wxmeddler Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Funny how gfs is farthest north after being on the south Island. Primary has hung on longer on some recent runs even in the “better” outcomes. euro and nam now on southern end of guidance It's because the GFS has gotten stronger with the s/w aloft. If you look at 300mb at 02-13 00z, the area of greatest difluence was over SW VA but with the stronger s/w, it's moved 100 miles NW towards KY/S OH. That isn't much aloft, but damn does that 100 miles mean a lot for advection at the surface with the apps in the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The Canadian lol. Guidance in general having issues resolving the transfer and how quickly the coastal strengthens. Exact track is a bit iffy too. Right now probably gotta ride with the Euro-GFS combo. Given the warmth out in front and no cold HP up north, a norther track/rain-snow line makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: It's because the GFS has gotten stronger with the s/w aloft. If you look at 300mb at 02-13 00z, the area of greatest difluence was over SW VA but with the stronger s/w, it's moved 100 miles NW towards KY/S OH. That isn't much aloft, but damn does that 100 miles mean a lot for advection at the surface with the apps in the way. In the case where the location of the s/w has large implication makes sense. We wanted it south and slower but stronger was a 50/50 proposition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro gonna be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, T. August said: Euro gonna be telling Telling for SNE. Misery loves company. And I love company 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 00Z CFS looked pretty good 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 All this tells me is that the models are pretty heavily diverged as we get closer. The southern camp is gaining a few members 3 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Wtf crazy uncle Ukie 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wtf crazy uncle Ukie That southern cutoff tho. Wacky depiction. Curious what the output on Pivotal would be (run might've broke Pivotal) or if someone has a WeatherModels account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0” or 8-10” in under 84hrs lead time. Got to love it. But we all know the JI saying, take the least snowiest model. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 There was a time when the Ukie seemed to hint at what King Euro would show next. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Through 36 euro is a lil more diggy, but a hair faster. Not sure how that will translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: All this tells me is that the models are pretty heavily diverged as we get closer. The southern camp is gaining a few members Looks like more 0-10” examples. Boring By Sunday night we likely get the elements of an actual probability forecast. Now that some science is looming-I’m back as promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Bad news folks - EURO doesn't look like the UKIE. Went north and joined the screw NYC crew 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Bad news folks - EURO doesn't look like the UKIE. Went north and joined the screw NYC crew hope it ends up all rain for them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Bad news folks - EURO doesn't look like the UKIE. Went north and joined the screw NYC crew Well we can take solace that Baltimore will continue to be the 2nd snowiest city on the East coast then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Yep, that’s game folks. Ukmet and the Canadian suite should be ashamed of themselves for being this bad at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, JakkelWx said: hope it ends up all rain for them They lost 8" of snow this run. They've got some nice people there but I prefer when we all win and lose together. Sorry even worse though... Boston gained like 8". Still time for them to go down in flames too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Well we can take solace that Baltimore will continue to be the 2nd snowiest city on the East coast then I mean, I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 75 hours out... makes you want to join @WEATHER53's cult. Or let AI take over weather forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 75 hours out... makes you want to join @WEATHER53's cult. Or let AI take over weather forecasting Hey if we get rlly lucky the NAM wins and no one gets anything, while we still get mood flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Sorry we didn't win this one guys. I'll browse the runs as they come in, might chase this one up north if a run like the euro gets more support. Have free rooms at Mohegan but I think best corridor is Catskills through Springfield, Mass up through say Nashua if northern solutions end up being the winning camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 A helpful north trend on 12z eps for those rooting for it to go so far north we get dry slotted out of rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RIDE OR DIE!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, paulythegun said: A helpful north trend on 12z eps for those rooting for it to go so far north we get dry slotted out of rain 12z eps isn’t out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z eps isn’t outNah… it is. Caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nah… it is. Caved It's kind of a relief, no need to be further invested. I'm almost on the other side of the fence rooting for it to go way north lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Mechanics with today’s heavier precipitation was south. I think that continues thru Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 I think the NAM is going to have more of a clue and look more like the GFS/Euro just looking thru h24. Let's see if that's true. Little faster h5 vort and slightly north of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NAM is definitely more amped this run https://ibb.co/vhgMX70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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