clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol. Go ahead and put faith in the NAM, HRRR, and RAP again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: At 12z, 850/925 are both -1 in DC but surface is 36 on the 12k. About 0.25-0.3” falls after 12z in DC. Compared to where we were, NAM is a win for MBY. I like this run personally. I’m more than fine with this run. Just living dangerously on the southern edge 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: whatever. There probably isn't much after hr15 That’s a taker at least for the city and inner burbs where most of us live 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: They ran the 0z 1.33k over us You can see the potential problem on the periphery. It really looks like 60-90 min of snow for DC that might accumulate an inch Realistically we’re probably looking at a mulch topper but I’m enjoying this last minute shift (3rd south shift of the year). Also don’t mind looking out of the office tomorrow morning seeing snow TV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: snow depth again? smh. Making a meh run look worse than it needs to. 3k is slower to transition to snow than the RAP/HRRR/12k. It's a rates problem. Who knows which of the hi-res models will nail the banding. We'll find out in 12 hours also, fwiw, 3k was probably an improvement from 18z. But both meh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 IAD/E Loudoun flips at around 12z per the 3k NAM. Here’s the 13z sounding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The NAM drops Winchester from 4.5 - 1.3. The HRRR dry slot I pointed out a little while ago is all over the NAM. Qp drops 50% 20 mi south of D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I mean if yall think its fine, I'll defer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was in a warning for 5-8” last storm and got 3”. Maybe I’ll over perform this time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: snow depth again? smh. Making a meh run look worse than it needs to. 3k is slower to transition to snow than the RAP/HRRR/12k. It's a rates problem. Who knows which of the hi-res models will nail the banding. We'll find out in 12 hours With some of the soundings we’ve seen and the strength of the low, I’m hard pressed to think we don’t have some great rates given that + the fronto and h5 pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: snow depth again? smh. Making a meh run look worse than it needs to. 3k is slower to transition to snow than the RAP/HRRR/12k. It's a rates problem. Who knows which of the hi-res models will nail the banding. We'll find out in 12 hours also, fwiw, 3k was probably an improvement from 18z. But both meh. Snow depth with those temps is probably about as accurate as you are gonna get. If you prefer the Kuchera it isnt a whole lot better. The airmass is marginal to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z 3K NAM was just ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, clskinsfan said: Snow depth with those temps is probably about as accurate as you are gonna get. If you prefer the Kuchera it isnt a whole lot better. The airmass is marginal to say the least. The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Lol can you tell which areas got boned with the latest runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 If I get an inch+ accumulation, I’ll take it as a win. Anything more than that is house money 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I mean if yall think its fine, I'll defer I just want measurable. My records are dotted with 0.5", 0.75", 1". Some are storms like this. a T or 0.25" would be a bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM was just ok. actually an improvement for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. It's 43/43 here right now brother. I am as big of a weenie as there is here when an event warrants it. Maybe I will bust. But I am not feeling this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42/41 in Havre de Grace. Lol I got a bad feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The temps are gonna plummet with rates or not at all. We won't get one without the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. Yes definitely less precip. Compare the latest run with the 18z. Big drop off with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, Chris78 said: Yes definitely less precip. Compare the latest run with the 18z. Big drop off with qpf Funny as the king euro got wetter at 18z. I’m sure the rgem will look like the uk tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. It is a trend. If you see qp amounts drop run after run on the HRRR that is not good. A 1 run fluke is no big deal but run after run is a big deal most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 HRRR is a beatdown between 7:30-10am. It'll dump snow, we'll get the rates, and we'll "boom" or it won't and we'll see snow TV. All in all a good day, hopefully? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yeah, 00z and 01z has trended a little weaker at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Probably a pipe dream, but what a beaut of a sim radar on the 01z HRRR. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Dry slot on 01z HRRR messes up the transition period, doubt something like that is going to get modeled just as it really ends up but something to watch. If the best opportunity for column cooling rates gets wasted by a dry slot, many will end up with little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It's 43/43 here right now brother. I am as big of a weenie as there is here when an event warrants it. Maybe I will bust. But I am not feeling this one. Does that include your pummeled and beatdown posts from earlier lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2" bar IMBY. As long as that comes in a two hour pasting I'll consider this a major victory. The local ridges will be picturesque tomorrow as the storm is departing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, MN Transplant said: Probably a pipe dream, but what a beaut of a sim radar on the 01z HRRR. that'll snarl a commute or two 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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