dallen7908 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Maybe clearer here? On July 22, 2028, a total solar eclipse will occur in Australia and New Zealand. The maximum duration of totality for this eclipse will be 5 minutes and 10 seconds. https://nationaleclipse.com/maps/map_07222028.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, dallen7908 said: Maybe clearer here? On July 22, 2028, a total solar eclipse will occur in Australia and New Zealand. The maximum duration of totality for this eclipse will be 5 minutes and 10 seconds. https://nationaleclipse.com/maps/map_07222028.html Oooh Sydney is right in the center of totality at 2 PM! That's gonna be a huge event. At first I thought aw man mid-winter but July is actually their 3rd sunniest month in terms of percent of possible sunshine. Average highs in the 60s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Oooh Sydney is right in the center of totality at 2 PM! That's gonna be a huge event. At first I thought aw man mid-winter but July is actually their 3rd sunniest month in terms of percent of possible sunshine. Average highs in the 60s <AussieAccent>Right, mate! Throw some shrimp on the barbey and enjoy a cold one whilst watching the sun disappear! That's how we do it right downunder!</AussieAccent> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 GFS continues to look completely awful for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area. Just about the worst possible outcome with rain all day as the low goes right through Ohio. Guess we'll see but I don't like the trends in that shortwave that runs into the Omega block, even on the Euro and the ensembles. Although the Euro is much farther northwest with the low and the precip looks a lot more scattered. Almost wonder if it might be better to just stay local here in the DC area and observe a partial eclipse (~87% coverage), and get some photos of that (I have a solar filter for this purpose). At least so far, it looks pretty clear around this region. Might have to see until later in the week. Still may say screw it and go up to see family in Ohio and at least have a fun visit even if it rains all damned day Monday and you can't see anything other than it getting darker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: GFS continues to look completely awful for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area. Just about the worst possible outcome with rain all day as the low goes right through Ohio. Guess we'll see but I don't like the trends in that shortwave that runs into the Omega block, even on the Euro and the ensembles. Although the Euro is much farther northwest with the low and the precip looks a lot more scattered. Almost wonder if it might be better to just stay local here in the DC area and observe a partial eclipse (~87% coverage), and get some photos of that (I have a solar filter for this purpose). At least so far, it looks pretty clear around this region. Might have to see until later in the week. Still may say screw it and go up to see family in Ohio and at least have a fun visit even if it rains all damned day Monday and you can't see anything other than it getting darker. I think a positive is it got much weaker. For this run, that unfortunately does not help Ohio much. It does improve things further NE and verbatim there’s just a spike of partial high clouds over WNY and then clear rest of the way. Maybe it can trend weaker over the next couple runs and more south and the cloud/rain line can retreat from the Lake Erie/Ontario coastlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 41 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Oooh Sydney is right in the center of totality at 2 PM! That's gonna be a huge event. At first I thought aw man mid-winter but July is actually their 3rd sunniest month in terms of percent of possible sunshine. Average highs in the 60s Count me in mate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, baltosquid said: I think a positive is it got much weaker. For this run, that unfortunately does not help Ohio much. It does improve things further NE and verbatim there’s just a spike of partial high clouds over WNY and then clear rest of the way. Maybe it can trend weaker over the next couple runs and more south and the cloud/rain line can retreat from the Lake Erie/Ontario coastlines. GFS also sucks with cloud cover so I’d gamble in WNY with that verbatim on the 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Uh oh more clouds may move in Monday lol. These model runs are tough to look at. Definitely gonna make sure I have enough beers and some liquor around. I dont drink much but if we have clouds building in tough for Monday, I'll drink myself right into a serious stupor, probably end up right in the ER, over a dumb cloudy eclipse lmao. There's always Sydney in 2028 but that trip is gonna be pricey pricey pricey pricey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 17 minutes ago, Jebman said: Uh oh more clouds may move in Monday lol. These model runs are tough to look at. Definitely gonna make sure I have enough beers and some liquor around. I dont drink much but if we have clouds building in tough for Monday, I'll drink myself right into a serious stupor, probably end up right in the ER, over a dumb cloudy eclipse lmao. There's always Sydney in 2028 but that trip is gonna be pricey pricey pricey pricey. A cloudy eclipse sounds super lame lol. It's all cloudy and rainy, then suddenly it gets dark. I'd just think I was about to get clobbered with a heavy downpour lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone. If things look shtty (completely cloudy) for Niagara Falls on Friday, I’m going to book something last minute in Maine/New England. We’d lose 50% of our AirB&B but I want to see the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 It seems the longer the system in New England this week sticks around, the worse it is for the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2 hours ago, Winter Wizard said: I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone. Damn I hate Texas. This GD place is always cloudy with catastrophic rains during total eclipses. This happened here 600 years ago during the last total