2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[Chinook]

new severe storm watch for Minneapolis-St. Paul

[OrdIowPitMsp]

43 minutes ago, Chinook said:

new severe storm watch for Minneapolis-St. Paul

Ready for it. Just brought all the kids toys into the garage.

[bowtie`]

5 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Ready for it. Just brought all the kids toys into the garage.

Just saw on a feed here that the police at the Minnesota State Fair were telling people to take shelter. Everything turn out OK?

[OrdIowPitMsp]

12 hours ago, bowtie` said:

Just saw on a feed here that the police at the Minnesota State Fair were telling people to take shelter. Everything turn out OK?

Yeah no injuries or major damage. This is the second time they’ve had to evacuate the state fair this year. 

[Torchageddon]

I'm in the tiny SLIGHT today here in SON, Wunderground indicates chance of hail in some of those storms. Warming up fast to 29C later. SPC wrote:

Quote

Stronger mid-level winds
   associated with this feature will generally remain confined to
   Canada. But, modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly
   low/mid-level flow should be present over parts of Lower MI this
   afternoon.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Activity around here on Tuesday evening/night had prolific lightning production. It was probably a top 10 light show.

Ended up with a peak wind gust of 53MPH at ORD, with some blowing dirt/dust for awhile as well, as it has been dry and outflow winds were well ahead of any rain/t'storm activity.

[Torchageddon]

Cells just starting to form near Kingsbridge ON which will be heading towards me by dinner. That line north is okay but becoming better defined. Delayed a bit from my hourlies, rainfall amounts reduced. Hearing some thunder since 4:30.

[Malacka11]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Activity around here on Tuesday evening/night had prolific lightning production. It was probably a top 10 light show.

Ended up with a peak wind gust of 53MPH at ORD, with some blowing dirt/dust for awhile as well, as it has been dry and outflow winds were well ahead of any rain/t'storm activity.

Have to agree that was the best night lightning I think I've ever seen

[Stevo6899]

Storms popped just to my east and wow impressive cloud deck. Don't get to see them this tall very often. I wish I could upload a Pic but quality and size of pic won't allow it.

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Storms popped just to my east and wow impressive cloud deck. Don't get to see them this tall very often. I wish I could upload a Pic but quality and size of pic won't allow it.

Kinda surprised they fizzled out on their way to the metro

[Powerball]

12 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Kinda surprised they fizzled out on their way to the metro

Given some folks are still without power and clean up is still ongoing from the storms a few days ago, that was probably for the best.

[Stebo]

14 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Kinda surprised they fizzled out on their way to the metro

 

2 hours ago, Powerball said:

Given some folks are still without power and clean up is still ongoing from the storms a few days ago, that was probably for the best.

Lapse rates being ass and lack of shear in the Metro saved us and yeah we don't need more destructive storms.

[Brian D]

16 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Storms popped just to my east and wow impressive cloud deck. Don't get to see them this tall very often. I wish I could upload a Pic but quality and size of pic won't allow it.

If you can upload your pics on your computer (if you have one), you edit them in Paint. Resize, and change format (GIF), and they will be small enough to upload here without using a ton of bytes. I do this with all pics, if necessary, even NWS story board graphics. 

[Stevo6899]

8 hours ago, Brian D said:

If you can upload your pics on your computer (if you have one), you edit them in Paint. Resize, and change format (GIF), and they will be small enough to upload here without using a ton of bytes. I do this with all pics, if necessary, even NWS story board graphics. 

Right on, thanks for the tip/info but most of the time not near my pc. 

[Stevo6899]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

 

Lapse rates being ass and lack of shear in the Metro saved us and yeah we don't need more destructive storms.

Not following severe weather and these parameters you just mentioned, it definitely felt muggy enough and with full sun I didn't expect the storms to fizzle. Just goes to show you how much goes into severe forecasting. Nws issued a watch so I think they thought the parameters were good enough but nonetheless they fizzled and you out meteorology'd them lol. Perhaps they were just playing it safe and getting the word out because as stated, many just went through bad storms a few days before.

[CheeselandSkies]

A few pop-up severe storms in the region today, still hearing booms from the one that just rolled through southwest Madison.

