MillvilleWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Someone is going to get hit pretty solidly tomorrow morning. My guess is elevation areas above 500’ will be the primary with NE MD in a good spot given the expected track of the 7H/85H lows on mesos. I feel FDK will get snow and it could be heavy for a short time, but too warm initially to be part of the major accumulations. Parrs Ridge down through MoCo could snag some accums as well, but I still like I-70 north with elevation to be the winners. This is a tricky storm for guidance due to the convective initiation and spatial resolve across the south. I’ve been peeking at this potential all week and figured we’d have a surprise in store somewhere. Didn’t think we’d be in the game, if I’m being completely honest. I thought NYC could luck into it. Maybe some of us can as well. Will be interesting to track. If only we were 2-3° colder leading in… 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Here soon the low will be going into NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest HRRR would be a shellacking out this way. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR would be a shellacking out this way. That would be some serious mashed potatoes if that verified. Huge flakes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Starting to get some Jan 27, 2011 vibes for the NW crew. You have: 1.) A dynamic, strengthening system moving through to the south. 2.) Rain to start so no pretreatment can be put down on roads. 3.) Heavy rates. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That would be some serious mashed potatoes if that verified. Huge flakes Ok MillvilleWx .. I need your no BS assessment … we have 2 globals and multiple regionals now with the NEMD crushed signal .. The RAP shows a perfect SLP pass off ORF … what’s the red tagger thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to get some Jan 27, 2011 vibes for the NW crew. You have: 1.) A dynamic, strengthening system moving through to the south. 2.) Rain to start so no pretreatment can be put down on roads. 3.) Heavy rates. I was thinking when the NAM came out this morning how the forecasted vertical velocities reminded me of that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Someone is going to get hit pretty solidly tomorrow morning. My guess is elevation areas above 500’ will be the primary with NE MD in a good spot given the expected track of the 7H/85H lows on mesos. I feel FDK will get snow and it could be heavy for a short time, but too warm initially to be part of the major accumulations. Parrs Ridge down through MoCo could snag some accums as well, but I still like I-70 north with elevation to be the winners. This is a tricky storm for guidance due to the convective initiation and spatial resolve across the south. I’ve been peeking at this potential all week and figured we’d have a surprise in store somewhere. Didn’t think we’d be in the game, if I’m being completely honest. I thought NYC could luck into it. Maybe some of us can as well. Will be interesting to track. If only we were 2-3° colder leading in… I haven’t paid much attention since I just returned yesterday from out west. I was feeling demoralized with the 12z runs, but if the trends are good and people are making Jan 2011 comparisons and elevations above 500’ are in the game, then this has my attention and I hope to see it trend a little colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Starting to get some Jan 27, 2011 vibes for the NW crew. You have: 1.) A dynamic, strengthening system moving through to the south. 2.) Rain to start so no pretreatment can be put down on roads. 3.) Heavy rates. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, WeatherQ said: Ok MillvilleWx .. I need your no BS assessment … we have 2 globals and multiple regionals now with the NEMD crushed signal .. The RAP shows a perfect SLP pass off ORF … what’s the red tagger thought? My thought is to prepare for potential snowstorm across Cecil county and points northeast. It’ll be a heavy wet snow and accumulate on elevated surfaces first. It could be tricky travel tomorrow morning and afternoon. The trend is undeniable at this point. Utilize mesos now and ensemble based products 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: My thought is to prepare for potential snowstorm across Cecil county and points northeast. It’ll be a heavy wet snow and accumulate on elevated surfaces first. It could be tricky travel tomorrow morning and afternoon. The trend is undeniable at this point. Utilize mesos now and ensemble based products Is it possible to continue to trend south?? Fairfax county hopeful here…I want Yoda to pay $200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro coming in drier so far...seems about the same vs 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Seems a hair souther...like within the "noise" level. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I was thinking when the NAM came out this morning how the forecasted vertical velocities reminded me of that storm.Jumping in the car for my two hour drive out your way. Looking forward to our local reports in the am. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RAP stands for Really Always Perfect model... right? 8 inches in Harrisonburg LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, WeatherShak said: Jumping in the car for my two hour drive out your way. Looking forward to our local reports in the am. . You should do better up on that ridge than I will. Enjoy ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If the EURO is right it's gonna be a tough night in the NYC subforum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest RAP is even better. Literally pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, clskinsfan said: Latest RAP is even better. Literally pummeled. yeah RAP says everyone needs WSW stat. and as @Ravens94 would say... still going 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sure glad the models are painting a crystal clear picture for us...*checks watch*...12 hours from start time. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RAP is fcking bonkers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7am sounding on the euro for mappyland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: If the EURO is right it's gonna be a tough night in the NYC subforum Hey we manage to reach over an inch, I'd take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I wasn't following over the weekend and now I am very confused. Is it snowing tomorrow? It seems way too warm. Do we expect any accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The differences between toheseo models with only 18hrs to go is wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You really can't ignore this trend HRRR is also going Even more south. 18z gonna probably blow us up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Is it possible to continue to trend south?? Fairfax county hopeful here…I want Yoda to pay $200 I think flakes will fly, but not really amount to much. I think the max is 1-2” if literally everything broke right. This is more for MD and points and north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I mean this is just phenomenal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now