eclipse in Central Texas. I am officially cursed. I despise where I live and I hate my cloudy, torrentially rainy life too! I am officially shyte out of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Nice to see a positive shift on the 00z GEFS for the Great Lakes area. The shortwave is further back to the west and its dropped a lot of its SLPs that were in the OH valley. And the HP ridging is extending further west. 6z is rolling in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: Nice to see a positive shift on the 00z GEFS for the Great Lakes area. The shortwave is further back to the west and its dropped a lot of its SLPs that were in the OH valley. And the HP ridging is extending further west. 6z is rolling in now. TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems. Agree and this is way more of an IMBY sport than snowfall is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 06z GFS continues idea of having the low dissipate before it can traverse the lakes fully which reduces the eastern extent of the cloud cover - using the basic, overdone GFS cloud product. It seems like the bleeding may have stopped for the northeast but for my chosen WNY spot, it has still gone from looking like an 80% or more chance of getting a viewing window to closer to a coin flip. Hopefully there’s a bit of a countertrend today… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: TX and the Ohio area seem like a zero sum game. Improvement for one means worse weather for the other. Slower progression and a weaker system of that initial low increases cloud and shower chances for TX it seems. Let's just root for the CMC... It will work for both Texas and NY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 The omega block: 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: The omega block: I think we're tied to that departing storm off the NE coast. I think if that moves out a bit sooner, it'd help to press that block down? With that lingering longer, it's making it possible for the next wave to undercut that ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Heading to my in-laws Friday morning in Saranac NY. The kids are off of school Friday and next Wednesday so we are letting them miss Monday and Tuesday as well. My wife's friend is having an eclipse party...which will be awesome. My kids are 6 and 8, I think this will be one of those life events that they will always remember. The weather looks decent right now...may be dealing with some high clouds but if that's the worst it gets, I'm cool with that. Also, they are forecast to get 14-22" of snow the next couple days. Ironically that will make up for the lack of snowcover from when we were up there around Christmas. Kids are fired up for that! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Best place to head for April 8th is New England surprise, surprise. Austin is desperately hoping for a few breaks at noon, lol. It is what it is. I'll watch it on YouTube, and I won't even hurt my eyes. Next one is in '47. Hey, that's only 23 years away. That's not long at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Tomer’s eclipse city dashboard shows 77% of ensemble members have “favorable” or “somewhat favorable” conditions for eclipse viewing west of Austin. Despite the NBM showing 65-80% cloud cover. So maybe that implies just thin cirrus?? That’s what I’m hoping for at this point. I’ll definitely take the under on just about any prediction of convective cloud cover around the totality path. As I recall from 2017, only the hrrr actually accounted for the reduction in insolation? And it made a visible difference in cumulus coverage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Tomer’s eclipse city dashboard shows 77% of ensemble members have “favorable” or “somewhat favorable” conditions for eclipse viewing west of Austin. Despite the NBM showing 65-80% cloud cover. So maybe that implies just thin cirrus?? That’s what I’m hoping for at this point. I’ll definitely take the under on just about any prediction of convective cloud cover around the totality path. As I recall from 2017, only the hrrr actually accounted for the reduction in insolation? And it made a visible difference in cumulus coverage. Yeah there’s definitely some confusing differences between the NBM and tomer’s blend of clouds/shortwave depending on the model. I think NBM is just using clouds? Which could be overdone compared to shortwave. Rochester has the same but smaller conundrum, 70% favorable, 18% somewhat, 12% unfavorable but 51% cloudy on NBM. I think the trends should bring that NBM down though! Combo of faster movement through Texas and quicker dissipation as things move north east could see both ends of the eclipse path luck out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop. I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Just now, MN Transplant said: I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop. I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday Orange peels blocking the sun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I’ve locked in NY, so now it is all about avoiding that leaf of citrus that will develop. I’m sure the roads between Syracuse/Watertown/Rochester will be easy to navigate on Monday All I’d recommend is picking your spot, get there early, and leave well after totality. Most people will get back in the car right after totality ends. Stay put for another few hours and hopefully traffic calms down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: All I’d recommend is picking your spot, get there early, and leave well after totality. Most people will get back in the car right after totality ends. Stay put for another few hours and hopefully traffic calms down. Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key Yup. That was one of my prime criteria in 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, finding somewhere with bathroom access is key I bought little sleeves that you can pee into and it absorbs. Now if there's a #2 situation....outta luck. I bet most public bathrooms in the totality path are going to be overcrowded and disgusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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