Almost looks like a legit supercell here in far SE MN approaching the MS River, although that outflow suggests production is unlikely.

[Geoboy645]

25 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

A few pop-up severe storms in the region today, still hearing booms from the one that just rolled through southwest Madison.

Almost looks like a legit supercell here in far SE MN approaching the MS River, although that outflow suggests production is unlikely.

Today feels like June or July 21st, not September 21st with the afternoon popup-style, and occasionally severe storms. Very strange feeling to say the least. 

[IWXwx]

Out of the blue (or gray), two tornadoes touched down last evening within 50 miles of here. One in Jay County, near the town of Portland, and other between Yorktown and Muncie in Delaware County. Both are in East Central IN.  IWX is calling Jay Co. a traditional tornado, while there is some speculation at IND about the Delaware Co. tornado:

"It may have been a 'hybrid' tornado with some storm scale rotation and some more landspout-like stretching of vertical vorticity processes occurring, but that's speculation."

A friend of mine from Yorktown messaged me a pic of that one that he caught.

[IWXwx]

Preliminary survey results from the Jay County tornadoes, EF-U and high-end EF-1

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
107 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 /1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/

...NWS Damage Survey for 09/22/2024 Tornado Event..

.Overview...

A low topped supercell develop Sunday evening west southwest of Portland. 

...Jay County Tornado...

Rating:                 EFU
Estimated Peak Wind:    0 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.21 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   50 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             09/22/2024
Start Time:             07:42 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 NNE Blaine / Jay County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          40.427 / -85.0383

End Date:               09/22/2024
End Time:               07:44 PM EDT
End Location:           2 NNE Blaine / Jay County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            40.4273 / -85.0345

Survey Summary:
This supercell produced an initial small, short track tornado in a corn field just east of the Salamonie
river south of CR W 75 before it dissipated. 

...Portland Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    110 mph
Path Length /statute/:  2.19 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   75 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             09/22/2024
Start Time:             07:45 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 NE Blaine / Jay County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          40.4274 / -85.0274

End Date:               09/22/2024
End Time:               07:51 PM EDT
End Location:           Portland / Jay County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            40.4331 / -84.987

Survey Summary:
A second stronger tornado developed immediately downstream near the intersection of W 75 S and Joan Dr and quickly 
gained intensity as it tracked east northeast, hitting the Portland high school which sustained considerable roof 
damage. Several homes nearby and further east on the west side of Portland sustained roof damage along with considerable 
tree damage noted along the track of this tornado.

 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

https://x.com/JayLesykWX/status/1838687526623809990

Injuries and damage from the LaGrange tornado

[sbnwx85]

Of course the day I take off work to go watch my White Sox set a record for futility I miss a funnel cloud go by.

[IWXwx]

34 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Of course the day I take off work to go watch my White Sox set a record for futility I miss a funnel cloud go by.

You need to make better choices in life.

Seriously though, you'll never see a team lose that many games again. You will hopefully get the chance to see a 'nader.

[IWXwx]

@HillsdaleMIWeatherThat cell that's been periodically dropping them across Northeast IN is in your neighborhood. You on it?

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

52 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

@HillsdaleMIWeatherThat cell that's been periodically dropping them across Northeast IN is in your neighborhood. You on it?

Had a nice wall cloud briefly and then died

[sbnwx85]

5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

You need to make better choices in life.

Seriously though, you'll never see a team lose that many games again. You will hopefully get the chance to see a 'nader.

And of course the Sox won 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

@HillsdaleMIWeatherThat cell that's been periodically dropping them across Northeast IN is in your neighborhood. You on it?

I must have been on the opposite side of it cause I see a bunch of videos from Camden MI of the tornado that went through

[IWXwx]

I KNEW that I should have made a play on the warm front, but decided against it at the last minute. I even know the road network pretty well up there. Also, the storm motion was such that it would have been an easy chase.

It was a marginal threat for spinners and it was expected that they most likely would be fairly weak, but you don't get very many chances to chase in this part of the country.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
450 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 /350 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/

...NWS Damage Survey for 09/24/24 Event...

Thunderstorms developed along a warm front, resulting in the
development of a total of 4 tornadoes. 

