baltosquid Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Cautiously optimistic about WNY with the ridging starting to show up on the ensembles, getting inside 300 and got all 3 votes from EPS, GEFS and GEPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: Cautiously optimistic about WNY with the ridging starting to show up on the ensembles, getting inside 300 and got all 3 votes from EPS, GEFS and GEPS. Will be in Niagra Falls Canada so I'm rooting for a fat ol' ridge to park over itself right over the WNY area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Will be in Niagra Falls Canada so I'm rooting for a fat ol' ridge to park over itself right over the WNY area. Rochester for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 On 3/14/2024 at 10:13 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Here’s another theoretical question: if you had to choose between clear skies partial or complete cloudy totality, which do you pick? I would charter a plane and go all-in on totality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 On 2/12/2024 at 5:59 AM, snowfan said: Some in the New England sub have been discussing this. They’re expecting gridlock in NNE parts of NY/VT/NH. I am gonnabe kickin back, enjoyin the eclipse then blasting Billy Joel tracks like Pressure while watching all the traffic with amusement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 10 days out and I’m starting to get worried for Texas… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 My spot in Ohio's looking good... only ten days away, let's lock it up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 10 days out and I’m starting to get worried for Texas…Why I refuse to book flights and hotels for things like this. I’d be panicking. I’ll hop in my car and hope for the best! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically. There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th. A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it. Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path. Hopefully it speeds up or slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Why I refuse to book flights and hotels for things like this. I’d be panicking. I’ll hop in my car and hope for the best! We are doing more than just the eclipse but it would be a bummer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically. There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th. A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it. Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path. Hopefully it speeds up or slows down.People have been jokingly suggesting an eclipse severe weather outbreak. Would be very funny if it happened. $1,000,000 to whoever gets an eclipse tornado photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The GEFS has a convoluted set of solutions that indicate that anything beyond the 4th should be viewed very skeptically. There is a trough entering the lower 48 on the 4th. A fair number of the solutions dig the trough over the intermountain west, and then a following trough interacts with it and ejects it. Unfortunately, that is a pretty rotten result for much of the eclipse path. Hopefully it speeds up or slows down. No surprise there. Everything else is pretty much going to pot. Might as well be the eclipse viewing too. Better yet, very hot and very humid in Austin, very thick clouds no rain at all, perpetuate the multi year drought while we are at it. I won't be surprised, not one little bit. What WILL surprise me, is I DO get to view the April 8th total eclipse in clear skies. That's a decent trough though. This one won't die out like the others. It'll deepen, have storms on it, for Austin and all up and down the Path of Totality. Maybe even some accumulating snows on the northeastern end lol. Take an eclipse snow jebwalk! Now that's something you don't see every day. Millions, even billions of people all jammed up together, obsessed with a once in a lifetime eclipse viewing. Every road in the Path is a parking lot, people are already fed the hell up with they cant get out, runnin outta gas, folks gonnabe fit to explode at the slightest issue! Thick clouds, even severe weather, winter storm warnings on the northeast end. Someone gets slighted, everyone is already mad as all hell at the entire world because the clouds are blocking the damned fooking eclipse all up and down the Path of Totality. Then we get the pissed off mobs, pissed off riots of the Total Eclipse of 2024. Good thing I wont be on the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 EPS from 00z and GEFS from 06z. Nice job by Pivotal of putting the eclipse path on their maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 ^disaster Starting to get pretty worried. trend is for that western trough to be weaker and slower. I was hoping it would actually be faster and clear TX before Monday. But that doesn’t look like it’s happening. So I think I need to continue to root for weaker and slower and hope it doesn’t start pulling moisture into TX until Tuesday or after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 EPS from 00z and GEFS from 06z. Nice job by Pivotal of putting the eclipse path on their maps. Texas Nothing looks great… at least the NE has a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 I'm thinking as the solution is zeroed in on, we'll stop seeing the widespread precipitation as the multitude of solutions that are distributed across the members (slower, four corners? slightly faster, affecting Texas? much faster, ejected