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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread


DDweatherman
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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

No 

 

1 minute ago, jayyy said:


Sit down grumpy

No....0ne noticed the Winter Storm Watch for west and north?

Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
957 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations around 5
  inches are possible.

* WHERE...Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and
  Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change to snow
  between 5 AM and 7 AM. Snow may be heavy at times, with rates
  of up to 1 inch per hour through mid morning Tuesday.
  Visibility may be reduced to less than one half mile at times.
  The combination of wet snow and gusty winds could lead to
  downed trees and power lines, resulting in isolated power
  outages.

 

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1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

If this was just colder with some CAD to start, this would have been beautiful with the "new" track. 700mb low slides right over top of us with the 850mb low just over southern MD. *chef's kiss*

Yup. If only we were 3 to 5 degrees colder.

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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I think in this case it comes down to the upper level low track

I am really busy today and haven't had a ton of time so behind here...but from a quick glance at stuff I think its simply where the guidance is placing that crazy deform band.  Temps are marginal anywhere south of the PA line and so the crazy rates under that band are necessary for any accumulation.  Obviously guidance is going to differ a little on exactly where it places that feature.  

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SPC runs the HREF at 00z/12z. The 12z 1-hr ensemble mean snowfall rate for northern Washington, Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, and Harford counties is 1" - 1.5" in some spots. While the ground temperatures are warm, those rates will overcome the ground temporarily and probably cause a dicey AM commute tomorrow.

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