rjvanals Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Your point? it reminds me of when the HDRPS had 35" inches of snow for Baltimore with no other guidance really agreeing 2 days out in 2022? 2021?. Except with ~15 hours til go time. I think we know how it'll go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours Putting aside my weenie bun, this is a very good point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: This works! Almost back to where the GFS had me last week! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, rjvanals said: My concern w the storm is we’re counting on dynamics to get us cold enough for a marginal snow event from a system that’s been weaker than modeled over the past 24 hours I think it is the stronger, more consolidated, and souther closed low pass at 500 that has made the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z Pbp on the HRRR! Love it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: apparently maybe is the answer to my rhetorical question above? also came back this far in the thread to give a shoutout to the AI Euro. Looks pretty good right now. What is the AI Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: What is the AI Euro? I can't get the site to load right now for whatever reason - but you can learn more about it here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-t-z Graphcast is Google's AI model. The ECWMF runs it after initializing it off it's data, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 20Z HRRR is a little slower with changeover, noise or trend who knows. 5am compared to last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Is this where we want to post obs? I'll probably be one of the first to (let's hope) flip. Going to be very interesting to see how this evolves. Currently 41.4/40.1 after a high of 47.5 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 HRRR smokes us. Best run yet. @Weather Willthe changeover difference was maybe 15 minutes, tbh 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 WB 20Z HRRR, solid! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 .71 PW Gonna be a ripper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3" 10:1 E Loudoun at 14z and still snowing (20z HRRR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I can't get the site to load right now for whatever reason - but you can learn more about it here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-t-z Graphcast is Google's AI model. The ECWMF runs it after initializing it off it's data, I think AI been south all along. Not sure of its track record before this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 weenie mode... but HRRR was a cave to the RAP's depiction. Much heavier precip once we flip to snow. Just saying it how it showed... no comment on likelihood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 I’m up in Philly this week and no one here is talking about snow. NWS doesn’t have any advisories for the city or nearby burbs. If any of these models are right, there could be a lot of surprised people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Blues are getting heavier and growing SW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Fog and drizzle have kept temps down at home. Noticeable change in train ride home from DC as I traveled 50 plus miles NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Wow. Absolutely clobbered in the second phase of the storm on HRRR. Have to echo the worries w/ regards to a weaker verification though - have to hope we stay in the Goldilocks zone of weak enough to stay on the south track, but strong enough to get us those eye watering rates on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2024 Author Share Posted February 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Another note is for all the people saying the de-amping is causing a weaker low, its actually trended 988 to 986 in the same frame over the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 So radio show when @stormtracker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Lots of energy aloft tomorrow morning PW values also super high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts. 2 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 GFS south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, high risk said: Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts. Think the ratios are too low at 10:1??? 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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