2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The NWS says the severe risk is highly dependent on lingering rain and clouds through the day. I think this has a high bust potential.

Kinda like the last two days where they went too high and busted 

[Crowbar]

3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm surprised they went with such a high risk. There could be alot of rainfall throughout the day Thursday helping to lower instability in the region, similar to last week. Thankfully, this is much less threatening than last week, however, the focus will be more on flooding rainfall threats.

The NWS says the severe risk is highly dependent on lingering rain and clouds through the day. I think this has a high bust potential.

Agree - heard a local met on the radio talking about how it may clear out enough to fire up the storms, and that's what they said last week.  Don't see that happening with the amount of rain we're supposed to get. 

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, Crowbar said:

Agree - heard a local met on the radio talking about how it may clear out enough to fire up the storms, and that's what they said last week.  Don't see that happening with the amount of rain we're supposed to get. 

Here it comes already and this is just slow moving round one. 

[Crowbar]

43 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Here it comes already and this is just slow moving round one. 

Yep - I'm in the county north of Columbus.  I don't see severe happening here, but ILN still saying that there's a chance.  If it appears that they'll get severe, then I'll go home and work from there.   Easier to work at the office, but would rather have the car in the garage and a basement if necessary

[Floydbuster]

5 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

Yep - I'm in the county north of Columbus.  I don't see severe happening here, but ILN still saying that there's a chance.  If it appears that they'll get severe, then I'll go home and work from there.   Easier to work at the office, but would rather have the car in the garage and a basement if necessary

I'm in the Akron area, so you probably have a much higher chance than me. I'm still skeptical though. I think the highest risk would probably be between Chillicothe-Zanesville-Wheeling and south. Infact, I think West Virginia may wanna keep an eye if anything.

[Floydbuster]

Here's the 00Z HRRR lightning map. Much less and way south, almost all in West Virginia. I don't see any reason why the SPC will keep such a higher risk, and especially not as far north as it was this afternoon.

[vpbob21]

The models keep edging the track of the low farther east.  I'm thinking flooding may be a bigger hazard tomorrow in Ohio than severe, maybe the counties near the WV and PA borders could get some severe action.

[Floydbuster]

8 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

The models keep edging the track of the low farther east.  I'm thinking flooding may be a bigger hazard tomorrow in Ohio than severe, maybe the counties near the WV and PA borders could get some severe action.

Agree. I think many areas especially around Coshocton over towards Pittsburgh have been really waterlogged. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Quote

A few tornadoes are possible if stronger updrafts/supercells manage to develop, in addition to an
   accompanying threat for damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail.  

From the 13Z outlook. Doesn't sound like the kind of wording that should accompany an Enhanced/10% contour.

[nwohweather]

16 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Here's the 00Z HRRR lightning map. Much less and way south, almost all in West Virginia. I don't see any reason why the SPC will keep such a higher risk, and especially not as far north as it was this afternoon.

After last week's MDT they really need to tone it down a bit, this isn't WWE. Everything is socked in with rain at the moment, I wouldn't have anything above a slight.

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

After last week's MDT they really need to tone it down a bit, this isn't WWE. Everything is socked in with rain at the moment, I wouldn't have anything above a slight.

If I'm being honest...forget about the severe threat...I think that even the rainfall forecast may be too aggressive. I'm currently under a dark yellow blob on radar and outside is literally a springtime steady mist-type rain with 5 kt variable winds. I'm wondering if not only is the severe way too overestimated, but whether or not even the rainfall and wind forecast should be lowered. 

Is the yellow blob rain on radar not hitting the ground? What the hell?

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

That enhanced was such a screw up, there's been more Tor Warnings in the marginal areas down south

[Floydbuster]

7 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That enhanced was such a screw up, there's been more Tor Warnings in the marginal areas down south

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? 

Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? 

After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?
 

[King James]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? 

Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? 

After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?
 

Got to convince the people that they should fear the weather, pay more taxes, and eventually get to mars lol. 
 

I listen to AM radio all day and seemingly every week there is another weather story curated in a way that makes a garden variety storm sound as if it’s a precursor to greater threats in the future 

The playbook is exhausting. 

[SolidIcewx]

27 minutes ago, King James said:

Got to convince the people that they should fear the weather, pay more taxes, and eventually get to mars lol. 
 

I listen to AM radio all day and seemingly every week there is another weather story curated in a way that makes a garden variety storm sound as if it’s a precursor to greater threats in the future 

The playbook is exhausting. 

It’s getting ridiculous. Seeing a lot of that BS on Reddit now also. Made a comment a couple days ago about how I’d be more worried about SLW than an individual tornado in a small localized area. Got downvoted into oblivion for being honest. People following social media a bit too much imo. Granted there are good posters out there just seems few and far between.

