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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Few if any CAMs really had the activity ongoing over southern WI right now; certainly not the HRRR. Something is up with my GR Level 3 and it won't load any radar data.

I think something’s broken, as the SPC site doesn’t have the IL watch and not all my weather apps alerted that.

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00Z HRRR at least sort of depicted the severe-warned storms were getting here right now better than previous runs. It has consistently wanted to send tonight's eventual MCS much further north and east of most other CAMS, missing southern Wisconsin (and thus most of SPC's Enhanced area).
 

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Yeah not sure what was up with that. 0Z HRRR, WRF-ARW and FV3 take the later tonight MCS well north and east of the Enhanced area. Their forecast must have been based entirely on the 12Z/18Z 3K NAM. 0Z 3K now splits the MCS presumably around air stabilized by the storms we got earlier.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah not sure what was up with that. 0Z HRRR, WRF-ARW and FV3 take the later tonight MCS well north and east of the Enhanced area. Their forecast must have been based entirely on the 12Z/18Z 3K NAM. 0Z 3K now splits the MCS presumably around air stabilized by the storms we got earlier.

Current radar trends seem to support the north path. Got the look that the entire enhanced will whiff north. 

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8 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Looking more like a SSE track than a SE track. Hoping for some good rumbles this morning for the east side.

Already splitting at least AA usually does OK with these big complexes.  

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Stable surface layer saved me.  The cell / cluster that formed out ahead of the bow meant business though.  Continuous thunder with booming positive CGs going off like bombs off to my SW.  I got a pretty big gust out of the south too.  I was waiting for the main show to hit from the NW, but the shelf surged over with little fanfare.  Stable surface layer definitely saved MBY this time, though still got a big branch down due to tree rot.

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7 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Already splitting at least AA usually does OK with these big complexes.  

That is true. All the PoPs avoided MBY last week. Glad to get some heavy rain. One of these days we will have our Derecho. Gotta love how most of the models have been off since yesterday.

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15 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

That is true. All the PoPs avoided MBY last week. Glad to get some heavy rain. One of these days we will have our Derecho. Gotta love how most of the models have been off since yesterday.

I was hoping this would be one that was going to just plow across Lower Michigan this morning but rather a solid MCS for SW MI and a decaying MCS for SE MI.  

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17 minutes ago, Lightning said:

I was hoping this would be one that was going to just plow across Lower Michigan this morning but rather a solid MCS for SW MI and a decaying MCS for SE MI.  

Kinda looks like the east side of the mcs trying to get going a bit again. I hear you it’s been awhile since we had a statewide MCS or MCV

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9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Considering the mcs was originally forecast to die before reaching Lansing, I'll gladly take this 

The HRRR and some HiRez models had it blasting through pretty strong but yes several models did have it dying quicker.  I noticed there was a battle with what would happen in SE MI.

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35 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Kinda looks like the east side of the mcs trying to get going a bit again. I hear you it’s been awhile since we had a statewide MCS or MCV

It sure has been a good while.  Enough improvement not to be a bust but still a significantly less than SW MI got.

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1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Storm fail here last night, cap wouldn’t break. Didn’t see any precipitation.

My family members in Waseca/Mankato areas don't mind the break.  ;)

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