WxUSAF Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Ensembles trending wrong way for TX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles trending wrong way for TX I’m bringing my passport to hightail it to Mexico if it looks better there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Not ready to put any faith in cloud maps. Willing to use precip as a bit of a proxy for "is it even worth getting hopes up" though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Slight concern though... I hope the high doesn't trend too far north and let something sneak underneath into the lakes region... that's what I'd be most afraid of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 52 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Slight concern though... I hope the high doesn't trend too far north and let something sneak underneath into the lakes region... that's what I'd be most afraid of. The cloud maps from the GFS apparently are terrible from what I was reading on X. Apparently the GEPS is the better product for cloud forecasts. But still a 9 days out so I’m just looking at 500 / MSLP maps. Cautiously optimistic for the NY/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 49 minutes ago, nj2va said: The cloud maps from the GFS apparently are terrible from what I was reading on X. Apparently the GEPS is the better product for cloud forecasts. But still a 9 days out so I’m just looking at 500 / MSLP maps. Cautiously optimistic for the NY/NE. I’m acting concerned for Texas, but I’m on the @WEATHER53 model bust bus. It’ll be fine! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 I don't think the cloud cover maps are worth anything at this lead, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous for TX. Pretty overwhelming signal for at least some cloud cover if not precip at the leeside of the trough. Need that thing to hold off 24 hours or so. Odds have of sunny skies have definitely increased in New England and near the Lakes with the ridge, but I caution that mesoscale processes that can't be sniffed yet have often ruined sunny days. I would not really feel comfortable on the northern edge just knowing climo. I'm staying in San Antonio but bracing for a backup in Arkansas. Backup to the backup is in Illinois or Missouri. And final option would be Boston to northern New England. Hopefully doesn't come to that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 6 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I don't think the cloud cover maps are worth anything at this lead, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous for TX. Pretty overwhelming signal for at least some cloud cover if not precip at the leeside of the trough. Need that thing to hold off 24 hours or so. Odds have of sunny skies have definitely increased in New England and near the Lakes with the ridge, but I caution that mesoscale processes that can't be sniffed yet have often ruined sunny days. I would not really feel comfortable on the northern edge just knowing climo. I'm staying in San Antonio but bracing for a backup in Arkansas. Backup to the backup is in Illinois or Missouri. And final option would be Boston to northern New England. Hopefully doesn't come to that. I might be back to rooting for that front/trough to speed up and stay more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 4 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m bringing my passport to hightail it to Mexico if it looks better there. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Tomer updated his site and changed his algorithm, especially for GEFS since it sucks at cloud cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Tomer updated his site and changed his algorithm, especially for GEFS since it sucks at cloud cover.I’m becoming more interested in NW Pennsylvania or SWNY as opposed to Ohio as my eclipse destination. Haven’t been to that part of the state and have never seen one of the Great Lakes. Maybe make it a 2-for-1er. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m becoming more interested in NW Pennsylvania or SWNY as opposed to Ohio as my eclipse destination. Haven’t been to that part of the state and have never seen one of the Great Lakes. Maybe make it a 2-for-1er. I'm going to somewhere in the Meadville/Edinboro vicinity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 13 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m becoming more interested in NW Pennsylvania or SWNY as opposed to Ohio as my eclipse destination. Haven’t been to that part of the state and have never seen one of the Great Lakes. Maybe make it a 2-for-1er. I would definitely recommend seeing Niagara Falls, I liked that area of New York! Now if I had the money and time (neither of which I have), I would go to Egypt for the 2027 one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I would definitely recommend seeing Niagara Falls, I liked that area of New York! Now if I had the money and time (neither of which I have), I would go to Egypt for the 2027 one. We’re going to NF (NY) the day after. Never been there before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Latest GEFS seems to set up the nailbiter - lots of variance on how the northern low sets up if you look at the member MSLP chart. Just hoping it can't nudge into the ridge so much and set up on the lakes as one camp of members suggests... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 NWS Buffalo starting to mention the forecast in their discussion: While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud cover with any confidence or reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Can we delete this thread and start a new one? