AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, rjvanals said: Counting on the HRRR to verify 15 hours out Not at all, we have Queen RAP... HRRR is just bonus really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Is that 3 snowstorms in the last month or so with significant south trends under 24 hours of onset?Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Western Loudoun Special incoming Bring it on, what's good for W Loudoun is also good for me even though I'm just a stone's throw across the eastern side of 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The squirrels are going crazy out here today. They know something is coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Yup Seems to be theme of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, jayyy said: Yup We Killed the old threads for the other storms for new threads. This time we pinned and unpinned and pinned the thread again. We broke the code for snow. #ItsOnlyStupidIfItDoesntWork 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 44 minutes ago, Terpeast said: At this rate, this will be a EZF-RIC hit (half joking) I'm starting to think for me it's simply a matter of how heavy the precip is, not really worried that it goes north of me so much as the euro could be right and the system is just too weak to do much given the marginal temps. It needs to thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Yup Wondering if models are getting to the point where there is no longer a last minute north trend bias, and storms are just as likely to trend south towards game time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 High temps are cooler than forecasted. 19Z HRRR has 47-48 degrees at 3pm. Actual 43 in Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Look at how heavy that subtropical juice is coming in: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=nrnmidat-02-24-1 If only it were 5 degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Weather Will said: High temps are cooler than forecasted. 19Z HRRR has 47-48 degrees at 3pm. Actual 43 in Brunswick. 48 in Westminster I don’t think it matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Channeling @Deck Pic 48/43 excited for my snowstorm 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 54 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: These models are a mess We need many more people on board to force changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I usually mentally toss the HRRRRRRRRR in the trash but, clearly, it is 100% accurate. I will be taking no questions at this time re: my previous position on the HRRRRRRRRR. Thank you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RGEM says no unless you are in NE MD. Luckily it's the 2nd best model that starts with R 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Counting on the HRRR to verify 15 hours out While using 10:1 maps is ridiculous given the thermal profile leading in, we discounted the RAP HRRR in January too…. And we saw how that turned out. They sniffed out the southern trend then too. I definitely see this being more of a northern tier special, but I wouldn’t count out HoCo and MoCo entirely. Definitely possible there’s some 2-3” amounts in those areas away from 95If only it were 4-5 degrees colder going in… we’d be talking 6+ for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Crushjob incoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: High temps are cooler than forecasted. 19Z HRRR has 47-48 degrees at 3pm. Actual 43 in Brunswick. It's a little cold in my apartment and I just turned up the heat, I think that bodes well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, TSSN+ said: 48 in Westminster I don’t think it matters much. That is still ok. In short term need to see if actual temps are in line with forecasted temps at the surface in line with the snowiest models. Red flag if actual temps are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hrrr did nail the last storm showing DC areas getting the most snow and not northnern Md like the rest of the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Temps - I'm at 47.5/47 atm. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Not at all, we have Queen RAP... HRRR is just bonus really Nam on board as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Temps - I'm at 47.5/47 atm. Long way to go. 46/45 here inside the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Temps - I'm at 47.5/47 atm. Long way to go. wasnt it 60 12 hours before it turned from rain to snow in early December lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Imagine being on the wrong side of this line. What a curse SoMD checking in... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm starting to think for me it's simply a matter of how heavy the precip is, not really worried that it goes north of me so much as the euro could be right and the system is just too weak to do much given the marginal temps. It needs to thump. This seems like the perfect setup for you to get the jackpot in our region. Hope you get pasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The squirrels are going crazy out here today. They know something is coming. That, combined with the MGI (Migrating Geese Index), tells me that something significant is afoot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: This seems like the perfect setup for you to get the jackpot in our region. Hope you get pasted. I think @mappy is in a real good spot for this a bit farther east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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