LeesburgWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said: Right after weenieing my post? Lmao it was a good weenie reaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks good. Reasonable. I love how the GFS has 10"+ across the river from me, with me getting almost nothing. This thing is gonna come down to rates. Yeah I think this is about if/where that narrow frontogen band develops tomorrow morning. Just a little more south trend and extra tuck can get it over me… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah I think this is about if/where that narrow frontogen band develops tomorrow morning. Just a little more south trend and extra tuck can get it over me… So, so close to the goods... feels like were still in the game but man I wish we had a little more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I think this is about if/where that narrow frontogen band develops tomorrow morning. Just a little more south trend and extra tuck can get it over me… 6z EPS practically promised us a 10:1 inch. I just want to see snow tomorrow. We're sooo close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: So, so close to the goods... feels like were still in the game but man I wish we had a little more time. Think we’re in the game to measure something at least… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Definitely one of the worst model performances I’ve seen in a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Seems so close to a big thump for Baltimore metro area. DC has a bit more work to do but not too far out of it either. Feels like we need two more significant bumps south. Think we might just run out of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, TSSN+ said: Definitely one of the worst model performances I’ve seen in a while. Well, different evolution at this point but the GFS did actually show a hit 7 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Definitely one of the worst model performances I’ve seen in a while. They have been awful this year!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Stacked cut off low's are always hard to time ejection, but agreed. This is particularly bad. Compounded by the fact it allows time for the "cold" air to filter in from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems so close to a big thump for Baltimore metro area. DC has a bit more work to do but not too far out of it either. Feels like we need two more significant bumps south. Think we might just run out of time. I'm wondering if Baltimore might be the cutoff for a "big thump" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Stacked cut off low's are always hard to time ejection, but agreed. This is particularly bad. Compounded by the fact it allows time for the "cold" air to filter in from Canada. Good thing we got the Beltsville site in last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Additionally, I still don't trust relying on a TROWAL to deliver us the goods without an incipient CAD regime in place in front of an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Rap came in super far south, just another addition to the trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Very curious what the EURO does. 6z was on an island... pretty mediocre snowstorm compared to all other guidance but definitely south. What a headache for NYC forecasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It was eluded to earlier in the thread, but the impetus for the sudden trend here is the HP is stronger than previously modeled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, T. August said: Well, different evolution at this point but the GFS did actually show a hit 7 days ago. Yes. Our area was in the Bulleye just 3 or 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: It was eluded to earlier in the thread, but the impetus for the sudden trend here is the HP is stronger than previously modeled? I’ve seen a few things suggested: stronger lakes shortwave weaker and more positively tilted southern shortwave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: It was eluded to earlier in the thread, but the impetus for the sudden trend here is the HP is stronger than previously modeled? No, it's the timing of how the southern stream cut off low ejects, it's been getting slower / further west. Allowing the northern stream s/w over SK/MB/ND to kick it further south. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 High getting stronger again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: No, it's the timing of how the southern stream cut off low ejects, it's been getting slower / further west. Allowing the northern stream s/w over SK/MB/ND to kick it further south. Also the northern stream s/w is a bit faster than expected 48 hrs ago (this is also what's bringing in the cold air aloft), and perhaps a tad stronger. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 12z NAM has warmed. Went from 35 - 37 at 10am Tuesday up to 44 by 1 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NYC crew has got to be happy. On SV..looks like a 12+ storm for themThis has nyc area special written all over it. I’ll be at my parents until Wednesday. 12” looking very likely Rooting for us back home though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, stormy said: The 12z NAM has warmed. Went from 35 - 37 at 10am Tuesday up to 44 by 1 pm. 3k NAM is about 5 degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 CMC was better than the RGEM this run. Rare to see them that far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 28 minutes ago, T. August said: Well, different evolution at this point but the GFS did actually show a hit 7 days ago. It has gone through about 3 distinct storm variations. It’s currently returning to the form it had about 4 days ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Watch up in the northern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Simply put, everything is better. The questions is, is better enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR keeps getting incrementally better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Watch up in the northern tier If this model trend continues, advisories are gonna be flying like geese later. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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