We would like to extend our thanks to the spotters, public and 
media outlets that passed on reports during the event, as well as 
emergency management officials that assisted in investigating the 
damage. 

..Noble County IN EF1 Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    105 mph
Path Length /statute/:  7.47 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   0 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             09/24/2024
Start Time:             04:13 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 SSE Ligonier / Noble County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          41.4319 / -85.5737

End Date:               09/24/2024
End Time:               04:36 PM EDT
End Location:           2 ESE Topeka / Noble County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            41.5236 / -85.4971

Survey Summary:
This tornado started just east of Engle Lake, knocking down some
trees in a residential area. As it continued northward, some of
the strongest damage was sustained to a house, which had some of
its roofing ripped off and a wall pushed in. Other houses and
farm buildings sustained roof damage and more trees were knocked
down or snapped as it continued on crossing highway 6. One large
chicken building had its entire outer shell removed. It came to
an end just before the Noble/Lagrange county line.

..Lagrange County EF1 Tornado...

Rating:                 EF1
Estimated Peak Wind:    95 mph
Path Length /statute/:  1.92 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   125 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               2

Start Date:             09/24/2024
Start Time:             05:01 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 NE Oliver Lake / Lagrange County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          41.5975 / -85.3706

End Date:               09/24/2024
End Time:               05:08 PM EDT
End Location:           2 SSW Plato / Lagrange County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            41.6176 / -85.3453

Survey Summary:
The storm that caused tornadic damage to Noble county intensified
again and moved northeast. After initially dropping down around
the intersection of 300 S and 300 E it continued northeastward
damaging barns and knocking down trees. It completely destroyed
one barn building and ripped the roof off and knocked the walls
down from a chicken housing structure. The tornado dissipated
shortly thereafter in a field. A buggy was blown over in the 2900
block of County Road E 300 S, with 2 occupants suffering minor
injuries. 

.St Joseph IN EFO Tornado...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    70 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.29 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   260 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             09/24/2024
Start Time:             05:49 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 E Indian Village / St. Joseph County / IN
Start Lat/Lon:          41.7065 / -86.185

End Date:               09/24/2024
End Time:               05:51 PM EDT
End Location:           3 NNW Mishawaka / St. Joseph County / IN
End Lat/Lon:            41.7071 / -86.1793

Survey Summary:
The combination of video relayed by local media and an NWS storm
survey concluded that a weak tornado occurred. The tornado began
in the vicinity of the east side of the Meier store parking lot.
Medium sized tree branches were downed near the beginning of the
tornado path.  The tornado tracked east and affected the La-Z-Boy
Furniture store and the Potbelly restaurant where some large tree
branches were downed.  The tornado crossed North Main Street with
some additional medium sized tree limbs downed near Raising
Cane's restaurant.  The tornado then dissipated over an adjacent
field to the west of the St. Joseph Health System medical
facility. 

.Camden MI EF0 Tornado...

Rating:                 EF0
Estimated Peak Wind:    65 mph
Path Length /statute/:  0.11 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   50 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             09/25/2024
Start Time:             06:22 PM EDT
Start Location:         2 SE Camden / Hillsdale County / MI
Start Lat/Lon:          41.7376 / -84.7356

End Date:               09/25/2024
End Time:               06:23 PM EDT
End Location:           2 SE Camden / Hillsdale County / MI
End Lat/Lon:            41.7382 / -84.7336

Survey Summary:
Minor damage occurred to 2 barns on Austin Road, between S Edon
Rd and Gilmore Road. The circulation was only briefly on the
ground with estimated wind speeds of around 65 mph. 

[sbnwx85]

Very thankful these were weak tornadoes. The track for the St. Joseph County one was through a Meijer parking lot and across Main Street. If it were stronger and stayed on the ground a hospital was next followed by my workplace. 

[sbnwx85]

Resurrecting this for perhaps the final or penultimate time.

Much of our subforum in at least a marginal risk today. And a few areas to the east seeing a marginal risk tomorrow.

Day 1

Day 2:

RAP and NAM showing potential for a possible spin up as the front moves through tomorrow late morning thru the afternoon particularly to my east. Nothing worth chasing IMO but something to keep an eye on locally

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Day 2 (Election Day) 2% ...