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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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These increases in potential storm severity and potential tornado chances always make me nervous now that I live out in the middle of nowhere.

I felt invincible living in Chicago based on the old “tall buildings” myth; but out here? Nerves are real having had a tornado touch down as close as 3 miles away last year.

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22 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I just went out and put supports on a bunch of plants, getting drenched in the process (81º dew).  I come inside and the radar shows this first severe line is going to miss north.

Well, the sw tail of the storm is building back to the wsw, so I'm getting hit good now.  There have been a bunch of close lightning strikes, something we don't often see from late-night MCSs.  One strike knocked my power out for a second.  The sirens are going off.

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, the sw tail of the storm is building back to the wsw, so I'm getting hit good now.  There have been a bunch of close lightning strikes, something we don't often see from late-night MCSs.  One strike knocked my power out for a second.  The sirens are going off.

Looking like you may be in line for a heck of a rainfall event.  

Ominous looking radar to be sure.  Looks like we're gonna get smoked here.  All depends on where the meso vorts setup/track whether we get the high-end stuff or not.  

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18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Models show it building up into Wisconsin as it moves further east in 2-3 hours

Have to wait.  There’s still a lot of CIN, but maybe the nocturnal low level jet breaks it.  I’m guessing mostly garden variety, but with isolated hail or spinups possible given the shear.  Don’t need a derecho IMBY.  

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10 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Have to wait.  There’s still a lot of CIN, but maybe the nocturnal low level jet breaks it.  I’m guessing mostly garden variety, but with isolated hail or spinups possible given the shear.  Don’t need a derecho IMBY.  

Storm motion would have the couple of counties to your south like me getting slammed, fun night ahead

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3 minutes ago, homedis said:

Wondering if the main bow near Oregon, IL will dive south of Chicago. Interesting that portion is warned for 70 while the parts N and S are warned for 80.

Got my back yard in its sights. Keeping the kids awake to head downstairs if it holds it’s intensity

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On 7/15/2024 at 7:58 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

I got 2.56" of rain (still raining lightly), the most from a single storm in about ten years I think.  Unfortunately, the wind blew it against the house for an hour, so it ran down the foundation and into the basement.

OOOF, that happened to us too.  First time in a long while our basement flooded.

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