZoT is only 15 or so miles away from where we're staying so if the traffic isn't that bad we'll tool on up to Rome or something. But I hate traffic; deal with enough of that around here. And I hate port-a-potties. And I don't like doing my number-one business on some stranger's property without their permission. I am a delivery guy at 4am. Gotta be fast. If you are quick then you can get away with anything, permission or no permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 I’m shifting my attention to the Syracuse area. Realizing it’s really not much further than SWNY and the forecast seems slightly brighter there. Here’s hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Tomer changed his % of clear sky solar radiation metrics to 85/60-85/<60, which wasn’t favorable for TX lol. I’m still hugging the GGEM which looks mostly clear for me during eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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