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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That slight risk for this afternoon/evening definitely looks overdone.

While there's sufficient instability and moisture, shear is greatly lacking. Can already see the effects of that issue with the current activity in the DVN CWA being very outflow dominant.

A marginal risk for an isolated severe t'storm threat would have been sufficient.

On the flip-side, what a forecast change from what looked like a dry day just 12 hours ago. MCV magic...

Current radar certainly looks like another near north miss for a lot of us 

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4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Or it will shit the bed and I will get .02”. Fuck this pattern 

As soon as that Meso tickled it's toes in the Lake influence, it died a rapid death.

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53 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

@Stevo6899 looks like you’re about to get crushed again. The boundaries are popping off

I was at stoney creek when the first storm popped north of us. I hopped on my bike and made it home a lil bit ago just beating the rain. While I enjoy the heat, this Florida everyday rain around 3pm is annoying. I'm ready to go back to 75 and low humidity.

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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

I was at stoney creek when the first storm popped north of us. I hopped on my bike and made it home a lil bit ago just beating the rain. While I enjoy the heat, this Florida everyday rain around 3pm is annoying. I'm ready to go back to 75 and low humidity.

Flood in Detroit( 14 mile road underwater)

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12 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

image.thumb.png.96d55335ecefac076b2e92dadffb6496.png

Well this came out of nowhere. 

Multiple 0Z CAMs came in pretty hot for tomorrow across IA into S. WI. HRW-FV3 did as well, but it won't let me attach more.

1930198037_Screenshot2024-06-21at21-52-15ModelsNAM3kmCONUSPivotalWeather.thumb.png.73c59470ce9d1d2f0bf0f4302609edc0.png

2004268049_Screenshot2024-06-21at21-52-27ModelsNAM3kmCONUSPivotalWeather.thumb.png.d5b583f8a0fdfe5d8d11920e77f8ad64.png
1338184927_Screenshot2024-06-21at21-53-03ModelsHRRRPivotalWeather.thumb.png.c85614d7e4cdd5729991103028f37eaf.png

Still on the fence whether to try my luck with attempting to get a :twister:in Iowa again (after Keota last year, I've struck out three times there this year including April 26 and May 21), stay close to home and hope those discrete cells in WI on the 3KM verify, or stay *at* home and just watch the derecho roll in.

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Ironically enough, the last significant tornado in Michigan's thumb was an ef2 on June 26th 2021. It just grazed the lakeside town of Port Austin which was busier then normal with an annual outdoor music festival occurring and lots of people outdoors.  

Today is this year's annual festival and it just so happens to be another possible thumb type of tornado day with a warm front nearby. I'll be watching and waiting.

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watch incoming for west LOT

Mesoscale Discussion 1372
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IA...northern IL...and
   southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221756Z - 222000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, a
   couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are expected this
   afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely in the next hour or
   two.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates filtered
   diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary layer
   (middle 70s dewpoints) along/south of an east/west-oriented
   stationary boundary extending across portions of northern IA into
   southern WI. Over the next couple hours, a weak frontal wave
   currently near far northwest IA will track eastward along the
   boundary, promoting scattered thunderstorm development -- aided by
   the aforementioned destabilization and modest midlevel height falls
   ahead of a midlevel trough. 

   Around 50 kt of midlevel westerly flow atop a 30-40-kt southwesterly
   low-level jet (per regional VWP) will promote organized
   surface-based storms (including a few supercells) near the boundary.
   Easterly storm motions and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary
   may favor congealing cold pools and localized upscale growth, though
   the favorable shear profile (large clockwise-curved low-level
   hodographs) should encourage a few sustained semi-discrete
   supercells. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, a couple tornadoes, and
   isolated large hail are all possible with this activity. Current
   thinking is that severe storms will develop/mature in the 19-20Z
   time frame and persist into the evening hours. A watch is likely for
   parts of the area in the next hour or two.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/22/2024

 

mcd1372.png

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8 hours ago, outflow said:

Ironically enough, the last significant tornado in Michigan's thumb was an ef2 on June 26th 2021. It just grazed the lakeside town of Port Austin which was busier then normal with an annual outdoor music festival occurring and lots of people outdoors.  

Today is this year's annual festival and it just so happens to be another possible thumb type of tornado day with a warm front nearby. I'll be watching and waiting.

Missed the waterspout from this storm by about 5 minutes, couldn't get to a open spot along lake huron in time.

20240622_185338.jpg

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20 minutes ago, outflow said:

Missed the waterspout from this storm by about 5 minutes, couldn't get to a open spot along lake huron in time.

20240622_185338.jpg

I was up here

We waited until it came across the bay and as soon as it got close it spun up. They got so lucky in Port Austin. It was about a mile and a half off shore and about a 1/4 mile wide. It was a legit tornado over water.

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