DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2024 Author Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: snow depth again? smh. Making a meh run look worse than it needs to. 3k is slower to transition to snow than the RAP/HRRR/12k. It's a rates problem. Who knows which of the hi-res models will nail the banding. We'll find out in 12 hours With some of the soundings we’ve seen and the strength of the low, I’m hard pressed to think we don’t have some great rates given that + the fronto and h5 pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: snow depth again? smh. Making a meh run look worse than it needs to. 3k is slower to transition to snow than the RAP/HRRR/12k. It's a rates problem. Who knows which of the hi-res models will nail the banding. We'll find out in 12 hours also, fwiw, 3k was probably an improvement from 18z. But both meh. Snow depth with those temps is probably about as accurate as you are gonna get. If you prefer the Kuchera it isnt a whole lot better. The airmass is marginal to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 WB 0Z 3K NAM was just ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: Snow depth with those temps is probably about as accurate as you are gonna get. If you prefer the Kuchera it isnt a whole lot better. The airmass is marginal to say the least. The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Lol can you tell which areas got boned with the latest runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 If I get an inch+ accumulation, I’ll take it as a win. Anything more than that is house money 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM was just ok. actually an improvement for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. It's 43/43 here right now brother. I am as big of a weenie as there is here when an event warrants it. Maybe I will bust. But I am not feeling this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 42/41 in Havre de Grace. Lol I got a bad feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 The temps are gonna plummet with rates or not at all. We won't get one without the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. Yes definitely less precip. Compare the latest run with the 18z. Big drop off with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2024 Author Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, Chris78 said: Yes definitely less precip. Compare the latest run with the 18z. Big drop off with qpf Funny as the king euro got wetter at 18z. I’m sure the rgem will look like the uk tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens. It is a trend. If you see qp amounts drop run after run on the HRRR that is not good. A 1 run fluke is no big deal but run after run is a big deal most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 HRRR is a beatdown between 7:30-10am. It'll dump snow, we'll get the rates, and we'll "boom" or it won't and we'll see snow TV. All in all a good day, hopefully? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Yeah, 00z and 01z has trended a little weaker at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Probably a pipe dream, but what a beaut of a sim radar on the 01z HRRR. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Dry slot on 01z HRRR messes up the transition period, doubt something like that is going to get modeled just as it really ends up but something to watch. If the best opportunity for column cooling rates gets wasted by a dry slot, many will end up with little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It's 43/43 here right now brother. I am as big of a weenie as there is here when an event warrants it. Maybe I will bust. But I am not feeling this one. Does that include your pummeled and beatdown posts from earlier lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2" bar IMBY. As long as that comes in a two hour pasting I'll consider this a major victory. The local ridges will be picturesque tomorrow as the storm is departing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Just now, MN Transplant said: Probably a pipe dream, but what a beaut of a sim radar on the 01z HRRR. that'll snarl a commute or two 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 The hrrr has a thing for Dulles 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Hrrr w 6+ in waldorf? Im convinced its drunk and im going with the nam. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yo what is it smoking for that blob in S. MD? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: It can snow above 32. I remember a storm in late January 2000 when I watched a steady (surprise) snow storm that was supposed to be rain. My husband was taking friends to the airport in Baltimore and it was bad. It was close to 40 degrees the whole time. Dark is a fantastic above freezing snow helper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 7 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Dry slot on 01z HRRR messes up the transition period, doubt something like that is going to get modeled just as it really ends up but something to watch. If the best opportunity for column cooling rates gets wasted by a dry slot, many will end up with little to nothing. The Valley dry slot filled in from 00 - 01 and shifted east to Charlottesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 I just went back and scanned the Jan 19 storm for old HRRR runs and it nailed it about 20hrs out. Just saying. Moco jackpot and all that said it was awful on the first storm. So behind 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 Viewer discretion advised in the New England sub. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Viewer discretion advised in the New England sub. Best zing of the night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 13, 2024 Share Posted February 13, 2024 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Viewer discretion advised in the New England sub. I've been reading that thread off and on all day. Very entertaining 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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