WEATHER53 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 2:58 PM, WEATHER53 said: Mechanics with today’s heavier precipitation was south. I think that continues thru Tuesday Coming south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 FWIW Euro does spit out accumulating snow even over DC this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath. How much further south can this go?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 hmmm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 26 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath. Verbatim it shows all of that accumulation occurring within a 3 hour period of time. At 34° lol. 1-2”/hr is one way for it to stick at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This could still end up being something for people NW with a little elevation. +SN at 33-34 will stick. The period from say 6 am to 11 am could yield something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WB 6Z 12K NAM, can it score the coup????? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WB 6Z GFS ticks further south....(comparing to 0Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/9/2024 at 11:17 AM, psuhoffman said: We really did crack the code. But we have to use this judiciously. With great power comes great responsibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WSW’s extended eastward to include all of Allegany Co., MD and eastern Mineral Co. WV for mainly the higher ridges there. WWA for Washington Co., MD but not my yard yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No stopping the south push 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Who repinned the topic? There goes any hopes of a further south push 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z euro folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No one saw the 6z Euro? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 hours ago, Ji said: How much further south can this go? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Short Pump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 6z euro is almost too deamped like the nothing burner gem and uk runs 2-3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nice disco from Mt Holly. They are adjusting. Probably more to come. with a broad upper-level low across Quebec and Ontario driving a northern stream shortwave down across the Great Lakes, a transfer to a rapidly intensifying coastal low will occur after midnight, with the surface low quickly transferring eastward across Virginia and off the Delaware and southern NJ coast by early Tuesday morning. With the upper-low remaining strong and closed off at 500 mb along with tightening mid-level low along a strong baroclinic zone extending from the Chesapeake east-northeastward off the mid-Atlantic coast, the low will continue to rapidly intensify, dropping below 980 mb as it pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast to south of Nantucket by Tuesday afternoon. The mid and upper-level low will only further intensify, as northern stream vorticity partially tries to `phase` into the main upper-level low. This is a very dynamic meteorological set-up, and those dynamics will result in particularly heavy precipitation in the cold sector of this fast-moving storm, resulting in heavy snow. The keys for our region continues to be how quickly the coastal low takes over and intensifies, and subsequently how quickly cold air is drawn southward late tonight through Tuesday morning, resulting in a changeover to snow from the Poconos down to the I-95 corridor. The situation for our area has escalated quickly with the past round or two of model runs overnight, not only with respect to the high-resolution models but the larger scale global models as well. Not only has the projected storm track shifted a little farther south, but with a stronger mid and upper-level low and a tighter mid and low-level temperature gradient, stronger dynamic forcing along with stronger cold air advection into the system looks to now result in a quicker changeover to snow, and heavier precipitation hanging back in the cold sector of the storm. Model QPF rose for many areas near and northeast of I-95, with some guidance even suggesting close to 1.5 inches of liquid from the I-78 corridor northwestward. While snow ratios will be initially poor, situation will change very quickly as the transfer to the coastal low occurs and the dynamic mid and upper-low passes to the south of much of our area. As a result, snow totals have been raised across the entire area northwest of I-95 by a good 2 to 4 inches; even more of a jump around the I-78 corridor. 8-12 inches, perhaps even locally more, are possible across the higher terrain around the Pocono Plateau to Sussex County NJ and even northwest Morris County, and some adjacent areas. See the latest Winter Storm Warnings that were upgraded from the earlier Watch, and a strip of Advisories to the south of that, northwest of I-95. Rain will linger a bit longer, but change over to snow quickly from 3 AM to 8 AM, from I-78 to I-95 respectively. This is of great concern for the Tuesday morning commute in particular, with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates possible along the I-80 corridor, and potentially down to I-78 as well. Farther south and east, low- level temperatures will be more in the mid-30s with stronger forcing not co- located with the dendritic growth region. Combined with milder ground and pavement temperatures, snow still may struggle to accumulate along the I-95 corridor. However, given the rather dynamic situation with strong frontogenetic forcing, there may be a brief window for heavy snow even close to I-95 around the later part of the morning commute that will bear watching. Again though, that looks like it will struggle to amount to more than a slushy inch or two. That part of the forecast may need to be adjusted by later shifts, though. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Weenies north of us jumping off buildings bc of the euro. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 That's worse than 00zSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just now, Ji said: That's worse than 00z Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk That’s bad for most people on the east coast minus Philly to nyc and 6-8 is the max really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: That’s bad for most people on the east coast minus Philly to nyc and 6-8 is the max really Pretty close to NE MD PUMMELED! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 That's worse than 00zSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkEuro showed significant ice, i think?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro showed significant ice, i think?.With temps at 35? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 With temps at 35?You are correct. Looked at it wrong. Showing rain/snow mix, not ice. So yes, a nothing burger. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Weenies going from 14 inches to 1 has been best part of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ji said: Weenies going from 14 inches to 1 has been best part of the storm New England's loss is New York's gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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