[CheeselandSkies]

7 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

What exactly do these people (SPC, Storm Chasers, Social Media crazies) keep seeing to make them get so bullish on severe risks the last few weeks? 

Literally, twitter had people talking about 1974 outbreak for Ohio last week, now they're talking about May 3, 1999 for the Great Plains/Oklahoma next week. I'm assuming those are rare events. Why is everyone so crazy bullish? 

After these events underperform, what exactly is not occurring that these people keep expecting to happen? Is it not enough instability? Is it not high enough dew points?
 

IMO, the hype for 4/2 was the stupidest thing I've ever seen in the era of social media weather "forecasting." There was nowhere near the model consistency or agreement on a high-end tornado outbreak; and the trough geometry was totally different than either of the two Super Outbreaks and most of the other known top-tier violent outbreaks.

SPC may have inadvertently fueled it by outlining the 15% hatched -driven moderate risk. There are some forecasters there who seem to tailor their outlooks to the "worst-case scenario" rather than the most likely. I disagree with this, but if they feel that's the best way to fulfill their mission to protect lives and property, that's fine.

[Floydbuster]

I just think this year feels a little more hype driven than past years. Whether or not that's because of La Nina or because of storm chasers being disappointed they haven't had 1974 or 2011 chase seasons, I don't know.

I do feel like everyone is a little too eager to err on the side of enhanced severe threats than the likelihood that they're more scattered. When I'd forecast "the potential for some occasional scattered rumbles of thunder" they're saying things like "Mod risk! Tornado threats! Chase mode!" and I think its way off. I'm speaking less about the official mets and more about social media, although local mets seem to buy into the hype too and that impacts people's opinions when it seems 90% of these go bust. Twitter today is literally post after post of people coming down off their Monday tornado high as the models have significantly backed off as severe a threat for the plains next week, and depression with the likelihood of a cold snap for most of the remaining weeks of April.

My original question was whether there are things they see that make them expect such hellish weather that don't come to fruition, or if it's more that these people are seeing what they want to see? Two very big differences.

 

[Floydbuster]

18 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That enhanced was such a screw up, there's been more Tor Warnings in the marginal areas down south

[andyhb]

CIPS analogs are absolutely jacked for Tuesday in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Going to be pending convection from Monday I'm sure, but the setup seems to be there for a significant and potentially widespread event.

[CheeselandSkies]

The forecast surface pattern for Tuesday afternoon/evening looks pretty darn near ideal for a significant mid-to-upper MS Valley severe weather outbreak (much as it was on 3/31 last year) and I'm seeing many NAM forecast soundings with large 3CAPE values and strong low-level shear; however there are some caveats.

 - Most of those NAM soundings also have very wonky wind profiles above 700mb, with sharp backing to due southerly at 500mb followed by veering again but weakening at 300mb.

- 18Z GFS wipes out instability across IA/IL with a huge amount of ongoing convection throughout the day. This is likely overdone; but still a legitimate potential fly in the ointment.

[RCNYILWX]

The forecast surface pattern for Tuesday afternoon/evening looks pretty darn near ideal for a significant mid-to-upper MS Valley severe weather outbreak (much as it was on 3/31 last year) and I'm seeing many NAM forecast soundings with large 3CAPE values and strong low-level shear; however there are some caveats.
 - Most of those NAM soundings also have very wonky wind profiles above 700mb, with sharp backing to due southerly at 500mb followed by veering again but weakening at 300mb.
- 18Z GFS wipes out instability across IA/IL with a huge amount of ongoing convection throughout the day. This is likely overdone; but still a legitimate potential fly in the ointment.

Synoptically it's definitely a good setup. I noticed the more meridional flow pattern aloft resulting in the backing you noted. That looks most problematic over Iowa due to the closed off mid-upper low. There will likely be very good sfc-700 mb veering, which may be enough to get it done despite the backing aloft unless/until things get too messy.

Wind profiles are better with south and eastward extent but then the lapse rates are forecast to be pretty weak during the day on Tuesday.

Certainly possible the GFS is overdone with elevated convection near and north of the front, but it does make sense conceptually to have some. I think it's pretty likely the warm front will get hung up a bit farther south in the LOT CWA until the late afternoon and evening.

Haven't looked at latest guidance today because I'm on midnight shifts. Last night I was most concerned locally about Tuesday night when the lapse rates improve and strong forcing arrives while the stout southerly low level flow does work in offsetting nocturnal stabilization.