to the east?) settles into just one. I'm not really concerned with ops, or ensemble precip maps so much, since they show a lot of signatures of individual members... I think looking at the 500mb, you just have to take that big ridge in the east and feel reasonably good about the chances for anyone at or east of the great lakes portion of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 58 minutes ago, baltosquid said: I'm thinking as the solution is zeroed in on, we'll stop seeing the widespread precipitation as the multitude of solutions that are distributed across the members (slower, four corners? slightly faster, affecting Texas? much faster, ejected to the east?) settles into just one. I'm not really concerned with ops, or ensemble precip maps so much, since they show a lot of signatures of individual members... I think looking at the 500mb, you just have to take that big ridge in the east and feel reasonably good about the chances for anyone at or east of the great lakes portion of the track. At this point the precipitation is just a proxy for cloud cover from the EPS. I do worry about the eastern areas having a leaf of high-level cloudiness come over. I hedged my bets last April and booked hotel rooms in both Louisville (with a target of Bloomington, IN or southern IL) and Syracuse. Worst case scenario for me is probably WxUSAF's best-case scenario, where the trough ends up clearing the Texas area, but is dousing the Ohio River Valley and cloudiness has spread over the rest of the northeastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 GEFS skunks the entire path basically, socked in the whole way across CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 I'll be visiting my brother and sister-in-law in the Cleveland area for the eclipse. My expectations there are not the greatest, as I'm all too familiar with the fact that northeast Ohio plus early April typically equals crappy weather. Not much you can do about it and I'm not in a position to have various disparate locations to go to if needed, on very short notice. However, if by chance it looks cloudy where my brother is but somewhere within say 50 miles is likely to be clear, we may well just drive early on the 8th and set up to watch there. But even that would have to be spur-of-the-moment. My hope is that it's at least reasonably clear for the event. I certainly don't expect completely clear, blue skies with not a wisp of clouds. Not in April in Ohio. As long as it's decently visible in that time frame through the duration of the eclipse I guess. Worst case scenario, I figure, is that we're socked in with crap and it's just a fun couple of days' visit all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 33 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I'm not in a position to have various disparate locations to go to if needed, on very short notice. Same here. We're just going to the house we have booked in Ohio and rolling the dice at this point. It'll still get dark and we've never been to Ohio, so it'll be a fun trip at least seeing a new state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Same here. We're just going to the house we have booked in Ohio and rolling the dice at this point. It'll still get dark and we've never been to Ohio, so it'll be a fun trip at least seeing a new state. Yup, I hear you! I hope you have a great time in Ohio, regardless of how the weather is for the eclipse! But hopefully that will cooperate as well! I grew up in northeast Ohio, which is why I'm familiar with how early April can be. It's not always crap, but it's not typically the best time of year for good weather (hell, the Indians/Guardians have had games SNOWED OUT before!!!). All I can do is cross my fingers that at least a few hours Monday afternoon will be nice enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Somewhat positive start to the 12z suite with gfs and GGEM ops both again weakening and slowing the western trough. Keeps TX dry although verbatim there’s still clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Yes to the sprawling High Pressures over the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 I'm not chasing the eclipse but I'm living vicariously through a friend who is wrapping the eclipse into a two week trip to Mexico. Looking pretty good for her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 12z GEFS continues slower western trough trend, although not weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 22 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We are doing more than just the eclipse but it would be a bummer Ditto. We will be there rain or shine (well minus about 4 minutes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 This is the best this has looked for WNY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 On 3/28/2024 at 3:20 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: My spot in Ohio's looking good... only ten days away, let's lock it up! Isnt it always the 10 day eclipse. Where is the digital blue. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Ridge placement looks improved for the northeast through the 00z ensembles and 06z GEFS. Gotta keep rooting for that low up in Canada to walk back westwards, let that high be totally unmolested! Some PWAT negative anomalies really starting to creep in towards Buffalo now as well, as that shift west moves the moisture train from the gulf farther away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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