CheeselandSkies Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 9 hours ago, madwx said: Just look how it’s resolving the convection in Minnesota. Should give you some peace of mind Pretty sure none of the CAMs I usually check on a regular basis (HRRR, 3K NAM, FV3) accurately resolved the MCS currently passing through southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Just now, CheeselandSkies said: Pretty sure none of the CAMs I usually check on a regular basis (HRRR, 3K NAM, FV3) accurately resolved the MCS currently passing through southern Wisconsin. Typical for this kind of pattern tho right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Packing a decent punch here despite no longer being warned. Twice blown over one of the plant stands on my balcony. #wewillrebuild 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 This morning’s 3k NAM is trash. Didn’t initialize correctly, not even picking the storms currently rolling through Chicagoland this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Think I’m just not going to expect any storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: This morning’s 3k NAM is trash. Didn’t initialize correctly, not even picking the storms currently rolling through Chicagoland this morning SPC's 13Z outlook is a case study in "the struggle is real." Found my one plant stand blown over again by the round we got this morning; and we got so much rain between the multiple rounds since yesterday evening that any in pots lacking drain holes were being drowned in water. HRRR thinks we should get in on some more boomers this aft/eve. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Furthermore, tomorrow seems like the kind of pattern that has historically supported sneaky S WI/N IL summer sig events...if everything lines up just right. Quote General expectation is for warm front to extend eastward from a surface low near the SD/NE/IA border intersection along the MN/IA border vicinity into southern WI. Currently, none of the 33-37 hour CAM solutions really suggest such, but as we know... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: This morning’s 3k NAM is trash. Didn’t initialize correctly, not even picking the storms currently rolling through Chicagoland this morning HRRR is trash too. Not handling this current line well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 The HRRR is insistent on convection erupting and a linear looking MCS congealing very quickly around 7-8PM in the IA/IL/WI tri-state region and then bowing southeast across S WI, N IL into NW IN in the late evening/early overnight hours. The HRDPS supports that as does the 3km NAM. The globals sort of show that for today but have better support for a similar looking setup tomorrow night. We may pull off the rare "MCS wave" getting three consecutive nights of evening or nocturnal boomers here if it all comes together. ETA: Upgrade to Enhanced on Day 2 for E IA/N IL/N IN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Miss south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 LOL at SPC in issuing a Watch for our county at 12:46 PM EDT, 20 minutes after IWX issued a warning for us, which was promptly canceled an hour later. I was out spotting and only got a 48 MPH gust, but there were a few trees/limbs down in the area, including a limb into my daughter's brand new fence and shed. The rest of the tree is leaning against the power pole in the background. There was a nice little feature on radar as the line approached (I failed grab the couplet on velocity) that had me concerned, but nothing came of it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 The big one, two punch beginning soon. Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142015Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile, the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and potential for some storm organization. Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two, with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this evening, with a continued severe-wind threat. Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this area as well, if storms can mature. While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears imminent across the region. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Good lil pattern we find ourselves in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 The cu field overhead sorta has that ominous day of look to them. Let's roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 Tonight looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 14 Share Posted July 14 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: The big one, two punch beginning soon. Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142015Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile, the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and potential for some storm organization. Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two, with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this evening, with a continued severe-wind threat. Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this area as well, if storms can mature. While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears imminent across the region. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... New severe thunderstorm watch for this area, valid until 1:00 central time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Hoping the line holds together enough to pack a decent punch this far east. It’ll be a close call. Should still get some thunder and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Metro Rockford getting the fire hose lined up at them again tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 2 day rain total of 2.63” so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Really good light show in the small leading WAA wing. ETA: Big boy wind with this line. No wind report at KDKB on the 9:15 observation. The ASOS is damaged per the METAR report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 tornado warning near Geneva IL Quote Kane IL- 932 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL KANE COUNTY... At 931 PM CDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located along a line extending from near Lily Lake to near Elburn, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Coming in hot for the metro 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Law enforcement reported funnel cloud in Elburn. Coming right into Geneva now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Chicago severe-warned storm (60mph recently at Woodridge) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Lightning is continuous with this line moving in. Amazing strobe show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Fairly impressive local rainfall in GRR with this MCV. “warm advection wing” band of convection has been parked overhead for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 today looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 10 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Hoping the line holds together enough to pack a decent punch this far east. It’ll be a close call. Should still get some thunder and heavy rain. I slept through most of last night’s storms. I woke up to some rumbles, looked at radar and the line was decaying. I guess I didn’t miss much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 For my area, it will depend on how soon the storms can fire. The latest HRRR doesn't show much firing until after it is east and south of Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 15 Share Posted July 15 Majority of CAM solutions are leaning toward a miss south for most of Wisconsin, thus SPC having the Enhanced where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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