[nvck]

LOL at all the weenies on Twitter disappointed that tomorrow is downtrending for OK

[CheeselandSkies]

On 4/14/2024 at 7:51 AM, nvck said:

LOL at all the weenies on Twitter disappointed that tomorrow is downtrending for OK

Hey, I kind of am. I grew up on '90s TWC tornado docs with tons of footage from 4/26/91 since it was THE recent major outbreak of record at the time (as well as one of the first, along with 3/13/90, to take place in the camcorder era with a lot of home tornado video, although still nothing like now when everyone's phone can record 1080p or 4K video). I like to armchair chase a good Plains outbreak if I'm not able to chase it myself. I stay the **** off social media, though. It's long been a wretched hive of scum and villainy and it's only getting worse.

4/26/91 was also considered a major coup for the comparatively primitive NWP of the time; but I now believe it could just as easily have gone the way this one has. It was just "luck" from a forecasting standpoint that a lot of meteorologists called for a major outbreak based on what they saw several days in advance, and it verified.

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

12z guidance seems good

[CheeselandSkies]

Tomorrow certainly going to be very interesting...ought to be at least a couple strongsomewhere near the IA/IL/MO intersection. As to exactly where in that vicinity at this point...

Picking a target on 3/31 last year was easy (except the morning of when the HRRR started to make western IL look really good; but fortunately I came to my senses). This is giving me unpleasant vibes of 4/4 when I sat in Mt. Pleasant just long enough to miss both the Pleasantville and Table Grove/Lewistown storms. Ended up going for the latter but was stuck on the wrong side as it coalesced and went tornado-warned, so I just threw in the towel and started driving for home. A chaser I've been acquainted with for a long time and long held in high regard was in a similar situation (probably only about 10-15 minutes ahead of me out of Mt. Pleasant), tried to core-punch to get a view, and ended up having a very bad time of it so I'm glad I didn't do that.

[Chicago Storm]

30 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Tomorrow certainly going to be very interesting...ought to be at least a couple strongsomewhere near the IA/IL/MO intersection. As to exactly where in that vicinity at this point...

Tomorrow is very uncertain and murky at this point.

Many more questions than answers.

[cyclone77]

Some models are showing multiple broken bands of storms tomorrow simultaneously.  May be a challenge for those who wish to chase this event.  Would love to be out there tomorrow giving it a go, but alas I'll be at work lol.

[mnchaserguy]

I want to chase tomorrow but it looks really messy. An initial band of severe storms comes through Iowa early afternoon and mixes up the environment. Highly doubt anything substantial happens after that initial band comes through, unless you get way down to southeast IA or northern MO, which is out of range for me on a Tuesday. Hoping the 0z CAMs look more promising for the later afternoon. The early band may still produce a couple tors but it’ll be damn near impossible to know where or when to be on it to have a chance seeing anything.


.

[andyhb]

18z Euro was very impressive for tomorrow and probably worthy of a MDT risk. Gives ample time to destabilize with 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH becoming common along a 50 kt LLJ over SE IA, NE MO, and far W IL by 21z. Signal is for a discrete/semi-discrete band of cells along the arcing Pacific front/dryline with better lapse rates thanks to CAA aloft closer to the primary upper low.

There are a number of larger synoptic N MO/IA events that looks like this one at 500 mb (5/27/1995, 4/8/1999, 3/31/2023, 4/11/2001 amongst them), and the dryslot in the mid levels as 700-500 mb, which is absolutely paramount for these types of events, looks pretty potent. I also noticed that most of the CAMs, despite different evolutions, ended up with robust cells with strong UH across some portion of the region, both at 12z and 18z.

[CheeselandSkies]

17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

18z Euro was very impressive for tomorrow and probably worthy of a MDT risk. Gives ample time to destabilize with 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH becoming common along a 50 kt LLJ over SE IA, NE MO, and far W IL by 21z. Signal is for a discrete/semi-discrete band of cells along the arcing Pacific front/dryline with better lapse rates thanks to CAA aloft closer to the primary upper low.

There are a number of larger synoptic N MO/IA events that looks like this one at 500 mb (5/27/1995, 4/8/1999, 3/31/2023, 4/11/2001 amongst them), and the dryslot in the mid levels as 700-500 mb, which is absolutely paramount for these types of events, looks pretty potent. I also noticed that most of the CAMs, despite different evolutions, ended up with robust cells with strong UH across some portion of the region, both at 12z and 18z.

Yeah, picture is becoming *a bit* clearer. Pretty much all 18Z CAMs agree on robust supercell development in a solid parameter space, most in the far SE IA vicinity (3KM NAM a little further west). Looks like it's going to be another drive to Mt. Pleasant, IA and evaluate kind of day, need to be more decisive than I was on 4/4/23.

Getting my cameras charged...