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/ Looking pretty good in NY. The risk in the eastern US at this point is simply the location of the cirrus deck. I'm wondering if the best chances for Texas might simply be some clearing mid-day to allow the storms to fire in the afternoon (after the eclipse). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 @MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @MN Transplant I think you’re right for TX. Based on my experience in 2017, the reduced solar will suppress convection for 2-3 hours centered on totality. Cumulus field totally dissipated in South Carolina in 2017 when I was there and reformed after. Still seems like best case for TX is for the storm/trough to be more consolidated and push through with force Sunday and clear behind on Monday. Trend on guidance though is for another shortwave to dump into the trough and get stuck near the 4 corners area. We usually get lots sun and are left wanting for rain, lol. Way of life here. Famous last words........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 3/30/2024 at 8:26 AM, WxUSAF said: Ensembles trending wrong way for TX I am perfectly positioned for this cloudy eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 It's official. 80 percent chance of heavy rain on April 8th. Everyone going to Texas it's high time to bail. It's gonna be a three day cloudy blow. Maybe everyone is gonnabe cloudy. I think there is still time to change airline resses without too much of a penalty. Or take out a home equity loan and charter a 747 and watch the eclipse. Too bad I will miss it for sure. Fook this life, everything is going to shyte. No doubt about that, now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1774862804463538444?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktgNot ideal for anyone… unless you are in Missouri, Arkansas, or really in the NE. We’ll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: It's official. 80 percent chance of heavy rain on April 8th. Everyone going to Texas it's high time to bail. It's gonna be a three day cloudy blow. Maybe everyone is gonnabe cloudy. I think there is still time to change airline resses without too much of a penalty. Or take out a home equity loan and charter a 747 and watch the eclipse. Too bad I will miss it for sure. Fook this life, everything is going to shyte. No doubt about that, now. I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least. Well, you can enjoy the beer, BBQ and brisket, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Well, I'm casting my lot at my brother and sister-in-law's place in the Cleveland area, south of town. Not much choice. Going up there Saturday and returning on Tuesday. I contemplated trying a "secondary" location within an hour or so drive of Cleveland if it looked like it might be clearer the day before, but now just think it won't be worth it. You'd probably have to go a fair bit more to find much different (better?) sky conditions anyhow. Not to mention, I don't care to deal with the mass of crazy traffic and even crazier crowds anywhere along the path, in a place I don't know or don't know exactly where to park and station myself. Just don't have the time, finances, or desire to have backup and backup-of-backup plans, honestly. My hope is that it's reasonably clear enough at least in parts of the sky to see it, or maybe some high but see-through thin clouds...just not thick, socked-in clouds and/or rain. That's really all I expect in that area to be honest. If it's good enough, we'll be able to watch it right from their yard, on the deck! Can't get much easier than that. And, worst case as I said before, if it's crap with complete overcast, at least I can have a fun couple days' visit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve got nonrefundable hotel and airline. I’m coming to Texas. The rain will be dark at least. I'm actually not quite sure what to root for, for anywhere along the path. It seems pretty set right now that if you're in the northeast US, it is looking like the best chances for clear. But from western NY into TX along the path, it gets dicey. Do we hope for that southwestern trough to slow down enough so that the southwest flow of moisture doesn't get to TX and points northeast until after it's over? Or at least not enough to ruin things. And what about that shortwave that's now coming into the upper midwest, that could adversely affect things in IN/OH/PA/western NY? That sort of seems to have gotten stronger and pushed the ridging in the Ohio Valley and east down a bit from what I saw. I kind of hope that shortwave ends up being farther northwest (and/or weaker?) to allow the ridge to stay intact enough at least into Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, Jebman said: It's official. 80 percent chance of heavy rain on April 8th. Everyone going to Texas it's high time to bail. It's gonna be a three day cloudy blow. Maybe everyone is gonnabe cloudy. I think there is still time to change airline resses without too much of a penalty. Or take out a home equity loan and charter a 747 and watch the eclipse. Too bad I will miss it for sure. Fook this life, everything is going to shyte. No doubt about that, now. I wouldn’t give up just yet. It’s still a week away. I have a refundable ticket so I’ll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: I wouldn’t give up just yet. It’s still a week away. I have a refundable ticket so I’ll see how it goes. I would love it if everyone all along the Path could see the eclipse, even if I can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1774862804463538444?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg Not ideal for anyone… unless you are in Missouri, Arkansas, or really in the NE. We’ll see! Looks fine for many outside of Texas and much of Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now