nj2va Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Latest model blend. Upstate NY and New England continue to look the best, followed by the MO Valley and Western NY. I’ve noticed an ever so slight increase in cloud cover forecast the last 24 hours in Buffalo. Went from 35-45% to 45-55% range. iPhone app has partly cloudy in Niagara Falls on Monday afternoon…I’d gamble with that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 22 minutes ago, nj2va said: Latest model blend. Upstate NY and New England continue to look the best, followed by the MO Valley and Western NY. I’ve noticed an ever so slight increase in cloud cover forecast the last 24 hours in Buffalo. Went from 35-45% to 45-55% range. iPhone app has partly cloudy in Niagara Falls on Monday afternoon…I’d gamble with that forecast. Thanks. Buda has a 95 percent probability of cloud cover on the 8th. I am getting just as jaded, as my grandpa was years ago. No fookin eclipse for me or for untold millions who put their trust in Texas weather. Too bad the eclipse wasn't Aug 15. That month is always 103 and cloudless. FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK FOOK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Alright the models need to quit it with that low barging into the lakes or we’re going to have trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: Alright the models need to quit it with that low barging into the lakes or we’re going to have trouble Latest from NWS Buffalo. Now on the fringe of our routine forecast range, many eyes will be on Monday, when the path of totality for the highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will cut through much of our forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in good agreement on the longwave pattern early next week, with the sensible weather across our area being dry and on the warmer side, featuring high temperatures mainly in the 50s. At this range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or high clouds through the day, though whether or not these would be dense enough to obscure any view of the eclipse cannot be determined at this time. Stay tuned! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 April 7 thru 10 solid clouds with very good rain chances here in Buda. Forecast continues to solidify up with excellent rains and thick clouds. Multiple thick well-developed cloud decks at various altitudes with efficient moisture transport. Probable low level fog as well, due to rain falling into 70 degree dewpoint airmass at 2 meters. ZERO chance of glimpsing the eclipse thru multiple strong cloud decks. Eclipse watchers, stay far from Austin. It's gonnabe a Rainer, a multi-day soaker. It'll be a Rainer to make Washington DC proud in January in a super Nino with a blazing fiery base state like this past ratter of a winter there. In short, we have a strong soaking Eclipse Special on tap not just on eclipse day but also the preceding day and two days after, for damn good measure!!!!!!!!! I am depressed and inconsolable. This was my last chance in this lifetime. It's just too bad. Go to Mexico. Should be dry hot and sunny. Need to change the title of this ratter of an eclipse to April 8th Rainy, Socked In Son Of A Bytch, Abandon ALL Fookin' Hope, For The Rest Of Your Miserable Lives Eclipse. I'll tell you what's to blame for this frackin' debacle. It's that fiery blazing hot venusian base state, and its partners in crime, the bloated Hadley Cells and fooked up MJO. Just like those sobs did in the Mid Atlantic this past ratter of a pathetically skunked up so called winter. Who's jaded now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, Jebman said: April 7 thru 10 solid clouds with very good rain chances here in Buda. Forecast continues to solidify up with excellent rains and thick clouds. Multiple thick well-developed cloud decks at various altitudes with efficient moisture transport. Probable low level fog as well, due to rain falling into 70 degree dewpoint airmass at 2 meters. ZERO chance of glimpsing the eclipse thru multiple strong cloud decks. Eclipse watchers, stay far from Austin. It's gonnabe a Rainer, a multi-day soaker. It'll be a Rainer to make Washington DC proud in January in a super Nino with a blazing fiery base state like this past ratter of a winter there. In short, we have a strong soaking Eclipse Special on tap not just on eclipse day but also the preceding day and two days after, for damn good measure!!!!!!!!! I am depressed and inconsolable. This was my last chance in this lifetime. It's just too bad. Go to Mexico. Should be dry hot and sunny. Need to change the title of this ratter of an eclipse to April 8th Rainy, Socked In Son Of A Bytch, Abandon ALL Fookin' Hope, For The Rest Of Your Miserable Lives Eclipse. I'll tell you what's to blame for this frackin' debacle. It's that fiery blazing hot venusian base state, and its partners in crime, the bloated Hadley Cells and fooked up MJO. Just like those sobs did in the Mid Atlantic this past ratter of a pathetically skunked up so called winter. Who's jaded now? 0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Another step back on NBM for Western NY overnight. Cloud cover is now up into the 60% range. Workable and I’m not going to panic, but disappointing given it was in the 30% range a few days ago. Hopefully the High holds on long enough to keep the clouds from progressing east Monday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Maine almost looks like a solid bet on the latest GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Maine almost looks like a solid bet on the latest GFS It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy. And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path Apparently GFS has a known bias to overdo cloud cover. I’ve seen that a few places over the last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Another step back on NBM for Western NY overnight. Cloud cover is now up into the 60% range. Workable and I’m not going to panic, but disappointing given it was in the 30% range a few days ago. Hopefully the High holds on long enough to keep the clouds from progressing east Monday afternoon. The OP GFS is the most aggressive in bringing the 500 low east, over Iowa on Monday. The Euro is way west, on the ND/MT border. The GEFS is over ND, with still some good spread in the ensemble members. West doesn’t “save” NY since there still may be a cirrus deck, but it is a lot better than the low going east where it brings lower clouds into play with precip nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The OP GFS is the most aggressive in bringing the 500 low east, over Iowa on Monday. The Euro is way west, on the ND/MT border. The GEFS is over ND, with still some good spread in the ensemble members. West doesn’t “save” NY since there still may be a cirrus deck, but it is a lot better than the low going east where it brings lower clouds into play with precip nearby. If there's a thin or high cloud deck - that might be okay. Obviously clear is best - but supposedly with a thinner or higher deck there can be some pretty cool effects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Euro and GFS ops now both have precip for Erie/Cleveland. That was gonna be my target. I'd hate to drive hours out there with 2 young kids and have clouds. I'm hoping for either a clear cut sunny day forecast or clear clouds. 