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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
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2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

As of 9:37 AM. That 0.6" 2 miles east of Leesburg checks out compared to mby. Should get a more complete set of obs by noon-ish.


 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)

MARYLAND

...Allegany County...
  Potomac Park 2 NW       5.5   800 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Bellegrove 1 SSE        3.8   831 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Baltimore County...
  Lineboro 4 E            3.5   905 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Bentley Springs 3 SS    2.0   834 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Bentley Springs 6 S     2.0   900 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Bentley Springs 1 E     1.0   720 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Glyndon 1 SW            0.2   844 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Carroll County...
  Manchester 6 WNW        4.3   916 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Manchester 5 WNW        4.1   914 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Taneytown  NE           4.0   915 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Taneytown               2.0   915 AM  2/13  Public
  Westminster 6 NE        1.5   833 AM  2/13  NWS Employee
  Uniontown 3 N           1.1   704 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Westminster 1 NNE       1.0   800 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Cecil County...
  Elkton 2 W              2.5   900 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Rising Sun              1.0   907 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Port Deposit            1.0   905 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Frederick County...
  Sabillasville 3 SSW     4.5   831 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Wolfsville 3 ENE        4.0   800 AM  2/13  Public
  Emmitsburg 1 S          3.0   759 AM  2/13  Emergency Mngr
  Ballenger Creek 1 E     2.8   900 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Thurmont                2.8   910 AM  2/13  Public
  Bloomfield 2 WSW        2.4   800 AM  2/13  NWS Employee
  Utica 2 W               1.5   830 AM  2/13  Public
  Frederick 1 SE          1.0   830 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Adamstown 1 ESE         0.9   920 AM  2/13  NWS Employee

...Garrett County...
  Grantsville 1 NE        7.0   815 AM  2/13  Near Grantsville
  Grantsville             6.5   800 AM  2/13  Public
  Grantsville 5 W         6.0   700 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Frostburg 3 WNW         5.5   801 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Deer Park 6 NE          5.0   700 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Accident 4 E            4.8   700 AM  2/13  Public
  Oakland                 4.0   521 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Kitzmiller 5 NNW        3.8   800 AM  2/13  Swanton, MD

...Harford County...
  Norrisville 1 WSW       3.0   830 AM  2/13  CoCoRaHS
  Forest Hill 1 NNW       2.0   845 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Fallston 3 N            1.0   826 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Churchville 1 SE        0.5   800 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Montgomery County...
  Damascus 3 SSW          1.6   934 AM  2/13  Co-Op Observer
  Washington Grove 1 N    0.5   919 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Washington County...
  Fort Ritchie 1 NE       6.8   735 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Fort Ritchie 1 NNE      6.5   700 AM  2/13  Public
  Funkstown 2 WSW         4.5   900 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Boonsboro               3.7   840 AM  2/13  Public
  Pecktonville 3 NNW      3.6   822 AM  2/13  NWS Employee
  Rohersville 2 WNW       3.5   816 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Boonsboro 3 NNE         3.3   900 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Maugansville  WSW       2.8   700 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Hancock 1 ESE           2.8   809 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Long Meadow 2 W         2.8   726 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

VIRGINIA

...Clarke County...
  Berryville 1 NNW        1.3   705 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Berryville  NW          1.0   700 AM  2/13  Public

...Fairfax County...
  Herndon 1 NNE           0.3   755 AM  2/13  NWS Employee

...Frederick County...
  Gravel Springs 4 W      4.5   923 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Winchester 4 NW         3.5   929 AM  2/13  Public
  Hayfield 1 N            2.3   755 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Winchester 3 E          1.8   816 AM  2/13  Public
  Winchester 2 WNW        1.6   715 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Highland County...
  Hightown 3 NW           4.5   922 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Loudoun County...
  Lovettsville            2.0   919 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Round Hill 1 WNW        1.7   917 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Leesburg 2 E            0.6   918 AM  2/13  NWS Employee

...Madison County...
  Big Meadows             1.5   615 AM  2/13  Park/Forest Srvc

