CheeselandSkies Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Either way, I don't understand SPC's lack of even a hatched area for any hazard on the Day 3 outlook... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 7 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Either way, I don't understand SPC's lack of even a hatched area for any hazard on the Day 3 outlook... Same. Enhanced days are significant weather days so going to have a hatched area definitely for wind and probably tornadoes. Makes 0 sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 34 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Same. Enhanced days are significant weather days so going to have a hatched area definitely for wind and probably tornadoes. Makes 0 sense. The 30% contour alone (doesn't need a hatched area) drives an "Enhanced" category; but pattern recognition alone (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) suggests this event will be capable of producing significant severe weather of some type, perhaps widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The 30% contour alone (doesn't need a hatched area) drives an "Enhanced" category; but pattern recognition alone (compact, negatively tilted shortwave, deepening surface low with rich moisture in the warm sector) suggests this event will be capable of producing significant severe weather of some type, perhaps widespread. I agree. But the 30% area will likely need one from evolving qlcs. And hatched area will be needed further west for tornado threat near sfc low and large hail threat with initial discrete supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 End of NAM hype but Sunday is looking more and more interesting. Has already looked pretty solid on globals the last couple of days too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 like that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Gonna be interesting to see how tomorrow turns out, hoping we get a decent line at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 todays sw is better than a realized and well timed, my some lapse rate pingers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 Lots of small hail with this cell heading into the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Looks like another 2% MCV threat popped up for the WI/IL stateline region on the Day 2 outlook (marginal was way down in S MO on yesterday's Day 3 outlook). SPC is on top of this one so it probably won't do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Wicked supercell passed just west of Dryden Ontario earlier. Quite the storm setup going on. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 3 hours ago, Gobucks15 said: I’m shocked this area doesn’t have a slight risk today. Definitely expect a few warnings this afternoon Today definitely has that stormy feel to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 49 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Today definitely has that stormy feel to it Lapse rates aren't great and the storms are outpacing the better shear. If the shear was just a little more pronounced in the warm sector, I'd like our odds for more widespread severe weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: Lapse rates aren't great and the storms are outpacing the better shear. If the shear was just a little more pronounced in the warm sector, I'd like our odds for more widespread severe weather. I’ll take just some good ole GV. Save the severe stuff for when we get those ridge riders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 35 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts Y'all are definitely getting the goods. Seems the city's getting slammed right now too, maybe even with some small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Just now, Powerball said: Y'all definitely gettign the goods. Seems the city's getting slammed right now too, maybe even with some small hail. I was tending to the garden when the drops and winds picked up. As soon as I went inside the winds hit. Almost got caught. Would have quite interesting not gonna lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts I left work (intentionally) to go through one of those. It was some awesome heavy rains. Definitely some good winds too. Police had to block a road on my way home making it a totally dirt road adventure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Well that was fun. Just got to experience a wet micro burst. Couldn’t see a damn thing trees going crazy. Somehow have power. I’d definitely say it was a solid 30 seconds of 60-65mph gusts Quote 0330 PM TORNADO LIVONIA 06/05/2024 THE LIVONIA EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE EXTENDING FROM LYNDON TO NORMAN ST TO SIX MILE AND MERRIMAN RD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Sadly the Livonia tornado killed a two year old baby from a tree hitting a house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 Just missed my dad’s house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 SPC has Day 4/5 outlooks out for portions of the central-northern Plains to Midwest for Wednesday/Thursday. Global models show moisture returning north under a brisk northwest flow aloft; but not much in the way of a discernible surface response (deep SLP center, 850mb LLJ) for a focused threat. Will have to keep an eye on finer-scale mesoscale details for that, if it materializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 More recent runs of the GFS since my earlier post show a more robust low-level response; so could certainly get interesting on Thursday afternoon/evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 I was starting to get disappointed today with the early convection runs. I'm hoping this last one isn't a tease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 updated d2 isn't terrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 hrrr continues to sell timing keeping most of the metro in the game tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 77/63. Cloud cover hanging on. Beginning to think Minneapolis is going to be screw-zoned today. Morning convection mostly stayed just south, and the evening redevelopment is currently progged to go just north. 0.18” precipitation total today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Svr stms popping to my W with strong hail sigs. Couple hrs, and they should be on my doorstep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 BWCA has a strong cell that's Tornado warned. Bad place to get caught in that. Lots of campers right now in that area. Radar dbz 70+ with the core of the cell, and a hook sig off the SW edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Bad timing and lake suppression here again. 30% POP forecast usually means 0% coverage here. Really need one of those stalled out warm fronts with nocturnal convection to get any rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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