50/50 is gonna be a tough call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 51 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The OP GFS is the most aggressive in bringing the 500 low east, over Iowa on Monday. The Euro is way west, on the ND/MT border. The GEFS is over ND, with still some good spread in the ensemble members. West doesn’t “save” NY since there still may be a cirrus deck, but it is a lot better than the low going east where it brings lower clouds into play with precip nearby. Yeah, when I looked earlier this morning at the 6z, there was a ton of spread in the midwest on the Member MSLP plots. GEPS has a similar spread in its members from last night so lots of uncertainty to work out over the next few days. I'm just hoping we can hold onto the High long enough to keep the cloud cover at the cirrus level vs low level clouds. We have an AirB&B rented in Niagra Falls (Canada side) but if its full-on cloud cover there (vs cirrus), we might head to upstate NY last minute and just suffer in the traffic afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Euro and GFS ops now both have precip for Erie/Cleveland. That was gonna be my target. I'd hate to drive hours out there with 2 young kids and have clouds. I'm hoping for either a clear cut sunny day forecast or clear clouds. 50/50 is gonna be a tough call.Not looking forward to making the call on Sunday. Room for things to change back but things looked much better a few days ago. Karma for rooting for Texas’ downfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not looking forward to making the call on Sunday. Room for things to change back but things looked much better a few days ago. Karma for rooting for Texas’ downfall lol. We want everyone to throw in the towel and cancel, then have a positive bust with sunny skies. Less traffic this way. Are we having eclipse reapings like we do for winters around here? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 EPS 06z still seems unconvinced by the extreme eastward camp, a touch NW for the low 13 hours before game time. Clustered well around the middle of the Dakotas, nothing east of the Mississippi per lows shown on TT. Hoping the GEFS and GEPS drop their eastern extreme members and cave… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: EPS 06z still seems unconvinced by the extreme eastward camp, a touch NW for the low 13 hours before game time. Clustered well around the middle of the Dakotas, nothing east of the Mississippi per lows shown on TT. Hoping the GEFS and GEPS drop their eastern extreme members and cave… Good news! Would love to see this continue. There’s some spread over the OH valley but nothing like GEFS and GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Ugh...GFS has trended toward a veritable actual washout for the Ohio valley/lower Lakes area. At least the GEFS ensembles are not so enthusiastic about that, though they hedged more in that direction. The Euro, as @baltosquid showed (at least from last night) is much farther west with that shortwave and associated low. Still iffy, but not a total skunk. Heck...I almost wonder if the GFS-like solution is correct in the end, if it would actually be better if that system can speed up quite a bit and clear the area around the lower Lakes by Monday (and weaken it more), rather than being over that region on that day. It almost looked like the GFS was accelerating it a bit, in fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Heck...I almost wonder if the GFS-like solution is correct in the end, if it would actually be better if that system can speed up quite a bit and clear the area around the lower Lakes by Monday (and weaken it more), rather than being over that region on that day. It almost looked like the GFS was accelerating it a bit, in fact. I was wondering about this too… it might look worse before it looks better if the GFS keeps accelerating the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 0z ops look workable? GGEM has clear skies for the eclipse verbatim! Looks like a band of showers moves through Sunday at some point but most of Monday is dry right now. 0z GFS actually has the scenario I was rooting for with the energy more consolidated in the storm that moves into the Plains on Sunday and nothing hanging behind. p.s. NBM cloud map from Pivotal is the best I’ve seen it yet! Well maybe there is some hope. Just in case it is cloudy, I want to make damn sure I can drink myself into a total stupor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It really does look like the best chance for clear skies. Crazy. Maine is clear as Texas, Texas as cloudy as Maine lol. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you lol. Eclipse lovers may need a new hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Well maybe there is some hope. Just in case it is cloudy, I want to make damn sure I can drink myself into a total stupor. I told you not to give up! Texas is looking a lot better than it did before. You can’t jump ship a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I told you not to give up! Texas is looking a lot better than it did before. You can’t jump ship a week out. Thanks, Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 ECMWF took a step in the wrong direction for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 minutes ago, baltosquid said: ECMWF took a step in the wrong direction for the northeast. Yeah, not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 At this point I just hope maybe the trend to squash the whole thing latitudinally might make the clouds a north south dividing line rather than an east west one; I am at this point ready to accept (seethe at) my being screwed in the current longitudinal fiasco and hope maybe to find myself in a better spot if it becomes a latitudinal deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: We want everyone to throw in the towel and cancel, then have a positive bust with sunny skies. Less traffic this way. Are we having eclipse reapings like we do for winters around here? If we are I am due to get Reaped. Reaper, you better don that garment of darkness. You got a job to do. Your sacred chamber is radiating a hellish RED right now! I jumped ship, I believed not only in multiple deep impenetrable cloud decks but also in torrential rains that would have provoked serious loss of life and property in Hays County, Texas, on eclipse day and for a couple of days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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