...Nelson County...
  Wintergreen 4 NW        1.5   745 AM  2/13  At Devils Knob, 3500ft
  Wintergreen 3 NW        0.5   730 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Prince William County...
  Woolsey 1 SW              T   700 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Rappahannock County...
  Chester Gap             2.0   900 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Rockingham County...
  Massanutten 1 NNE       2.0   818 AM  2/13  Public

...Shenandoah County...
  Basye 2 NNE             4.0   823 AM  2/13  Public

...Warren County...
  Karo 1 WSW              0.6   830 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

WEST VIRGINIA

...Berkeley County...
  Martinsburg 2 E         3.0   858 AM  2/13  NWS Employee
  Falling Waters 2 NW     2.6   820 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter

...Grant County...
  Mount Storm             8.0   756 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Hampshire County...
  Capon Bridge 5 WSW      5.0   910 AM  2/13  Public
  Romney 2 E              4.5   839 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Hardy County...
  Wardensville 3 E        5.0   907 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Moorefield 1 SE         3.0   830 AM  2/13  Public
  Moorefield              2.5   844 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Jefferson County...
  Bloomery 3 SSE          3.7   913 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Rippon 2 W              1.0   935 AM  2/13  NWS Employee

...Mineral County...
  Hartmansville 1 E       5.5   758 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways
  Burlington  E           1.8   730 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  New Creek               1.5   758 AM  2/13  Dept of Highways

...Morgan County...
  Berkeley Spgs           4.5   820 AM  2/13  Public
  Berryville              4.0   850 AM  2/13  Public

...Pendleton County...
  Cherry Grove 6 WSW      5.0   753 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Upper Track 1 N         2.3   829 AM  2/13  Public
  Deer Run 2 WSW          2.0   751 AM  2/13  Trained Spotter
  Franklin                1.8   829 AM  2/13  Emergency Mngr

I call BS on the Ballanger Creek total. No way they got close to Thurmont or Emmitsburg. I’m north of them and didn’t even have that much. Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure. 

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I lived here for 10 years previously,  so I knew what to expect.  The differences from N to S in this county are stark.

What was your liquid total?

Seems like the increasing norm is you gotta wake up early enough to see wet flakes or a quick coating before it's gone.  Watching all the observations from afar and seeing my Aldie station touch 32 for a couple of hours and the grass get white is all winter can muster?  The Feb pattern is the now like March or Early April from not long ago.  Expect green grass and budding trees now when I get there the end of the month.  

And congrats to the north and western edge folks who get a day or so of winter. 

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4 hours ago, HighStakes said:

 @psuhoffmanNice!

Another marginal storm where there's a big difference between you and me. Happening very frequently now. I ended up with 4.5 maybe a bit more but I measured after some compaction. I'm inclined to think just 10-15 years ago the difference between our totals would have been less than inch.

Yea we both know what’s going on. The difference between here and 95 is getting more extreme also. Not in the total dreg years like 2020 and 2023 so much but marginal storms where we bet 6+ and the cities bet absolutely nothing seem to be increasing. 2021 was ridiculous in that regard. 
 

There was a lot of compaction today.  My depth was never over 5.2 but I cleared the deck where I measure at 7am.  Also temps were right around freezing and that’s even the 200 ft elevation difference between us can matter. That’s happening a lot more lately. But I’m just thankful we’re still on the snow side of the equation on these for now. I’m afraid that ship has sailed for many places already. 

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3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, shift the whole thing a couple hours earlier before sunrise and I’d have gotten a couple inches. And this was a fast moving storm that just hauled its ass out of here

This goes in my book.  DC/Baltimore should have been able to squeeze some accumulating snow out of this on Feb 13th...

f8295e74-c284-4aef-ac5e-f6a12c80f632.thumb.gif.427ec944b7de9615cad368d0a21688b5.gif

Again, this one storm taken alone means absolutely nothing.  There have always been disappointing outcomes through history.  Yes I could find a few nice snow solutions that look like this but we could find plenty of times it was too warm also.  But it's the fact these keep stacking up.  It's becoming VERY rare that these marginal setups break snow instead of rain anymore for DC and Baltimore.  We are only going to get so many perfect wave passes like this...when we start wasting 2-3 maybe even 4 of them on rain every winter...well.... that's how you end up where we are.  

