Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Still too warm for immediate metro but N/W with elevation this could be something.  But red flag is the Euro is about 5 degrees warmer than the RAP at 12z.  Euro has DC at 39 and RAP at 34.

Isn't that just rates? Euro just seems drier overall. I think the question is whether you buy the mesos with the intense dump or is that being overplayed and the Euro is correct with less intense rates? Or maybe something in the middle, which seems like the GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

only when they dont show what we want

Yeah, if the models were flipped and they were trash and Euro was good, we would be hugging the hell out of the Euro. It's been a rough winter and looks kinda bleak now the rest of the way. The mesos for this one are the only thing we have. I am fully prepared to be heartbroken.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Isn't that just rates? Euro just seems drier overall. I think the question is whether you buy the mesos with the intense dump or is that being overplayed and the Euro is correct with less intense rates? Or maybe something in the middle, which seems like the GFS.

Yeah, maybe, but whenever in reent memory we were waiting on a 10+ degree temp drop in order to get snow without any arctic air nearby, the warmer models are usually right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Doesn’t matter at that point.  White rain.

I said this a couple weeks ago I think, but in my experience you can accumulate with temps 33-34 certainly. 35 is possible but really needs to be thumping. 36 and higher is just white rain. Of course rates and temps are linked and higher rates will cool the surface down some. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I said this a couple weeks ago I think, but in my experience you can accumulate with temps 33-34 certainly. 35 is possible but really needs to be thumping. 36 and higher is just white rain. Of course rates and temps are linked and higher rates will cool the surface down some. 

Yup, matches my experience.  Now, the surface could be wrong on the HRRR obviously, but I hate seeing the DPs so high.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I said this a couple weeks ago I think, but in my experience you can accumulate with temps 33-34 certainly. 35 is possible but really needs to be thumping. 36 and higher is just white rain. Of course rates and temps are linked and higher rates will cool the surface down some. 

This is where models won't recognize local climo. In short, it'll likely snow in areas that historically have in marginal situations, and won't in the others. This is a N/W special at best IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...