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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
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Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath. 
How much further south can this go?

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26 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath. 

Verbatim it shows all of that accumulation occurring within a 3 hour period of time. At 34° lol. 1-2”/hr is one way for it to stick at least.

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Nice disco from Mt Holly. They are adjusting. Probably more to come.

with a broad upper-level low across Quebec and Ontario
driving a northern stream shortwave down across the Great Lakes,
a transfer to a rapidly intensifying coastal low will occur
after midnight, with the surface low quickly transferring
eastward across Virginia and off the Delaware and southern NJ
coast by early Tuesday morning. With the upper-low remaining
strong and closed off at 500 mb along with tightening mid-level
low along a strong baroclinic zone extending from the
Chesapeake east-northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast, the
low will continue to rapidly intensify, dropping below 980 mb as
it pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast to south of Nantucket by
Tuesday afternoon. The mid and upper-level low will only further
intensify, as northern stream vorticity partially tries to
`phase` into the main upper-level low.

This is a very dynamic meteorological set-up, and those dynamics
will result in particularly heavy precipitation in the cold
sector of this fast-moving storm, resulting in heavy snow. The
keys for our region continues to be how quickly the coastal low
takes over and intensifies, and subsequently how quickly cold
air is drawn southward late tonight through Tuesday morning,
resulting in a changeover to snow from the Poconos down to the
I-95 corridor.

The situation for our area has escalated quickly with the past
round or two of model runs overnight, not only with respect to
the high-resolution models but the larger scale global models as
well. Not only has the projected storm track shifted a little
farther south, but with a stronger mid and upper-level low and a
tighter mid and low-level temperature gradient, stronger dynamic
forcing along with stronger cold air advection into the system
looks to now result in a quicker changeover to snow, and heavier
precipitation hanging back in the cold sector of the storm.
Model QPF rose for many areas near and northeast of I-95, with
some guidance even suggesting close to 1.5 inches of liquid from
the I-78 corridor northwestward. While snow ratios will be
initially poor, situation will change very quickly as the
transfer to the coastal low occurs and the dynamic mid and
upper-low passes to the south of much of our area.

As a result, snow totals have been raised across the entire
area northwest of I-95 by a good 2 to 4 inches; even more of a
jump around the I-78 corridor. 8-12 inches, perhaps even locally
more, are possible across the higher terrain around the Pocono
Plateau to Sussex County NJ and even northwest Morris County,
and some adjacent areas. See the latest Winter Storm Warnings
that were upgraded from the earlier Watch, and a strip of
Advisories to the south of that, northwest of I-95. Rain will
linger a bit longer, but change over to snow quickly from 3 AM
to 8 AM, from I-78 to I-95 respectively. This is of great
concern for the Tuesday morning commute in particular, with 1
to 2 inch per hour rates possible along the I-80 corridor, and
potentially down to I-78 as well. Farther south and east, low-
level temperatures will be more in the mid-30s with stronger
forcing not co- located with the dendritic growth region.
Combined with milder ground and pavement temperatures, snow
still may struggle to accumulate along the I-95 corridor.
However, given the rather dynamic situation with strong
frontogenetic forcing, there may be a brief window for heavy
snow even close to I-95 around the later part of the morning
commute that will bear watching. Again though, that looks like
it will struggle to amount to more than a slushy inch or two.
That part of the forecast may need to be adjusted by later
shifts, though.
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