Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Really close for northern MD on the 18z NAM. Close, but a miss. 850mb temps are near 0 at hr63 heavy precip close Actual SL low is off of Ocean City MD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z NAM is so damn close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 FWIW, this is what CTP has as of this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z Hrr fwiw was colder than the NAM with the 0 line at 48hrs https://ibb.co/s1FZmsS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We still chasing this unicorn?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 38 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We still chasing this unicorn?? Up where I live in Harford County, I might get 45 minutes of heavy snow.. may add up to a dusting or 1/2". For the 5-10% chance, A small shift south could be a big deal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 28 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We still chasing this unicorn?? Some of us still in the game for some snow TV, maybe a slushy inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RAP.. whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NWS more concerned with flooding around the metro areas... 30-50% chance of an inch up by the PA line! Text Products for AFD Issued by LWX (weather.gov) Synoptically, we continue to monitor a strong 500 mb upper level low pressure system that will eject out of the southern Plains early Monday and into the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Meanwhile, at the surface will watch the progression of a cold front dropping south from Canada and New England into the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon into Monday night.The progression of this front south combined with the placement of high pressure over central and eastern Canada will dictate how much cold air makes it into the region especially as the upper level low slides up the Mid-Atlantic coast late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Current deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show subtle differences in regards to the timing and intensity of the upper level low as well as the progression of the front. The 12z NAM remains the coldest solution while the GFS, GEM, GEFS, ICON, and ECMWF have trended warmer over a large chunk of the forecast region. This is particularly true in regards to the H85 0 degree isotherm ballparked up around the PA Turnpike and I-80 region amongst most of the guidance. Even with that said, several model solutions still have the 0 degree C isotherm line in the vicinity of the PA/MD border during the early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon timeframe as the upper level low/trough axis strengthens and swings overhead. This will allow for a period of dynamical cooling for precipitation to change from rain to snow. Once again this will be determined by the surface low pressure system track and transfer of upper level energy from the central Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Plenty of uncertainty remains here and still has yet to be ironed out amongst the models. As of now, the highest confidence for impactful winter weather remains in climo areas along and west of the Allegheny Front Monday night into Tuesday. Areas further east of the mountains (especially the Catoctin Mountains and areas along the immediate PA/MD border) may see a brief period of rain changing to snow due to dynamical cooling from the trough axis swinging overhead Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Ensemble/NBM probabilities continue to show probabilities of 2 to 4 inches of snow hovering between 30-50 percent for areas along and west of the Allegheny Front with 30-50 percent probabilities of 1 inch of snow along the PA/MD border including the Catoctin Mountains. Higher snow amounts greater than 4 inches can be found across central PA and northern NJ where deterministic/ensemble guidance continues to illustrate the best frontogenetic forcing setting up. Any changes in the track of the system (further south), strength, and timing of the H85 cold front could play big dividends in where the best forcing/highest impact from wintry weather sets up. For now, the current forecast favors snow over the mountains of the Allegheny Front/Catoctins and rain elsewhere across the region. More on snow totals at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Outside of the wintry threat the bigger concern may be flooding given saturated soils, elevated streamflows, and heavy rainfall within a short period of time (6-9 hour window). Rainfall amounts will remain between a 0.5 to 1.50 inches with this system with locally heavier amounts along and east of I-95. High temperatures for most Monday will push into the mid to upper 40s with increasing easterly flow. Lows Monday night will fall into the 20s over the mountains with low to mid 30s across the rest of region. Low pressure quickly intensifies and pulls away from the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will lead to falling temperatures as gusty northwest flow ushers in cold Canadian air. Highs will will push into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s outside of the mountains. Conditions will dry out east of the mountains with low level moisture allowing upslope snow showers to continue along and west of the Allegheny Front. These snow showers will diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday as brief Canadian high pressure settles in. Another shortwave and clipper-type low pressure system will quickly follow within northwest flow Thursday into Friday. This system will produce another shot of accumulating snow over the mountains with the potential for a rain and snow mix further east. It will also deliver another shot of cold Canadian air to the region. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below average by the middle and latter half of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 At least we're putting a dent in the drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This alone will tell you there’s still some degree of uncertainty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Was out drinking all day and am destroyed. Is it gonna snow or not? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 WB 18Z EURO if it makes you feel better, Philly and NY city not getting much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 You guys might as well close this thread because at this rate it's gonna be rain all the way up to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 You guys might as well close this thread because at this rate it's gonna be rain all the way up to Cleveland. You rang?Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 33 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Was out drinking all day and am destroyed. Is it gonna snow or not? Is it even going to rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Is it even going to rain here? Been a pretty wet winter brother. Just turned over my garden beds today. Soil was soaked pretty damn deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, clskinsfan said: Been a pretty wet winter brother. Just turned over my garden beds today. Soil was soaked pretty damn deep. I've got .02" for the month. It was 4.5" for Jan. Good, but that hardly put a dent in the -12" for 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I told you that we shouldn't have made a second thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, stormtracker said: I told you that we shouldn't have made a second thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I told you that we shouldn't have made a second thread. We’d still be hall of famers in the MLB, and we have several more chances before we’d hit the Mendoza line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nobody's into it, but we get some wrap around flurries Tuesday on the 0z NAM. Low pressure is really strong, 980s mb right when it exits the coast off of Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nobody's into it, but we get some wrap around flurries Tuesday on the 0z NAM. Low pressure is really strong, 980s mb right when it exits the coast off of Ocean City. Not that it means much but it’s a little more than flurries for the northern areas. Maybe 1-2” in the favored spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Mechanics with today’s heavier precipitation was south. I think that continues thru Tuesday I've got my sled ready!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The Models! They say "0 inches of snow" and then they say "10 inches of snow". The Models cannot be relied upon! With their various inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 hours ago, Yeoman said: At least we're putting a dent in the drought The drought got hit with a tire iron 2 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 So can we unpin this thread about Boston's 12"-15"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So can we unpin this thread about Boston's 12"-15"? Looks amazing to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z Hrr has a brief period of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now