NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said: I live in Parkton and the snowblower is in the shed. Do I drag that sucker out tonight or what? Yes because that guarantees a south trend all the way down to Central VA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Toss it Yup... In all seriousness, this one is cooked for us, but folks up north should be excited. I would be. We'd need a shift of about 50-75 miles to be in the game. Yeah, models are shifting south, but not by. increments we need. NW crew firmly without the Goldilocks zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just keep your fingers crossed that the trend is our friend here. Some American mesos jumped on it big time - could equally be an overcommit that gives way to the more modest adjustment south other models have conceded so far, or… the concessions will continue and we get whacked for commutageddon once again. I mean, we ALL know around here that the last minute south trend is a fixture of our storms, since about… a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Brutal cutoff. Beltway block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I really dont understand the extreme negative approach to this by many altho most who are were no where to be found yesterday... This has huge potential to be a smoker North of Baltimore kutchera is 4+ on majority of the models with 10:1 being higher. PWAT is up around .7 a hour if its 10:1 its going to be a bust high of epic proportions. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, stormtracker said: Beltway block. Corn dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup... In all seriousness, this one is cooked for us, but folks up north should be excited. I would be. We'd need a shift of about 50-75 miles to be in the game. Yeah, models are shifting south, but not by. increments we need. NW crew firmly without the Goldilocks zone. Yeah at this point I'd be happy with any flakes based on where we were 36 hours ago. Trust me, I'm not generally optimistic about scenarios like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, EHoffman said: Yeah at this point I'd be happy with any flakes based on where we were 36 hours ago. Trust me, I'm not generally optimistic about scenarios like this one Yup, same. I've come to terms that this one ain't ours. Just be glad we're not in Boston or NW Mass. oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup, same. I've come to terms that this one ain't ours. Just be glad we're not in Boston or NW Mass. oof The best part of this storm is the potential epic Boston screwjob. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I really do think there is going to be an elevation marker that will make or break snow totals in this one. My gut is around 500ft +/- 50ft. It’s going to be that tight. I do like the northern crew on a line from the Catoctins across north-central Carroll and Baltimore Counties, then the northern tier of Harford and Cecil towards the PA line. Areas that have the best chance to do well are; Thurmont, Sabiasville, Taneytown, Emmitsburg, Manchester, Hampstead, Parkton, Jarrettsville, Norrisville, areas north of Rt 1 in Cecil, the entire southern tier of PA along the M/D. Additional areas that could cash decently include WV Panhandle, Mount Airy, Damascus, and terrain in Western HoCo. Any of these areas will have a shot at 2+” of snow imo with the best opportunity for high end advisory. Outside that is probably a 1-3” deal at best with the cutoff at 250ft elevation and south of I-66. This is my initial forecast just gleaning over everything and taking climo and BL temps into consideration. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 FWIW, the last few runs of the HRRR want to maximize lift in the DGZ for the NW suburbs for several hours with temps near freezing. If this comes to fruition then we certainly could see some problems with power lines and the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It's raining Was the modeled? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR is slowing it up a touch but building a better precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7". Under did the two snow events and really didn’t get things right until 24-36 in advance. This event was a big fat Zero 24 hours ago and this thread had zero responses for like 4-6 hours at one point im watching radar, wind direction shifts and satellite plus WVapor now. Models don’t matter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Under did the two snow events and really didn’t get things right until 24-36 in advance. This event was a big fat Zero 24 hours ago and this thread had zero responses for like 4-6 hours at one point im watching radar, wind direction shifts and satellite plus WVapor now. Models don’t matter I’ll ask what I always ask… what’s your forecast given what you are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really do think there is going to be an elevation marker that will make or break snow totals in this one. My gut is around 500ft +/- 50ft. It’s going to be that tight. I do like the northern crew on a line from the Catoctins across north-central Carroll and Baltimore Counties, then the northern tier of Harford and Cecil towards the PA line. Areas that have the best chance to do well are; Thurmont, Sabiasville, Taneytown, Emmitsburg, Manchester, Hampstead, Parkton, Jarrettsville, Norrisville, areas north of Rt 1 in Cecil, the entire southern tier of PA along the M/D. Additional areas that could cash decently include WV Panhandle, Mount Airy, Damascus, and terrain in Western HoCo. Any of these areas will have a shot at 2+” of snow imo with the best opportunity for high end advisory. Outside that is probably a 1-3” deal at best with the cutoff at 250ft elevation and south of I-66. This is my initial forecast just gleaning over everything and taking climo and BL temps into consideration. is this similar to what you are thinking? https://x.com/matthewcappucci/status/1757165780666290588?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: It's raining And it’s in the 40s! Bust incoming? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Bring it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: It's raining Snow can’t accumulate on wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Lol legit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll ask what I always ask… what’s your forecast given what you are seeing? Thank you for asking. Frederick and London county , becomes snow between 4-6 am with 1-1.5”ph rates for 2/3 hours and 5-7” accumulation Montgomery and Howard flips 5-7am with 1-2 hours of 1-1.5” rates and 3-6” accumulation DC Fairfax and PG flips 7-8am and snows heavy at times ending between 12n-1pm and receive 2-4” Anne Arundel and southern Md stay mixed and receive 0-2”’ I predict an alarm clock setting of 5am 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR is gonna work for anyone DC-north again. I’d give up my Super Bowl gambling winnings for another 50 miles south though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Under did the two snow events and really didn’t get things right until 24-36 in advance. This event was a big fat Zero 24 hours ago and this thread had zero responses for like 4-6 hours at one point im watching radar, wind direction shifts and satellite plus WVapor now. Models don’t matter You’re watching water vapor? Wow, that’s cool, bro. They told me it was invisible in science class. Dafuq do ‘they’ know anyways? All kidding aside, nowcasting is a thing and is also an art. What’s your forecast and for where? ETA: ninja’d. See your forecasts above. Think you will bust high with ground truth, but good luck! Seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thank you for asking. Frederick and London county , becomes snow between 4-6 am with 1-1.5”ph rates for 2/3 hours and 5-7” accumulation Montgomery and Howard flips 5-7am with 1-2 hours of 1-1.5” rates and 3-6” accumulation DC Fairfax and PG flips 7-8am and snows heavy at times ending between 12n-1pm and receive 2-4” Anne Arundel and southern Md stay must and receive 0-2”’ I predict an alarm clock setting of 5am Thanks! Best of luck… hope you are right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I really do think there is going to be an elevation marker that will make or break snow totals in this one. My gut is around 500ft +/- 50ft. It’s going to be that tight. I do like the northern crew on a line from the Catoctins across north-central Carroll and Baltimore Counties, then the northern tier of Harford and Cecil towards the PA line. Areas that have the best chance to do well are; Thurmont, Sabiasville, Taneytown, Emmitsburg, Manchester, Hampstead, Parkton, Jarrettsville, Norrisville, areas north of Rt 1 in Cecil, the entire southern tier of PA along the M/D. Additional areas that could cash decently include WV Panhandle, Mount Airy, Damascus, and terrain in Western HoCo. Any of these areas will have a shot at 2+” of snow imo with the best opportunity for high end advisory. Outside that is probably a 1-3” deal at best with the cutoff at 250ft elevation and south of I-66. This is my initial forecast just gleaning over everything and taking climo and BL temps into consideration. Will send you $5 to add “Monkton” to your list… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Heading to South Mountain tomorrow morning to hike to Annopoils Rocks. Should be better up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest HRRRR 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Latest HRRRR Snow Depth change Kuchera Maybe more south shifts in store… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Latest HRRRR LOL, that is BRUTAL. 1" near Fredericksburg to close to 10" near Dulles...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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