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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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Just before the main line moved in to O'Hare, etc., it was interesting watching that outflow boundary push to the southwest through northern Cook County, extending southeast toward downtown, from the cells that had fired in the northern tier counties and moved out over the lake.

Brother out by Des Plaines was in the backyard and commented how much cooler it felt just after that feature pushed through.

We figured it would stabilize things some - perhaps the confluence points with the main line ended up being evident with that Bensenville/O'Hare spin up area, along with that rotation just west of downtown over 290.

Interesting to think how things would have gone had that boundary not pushed inland - perhaps less/perhaps more effects say I-290 north.

Separately, saw some scattered tree damage this morning a few blocks north of Bensenville but nothing too crazy.

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Looks like the biggest wind occurred in a Kewanee to Camp Grove line. There was a measured 105 MPH gust in that area and reports of at least one blowdown of a corn field. Glad we didn't get that up this way.

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Pretty substantial structural damage at a supper club and a few nearby buildings near Kieler, WI. Wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to have been a brief but strong :twister:spin-up.

Also at work we have viewer-submitted video of what certainly appears to be a tornado (although it wasn't tagged as "confirmed" at the time) near Evansville (same town that was affected by the record-breaking early February EF2).

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Nice mini derecho that rolled through here this morning, with easily 60 MPH gusts. Luckily not too much damage.  Id guess we've had over 3 inches of rain here the past few days. Never seen the grass so lush in the middle of july.

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33 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nice mini derecho that rolled through here this morning, with easily 60 MPH gusts. Luckily not too much damage.  Id guess we've had over 3 inches of rain here the past few days. Never seen the grass so lush in the middle of july.

Yeah even I had some 50+ gusts. Knocked down a couple of my tomato’s even with cages on. Got some clean up to do after work with some of the limbs that came down.

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5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Yeah even I had some 50+ gusts. Knocked down a couple of my tomato’s even with cages on. Got some clean up to do after work with some of the limbs that came down.

Tbh the northern part of the line started rotating and the motion went more NNE as it rolled in. Obviously the dynamics weren't the same as they were with the complex back in the Chicago area, but anytime storms roll through in the dark, I get nervous.

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Comparisons of the Super-derecho of June 29, 2012 to the derecho/severe event of a couple days ago. Obviously, the storm of a couple days ago did not continue much toward Ohio or the East Coast. So, a huge difference there.

Somewhere back in my distant memory, I think I saved a SPC mesoanalysis of 9000 J/kg of MUCAPE on the night before the super-derecho (June 29, 00z) but I can't seem to be able to prove such a high value existed. The archived ILX shows 7481 J/kg in the morning. So, yeah.

500_120629_12.gif.5b56162fd4ddc65747bfb52149eff40e.gif

 

Mega-CAPE

ILX.gif.e2d446351e2432ae50a8b24e2a7b54be.gif

 

DVN.gif.40c8147a9d1f2468e7ab7b9e703f7074.gif

Mesoscale discussion from June 29, 2012

1038910047_soitwas6000cape.jpg.fda0d2ff25726bc3d338e8c5d25c7da2.jpg

 

mcd1298.gif.5d142bee39e33ef731958d5ed9c8c467.gif

 

a couple of days ago

gfs_z500_vort_us_1.thumb.png.2dc8e8652861db4a8c9e5f67235318de.png

sbcp_july_15_D1a.jpg.996b845ae4e805bdd737063daf79c675.jpg

 

sbcp_july_15_A1.jpg

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Here in Madison we were on the very northern fringe of Monday's complex; no severe weather (and barely any rain, which is fine given how much we got in the preceding couple of days) but like on June 24th, the setting sun combined with the departing storm clouds illuminated the whole sky pinkish-orange, as intracloud lightning flashed. Some people with a view to the east even caught the lightning with a large, horizon-spanning rainbow.
 

 

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So, now that I have some time...

Monday night's shift at ORD was top tier, right alongside 7/12/2023. There were numerous power flashes to the W-WNW, as the activity approached and then hit. The peak wind gust at ORD was 75MPH. However, there was not much in the way of damage, due to the lack of trees here at the OBS site. I know there were reports of a tornado over the airport field, but there was nothing that was visible nor any other concrete evidence that one was occurring/occurred. There was a brief moment of erratic winds, but that doesn't' necessarily mean a tornado.

Back home in North Naperville, destructive level damaging winds impacted the area. The preserve across from our apartment was hit hard, as well as down into North Naperville. Across this area, uprooted and snapped trees are widespread, in addition to widespread tree limbs downed. Straight-line wind damage in this area is likely in the 70-90MPH range. I made sure my wife was out on the balcony when the action hit, and she said "It was windy". Yea...a bit.

I then spent all of Tuesday and part of Wednesday with @RCNYILWX surveying out in the West/Southwest Metro, where we confirmed three tornadoes.

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

So, now that I have some time...

