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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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mcd1379_full.png

 Mesoscale Discussion 1379
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...West-central into northeast Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 222355Z - 230200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Some increase in severe threat is expected for western and
   northern portions of Illinois. Damaging winds are the expected main
   hazard, but a conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is
   likely this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Some increase in severe potential can be expected
   across portions of western into northern Illinois this evening.
   Activity currently in Wisconsin near the surface low/warm front may
   eventually congeal and push farther southward into Illinois.
   Additionally, storms along the cold front may move in from the west.
   The current expectation is that activity will generally be more
   linear in terms of storm mode with primarily a threat of damaging
   winds. While 850 mb winds are expected to modestly increase this
   evening, the low-level shear vector orientation will not be overly
   favorable for QLCS circulations. It is possible some discrete
   elements could develop ahead of the front/convective line which
   would pose a marginally greater tornado risk. Another uncertainty is
   the low-level moisture with eastward extent. Current surface
   observations show a dry pocket in the Chicagoland vicinity. Some
   higher dewpoints do exist to the southwest and should make some
   attempt to advect northeastward tonight, but the exact magnitude of
   moisture return is uncertain.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html

 

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39 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I was up here

We waited until it came across the bay and as soon as it got close it spun up. They got so lucky in Port Austin. It was about a mile and a half off shore and about a 1/4 milee  wide. It was a legit tornado over water.

I didn't leave bad axe til about 10 minutes before the waterspout I didn't think it would come close enough to land with the haze to get a decent look at anything and then at the last minute drove up there. I'm about 2 miles se of your location in my Pic looking nw

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3 minutes ago, outflow said:

I didn't leave bad axe til about 10 minutes before the waterspout I didn't think it would come close enough to land with the haze to get a decent look at anything and then at the last minute drove up there. I'm about 2 miles se of your location in my Pic looking nw

Nice yeah we came up here for the chance of tors and waited out the storm across the bay. I thought for sure we were skunked then the storm got close to shore and spun up.

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Janesville is PDS warned.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

WIC105-230115-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-240623T0115Z/
Rock WI-
752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL ROCK COUNTY...

At 752 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Janesville, moving east at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Milton, Tiffany, Hanover, Johnstown Center, Avalon,
Afton, and Emerald Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 8918 4272 8917 4279 8878 4257 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 260DEG 35KT 4265 8898

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

 

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new confirmed tornado

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN WALWORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN KENOSHA COUNTIES...

At 831 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
extending from Como to near Lake Geneva to near Hebron, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

 

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Made it to southwest side of Janesville just after 7 p.m. Positioned four miles NW of JVL.

Stayed in the same spot for 30 minutes and watched a meso approach from the west. As it got closer, it finally tightened. It was time to hightail it back east.

Closer to town, a rotating wall cloud was readily apparent as it went tornado warned and sirens sounded.

We diverted south of the airport, which led to trees and a tough view but it was apparent things were rocking just to the north.

Home an hour later after a drive where we flirted with the edge of the bowing severe complex and some very impressive gusts.

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The QLCS Saturday evening/night was the second best action of the year here at home, behind Feb 27th (Kind of sad, isn't it).

Peak wind gusts of 50-55MPH and ended up with over 1" of rainfall.

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1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Enhanced risk for 30% wind introduced for our WI friends

I am not enthused by this at all. With how wet our soils are, and how most of our vulnerable trees, being the EAB ash trees, are either still in or have been in water. We are highly vulnerable to significant wind. And with it coming through at like 1am, that could cause even more issues. Even 60mph winds could cause issues tonight, let alone anything stronger than that.

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4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

I am not enthused by this at all. With how wet our soils are, and how most of our vulnerable trees, being the EAB ash trees, are either still in or have been in water. We are highly vulnerable to significant wind. And with it coming through at like 1am, that could cause even more issues. Even 60mph winds could cause issues tonight, let alone anything stronger than that.

Silver maple, cottonwood, Siberian elm are some others to be concerned with when it comes to wind and wet ground. Even locust trees. These already have weaker structures so to speak. Not a good situation with that rain/wind threat.

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2 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

I am not enthused by this at all. With how wet our soils are, and how most of our vulnerable trees, being the EAB ash trees, are either still in or have been in water. We are highly vulnerable to significant wind. And with it coming through at like 1am, that could cause even more issues. Even 60mph winds could cause issues tonight, let alone anything stronger than that.

For all the storms this year, been a while since we had an old-fashioned, southeastward-moving midnight classic Midwest 'Rachel. At least, one affecting southern Wisconsin.

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