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This goes in my book.  DC/Baltimore should have been able to squeeze some accumulating snow out of this on Feb 13th...

f8295e74-c284-4aef-ac5e-f6a12c80f632.thumb.gif.427ec944b7de9615cad368d0a21688b5.gif

Again, this one storm taken alone means absolutely nothing.  There have always been disappointing outcomes through history.  Yes I could find a few nice snow solutions that look like this but we could find plenty of times it was too warm also.  But it's the fact these keep stacking up.  It's becoming VERY rare that these marginal setups break snow instead of rain anymore for DC and Baltimore.  We are only going to get so many perfect wave passes like this...when we start wasting 2-3 maybe even 4 of them on rain every winter...well.... that's how you end up where we are.  

 

I was surprised we got ANY snowfall from this. Zero cold air, no NAO, we were coming off a warm pattern, and the "pattern change" was set to start with the passage of this storm. We don't usually get any snow at the beginning of a pattern change, usuaally in the middle or end of it. 

We wouldn't be having this conversation if this thing tracked north across PA and hit New England with a foot+ of snow. Instead we'd be saying, "ok this is the start of a pattern change, now let's start tracking."

We (far N&W favored areas with elevation) got lucky with this one. 

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3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure. 

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

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I’m in the Trout Run Valley just west of Woodstock Virginia. The valley floor, which is it about 1600 feet got 1”. Up on the mountain where I am at 2400 feet, we got 6”. Most of it fell in a three hour window between five and eight that 800 feet of elevation was the difference between 36° and 30°

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4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I call BS on the Ballanger Creek total. No way they got close to Thurmont or Emmitsburg. I’m north of them and didn’t even have that much. Dept of Highways has had some weird totals over this winter. Idk how they measure. 

 

50 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

The suffering of mid-Atlantic snow weenies was already dire. How are we supposed to endure State Highway Snow Measurement. It's just cruel.

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

With the back-to-back January storms, the errors seemed like they were just sticking a ruler in a random spot and measuring snow depth. Now I'm even more stumped. The only thing we both know is that all the State Highway measurements are probably wrong again somehow. LOL

There was just no way Ballanger Creek, who flipped over 30-45 min after me had close to 3” of snow, equal to places to my north. It’s maddening. I measured 2.25” to 2.4” basically everywhere. Not like the snow drifted. Maybe I missed SOME compaction with the snow at such low SLR, but Yeesh. 

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5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

I was surprised we got ANY snowfall from this. Zero cold air, no NAO, we were coming off a warm pattern, and the "pattern change" was set to start with the passage of this storm. We don't usually get any snow at the beginning of a pattern change, usuaally in the middle or end of it. 

We wouldn't be having this conversation if this thing tracked north across PA and hit New England with a foot+ of snow. Instead we'd be saying, "ok this is the start of a pattern change, now let's start tracking."

We (far N&W favored areas with elevation) got lucky with this one. 

We don’t always get to decide when we get lucky and  wave tracks perfectly across VA. Yea ideally we want it to happen in a cold pattern and typically that’s when we have a better chance since to get a wave under us usually takes a colder regime. But since we rarely are cold anymore more of these opportunities are happening when it’s warm even in dead winter.  But we used to be able to eke out snow even in a warm regime if we got a perfect amplified enough wave pass. Feb 1997, my senior year in HS, sticks out. That pattern was garbage. Actually a lot of simularity to now with a ridge in southern Canada and pacific puke zonal airmass.  But we got a very similar setup with a perfect stj wave and we got a 4-8” super wet slop snowstorm in northern VA. I lived in Herndon VA then, right next to frying pan park. 
 

There were lots of other examples in the case studies. Storms where I went “how the F was that snow”. Nothing about the pattern was any good except the wave pass. That doesn’t seem to work anymore. Lately when we get a perfect track started during a crap pattern it’s just too warm. The track is irrelevant unless there is a cold regime in place. And that even more a problem since for the last 8 years warm patterns have outnumbered cold ones significantly. 

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