Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, high risk said: Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts. The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7". 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Ahem 4 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: GFS south Yeah another 30 miles too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 GFS caving and i expected that based on the GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, StormyClearweather said: Ahem Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem Brutal cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, StormyClearweather said: Ahem Weenies should drive in the westbound lanes on the north side of 495. All rain for eastbound losers. 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts. But the GFS just showed more than the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, nj2va said: Brutal cutoff. I'm waiting for the wxbell map. Pivotal has been far too brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, Ravens94 said: GFS caving and i expected that based on the GEFS The GEFS seemed to hang on to the southern track far longer than the op. Seemed sus at first but turning out different now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: 18z 3k NAM IAD sounding right when it flips I haven’t seen a sounding like this since Jan 2011. I’m not even kidding. Good lord 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP. Bro those maps suck, stop posting them 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem Probably won't verify, but I'm getting a kick of a depiction of 6" from one side of the airport to nada on the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem Georgetown snow shield working overtime 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 sorry to kill the excitement but Pivotal's maps are bad. Still... reasonably good north of the Beltway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm waiting for the wxbell map. Pivotal has been far too brutal Snow TV will be nice at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: But the GFS just showed more than the HRRR I was mostly speaking in jest, but 1) 10:1 maps are not good for interpreting model snowfall in events like these 2) I'm still troubled by the NAM Nest not showing much here. Maybe it will cave at 00Z, but it has a good track record in events like these at shorter ranges. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 14 minutes ago, high risk said: Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts. The next run of the HRRR is the most important run of our lives 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 GFS is 34 vs meso is 32 and 31 For temps. To me meso models are going to do far better with this due to the instability aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Advisories for the NW crew. Definitely the right call. Elevation areas north of I-70 I would be pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Ahem These #s are way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: These #s are way too high. Of course they are. Hopefully, people here are smart enough to not take these maps literally or as a forecast. But they still lend credibility to a trend toward snowier for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I haven’t seen a sounding like this since Jan 2011. I’m not even kidding. Good lord I was thinking that a few pages ago. Quick hitter for the AM commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 I live in Parkton and the snowblower is in the shed. Do I drag that sucker out tonight or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said: I live in Parkton and the snowblower is in the shed. Do I drag that sucker out tonight or what? Yes because that guarantees a south trend all the way down to Central VA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 13 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Toss it Yup... In all seriousness, this one is cooked for us, but folks up north should be excited. I would be. We'd need a shift of about 50-75 miles to be in the game. Yeah, models are shifting south, but not by. increments we need. NW crew firmly without the Goldilocks zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just keep your fingers crossed that the trend is our friend here. Some American mesos jumped on it big time - could equally be an overcommit that gives way to the more modest adjustment south other models have conceded so far, or… the concessions will continue and we get whacked for commutageddon once again. I mean, we ALL know around here that the last minute south trend is a fixture of our storms, since about… a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Brutal cutoff. Beltway block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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