2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread

[wxdude64]

Well, I had about 20-30 minutes of very wet mangled flakes before it ended around 5:30 am. Nada but another T in the book. Course it wasn't my storm, way north, needed about two more 'souther pushes' to put this area in the game, sorta shocked anything fell. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

There was just no way Ballanger Creek, who flipped over 30-45 min after me had close to 3” of snow, equal to places to my north. It’s maddening. I measured 2.25” to 2.4” basically everywhere. Not like the snow drifted. Maybe I missed SOME compaction with the snow at such low SLR, but Yeesh. 

[T. August]

48 minutes ago, Kay said:

 

The suffering of mid-Atlantic snow weenies was already dire. How are we supposed to endure State Highway Snow Measurement. It's just cruel.

Lol Churchville MDOT shop measured 3.5”. Total BS. My cousin’s house NE of there got 2”.

[EastCoast NPZ]

The best part of this storm was the .36" last night and 1.29" today.  I did not realize we got that much rain.  1.65". Wow.  Very nice.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Say what you want, but this was a modeling fiasco.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

I was surprised we got ANY snowfall from this. Zero cold air, no NAO, we were coming off a warm pattern, and the "pattern change" was set to start with the passage of this storm. We don't usually get any snow at the beginning of a pattern change, usuaally in the middle or end of it. 

We wouldn't be having this conversation if this thing tracked north across PA and hit New England with a foot+ of snow. Instead we'd be saying, "ok this is the start of a pattern change, now let's start tracking."

We (far N&W favored areas with elevation) got lucky with this one. 

We don’t always get to decide when we get lucky and  wave tracks perfectly across VA. Yea ideally we want it to happen in a cold pattern and typically that’s when we have a better chance since to get a wave under us usually takes a colder regime. But since we rarely are cold anymore more of these opportunities are happening when it’s warm even in dead winter.  But we used to be able to eke out snow even in a warm regime if we got a perfect amplified enough wave pass. Feb 1997, my senior year in HS, sticks out. That pattern was garbage. Actually a lot of simularity to now with a ridge in southern Canada and pacific puke zonal airmass.  But we got a very similar setup with a perfect stj wave and we got a 4-8” super wet slop snowstorm in northern VA. I lived in Herndon VA then, right next to frying pan park. 
 

There were lots of other examples in the case studies. Storms where I went “how the F was that snow”. Nothing about the pattern was any good except the wave pass. That doesn’t seem to work anymore. Lately when we get a perfect track started during a crap pattern it’s just too warm. The track is irrelevant unless there is a cold regime in place. And that even more a problem since for the last 8 years warm patterns have outnumbered cold ones significantly.