Monday night's shift at ORD was top tier, right alongside 7/12/2023. There were numerous power flashes to the W-WNW, as the activity approached and then hit. The peak wind gust at ORD was 75MPH. However, there was not much in the way of damage, due to the lack of trees here at the OBS site. I know there were reports of a tornado over the airport field, but there was nothing that was visible nor any other concrete evidence that one was occurring/occurred. There was a brief moment of erratic winds, but that doesn't' necessarily mean a tornado.

Back home in North Naperville, destructive level damaging winds impacted the area. The preserve across from our apartment was hit hard, as well as down into North Naperville. Across this area, uprooted and snapped trees are widespread, in addition to widespread tree limbs downed. Straight-line wind damage in this area is likely in the 70-90MPH range. I made sure my wife was out on the balcony when the action hit, and she said "It was windy". Yea...a bit.

I then spent all of Tuesday and part of Wednesday with @RCNYILWX surveying out in the West/Southwest Metro, where we confirmed three tornadoes.

@Chicago Storm's reply:

Dusty.gif.2c0517100153b233304eaec7e44b8e17.gif

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12 hours ago, bowtie` said:

lol on sticking the wife on the balcony for the spot report.

i also drove her into the naperville/woodridge EF-3 tornado back on June 20th, 2021, and distracted her while doing so by telling her to look for power flashes.

that was before we were married though. so, she knows what she's in for with me.

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The EF-1 tornado from Monday evening that extended from the near West Side to downtown Chicago is the first tornado inside of downtown Chicago since 1876.

An F3 tornado occurred on May 6th, 1876.

451863657_902687205220302_1513674654430277093_n.thumb.jpg.b7c503f0e8ed6d5ee6168cfa031d13be.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

i also drove her into the naperville/woodridge EF-3 tornado back on June 20th, 2021, and distracted her while doing so by telling her to look for power flashes.

that was before we were married though. so, she knows what she's in for with me.

Got mine heavily into weather after last years EF-0 hit within a quarter mile of my house. Now she’s always trying to figure out when the next severe weather event is.

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Confirmed tornado from earlier this week in Elkhart. Lots of trees toppled onto homes. No injuries or fatalities. This is only about a mile from where I grew up. Amazing to see virtually no damage outside of the tornado path... and tons of tree damage within this neigborhood.

May be an image of blueprint, floor plan, map and text that says 'ERIN July 16, 2024 EF1 Tornado Elkhart, IN BlaineAve Oxfardst St Pierre Moran Park San Hubbard Historic Roosevelt RenSt Piorre Moran Maist Morton EHubbardAyi WLusherAve Hawthorne ArstcS School Hudson- Hudson-Sterling Sterling Mayar UzabethS Folsom:St Hevey Bivd S-M ELusherAv EDinehartAve Pierre Moran EHerroldAye LusherAve Elkhe Sterling ECaritoncAys Pleasant-Prairie MortonA Carltan Ave W.Hively.Ave AVE Chicago Hivaly Sterling Monger emenitan Mennonite PoRpasT SMatnS DesmiondAve Seminary E-HüvelyAve PortlandAve Mishawaka Rd Concord ementary School E0 waka alkhar 0.13 0.25 Bontrager.Ave 0.5 Miles Hom Eikhar® nlap Mish Goshe Portag'

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Evansville from 7/15 now confirmed as a 1.23-mile EF0 path.

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/wisconsintornadoes

We've now edged out 2021 as the busiest year for :twister:in Wisconsin out of the last 11. Still behind 2010 with 46, and 2005's record of 62 is probably safe barring a surprise August outbreak (which is also what put that year so far ahead of everything else).

Still haven't had one rated EF3+, though and the longest track by far was Evansville-Lake Koshkonong on, go figure, February 8th.

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GFS has been teasing the next possible uptick in severe potential for the Midwest for the end of the month for a while now. Modest to moderate WNW to NW 500mb flow over 70s dewpoints. Signal is still there as of today's 12Z run, but it's still 7-8 days out so obviously much TBD regarding timing, location, mode and ceiling of threat.

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15 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

GFS has been teasing the next possible uptick in severe potential for the Midwest for the end of the month for a while now. Modest to moderate WNW to NW 500mb flow over 70s dewpoints. Signal is still there as of today's 12Z run, but it's still 7-8 days out so obviously much TBD regarding timing, location, mode and ceiling of threat.

SPC starting to come on board: 

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Upper ridging will spread across parts of the Plains and eastern
   states, while the subtropical high develops westward over the
   southern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8/Fri-Tue period. This
   will suppress severe thunderstorm potential for much of the CONUS.
   The exception will be a potentially more active period for parts of
   the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest due to a series of upper
   shortwave troughs migrating across the Canadian Prairies and parts
   of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the forecast period. 
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21 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

GFS has been teasing the next possible uptick in severe potential for the Midwest for the end of the month for a while now. Modest to moderate WNW to NW 500mb flow over 70s dewpoints. Signal is still there as of today's 12Z run, but it's still 7-8 days out so obviously much TBD regarding timing, location, mode and ceiling of threat.

Would make sense with the heat going on in WCAN right now. Any pattern breakers are going to come with some pretty turbulent weather

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