SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That slight risk for this afternoon/evening definitely looks overdone. While there's sufficient instability and moisture, shear is greatly lacking. Can already see the effects of that issue with the current activity in the DVN CWA being very outflow dominant. A marginal risk for an isolated severe t'storm threat would have been sufficient. On the flip-side, what a forecast change from what looked like a dry day just 12 hours ago. MCV magic... Current radar certainly looks like another near north miss for a lot of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 DVN just gusted to 62mph. The storms are currently undercut but may quickly grow upscale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 45mph gusts so far. Dad in the QC said it got pretty wild there for a bit with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 interesting MCV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Current radar certainly looks like another near north miss for a lot of us I stand corrected, looking solid to at least get something to uncrunch the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Or it will shit the bed and I will get .02”. Fuck this pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Or it will shit the bed and I will get .02”. Fuck this pattern That outflow haha. Might get lucky and get a few sprinkles the way this is looking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Or it will shit the bed and I will get .02”. Fuck this pattern Yeah only got 0.11" here as well as the line sort of propagated over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Blanket severe over the metro for the outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Blessed with a micro cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Nice confirmed spin up tornado from the MCV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 4 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Or it will shit the bed and I will get .02”. Fuck this pattern As soon as that Meso tickled it's toes in the Lake influence, it died a rapid death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 The MCV ended up being pretty impressive with over 40 severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Just got nailed by a pop up cell on the tail end of this thing. Severe warned and ended up with pea size hail and some ~50 mph gusts. Best storm of the summer so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Another intense QLSC up in Quebec again. Last one just a few days ago. I’d be curious to find out storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Going through thunder withdrawals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Looks like watch in MN busted hard, strongest deep-layer shear remained behind the cold front with no sustained discrete development out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 @Stevo6899 looks like you’re about to get crushed again. The boundaries are popping off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 53 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: @Stevo6899 looks like you’re about to get crushed again. The boundaries are popping off I was at stoney creek when the first storm popped north of us. I hopped on my bike and made it home a lil bit ago just beating the rain. While I enjoy the heat, this Florida everyday rain around 3pm is annoying. I'm ready to go back to 75 and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Watching this outflow boundary interact right over head with the warm humid air is quite interesting. Watching clouds materialize west as back building looks like it’s about to begin. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: I was at stoney creek when the first storm popped north of us. I hopped on my bike and made it home a lil bit ago just beating the rain. While I enjoy the heat, this Florida everyday rain around 3pm is annoying. I'm ready to go back to 75 and low humidity. Flood in Detroit( 14 mile road underwater) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Well this came out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 12 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: Well this came out of nowhere. Multiple 0Z CAMs came in pretty hot for tomorrow across IA into S. WI. HRW-FV3 did as well, but it won't let me attach more. Still on the fence whether to try my luck with attempting to get a in Iowa again (after Keota last year, I've struck out three times there this year including April 26 and May 21), stay close to home and hope those discrete cells in WI on the 3KM verify, or stay *at* home and just watch the derecho roll in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Ironically enough, the last significant tornado in Michigan's thumb was an ef2 on June 26th 2021. It just grazed the lakeside town of Port Austin which was busier then normal with an annual outdoor music festival occurring and lots of people outdoors. Today is this year's annual festival and it just so happens to be another possible thumb type of tornado day with a warm front nearby. I'll be watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 watch incoming for west LOT Mesoscale Discussion 1372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IA...northern IL...and southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221756Z - 222000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary layer (middle 70s dewpoints) along/south of an east/west-oriented stationary boundary extending across portions of northern IA into southern WI. Over the next couple hours, a weak frontal wave currently near far northwest IA will track eastward along the boundary, promoting scattered thunderstorm development -- aided by the aforementioned destabilization and modest midlevel height falls ahead of a midlevel trough. Around 50 kt of midlevel westerly flow atop a 30-40-kt southwesterly low-level jet (per regional VWP) will promote organized surface-based storms (including a few supercells) near the boundary. Easterly storm motions and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary may favor congealing cold pools and localized upscale growth, though the favorable shear profile (large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs) should encourage a few sustained semi-discrete supercells. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, a couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are all possible with this activity. Current thinking is that severe storms will develop/mature in the 19-20Z time frame and persist into the evening hours. A watch is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or two. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/22/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Why not.Running over to west of Janesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 8 hours ago, outflow said: Ironically enough, the last significant tornado in Michigan's thumb was an ef2 on June 26th 2021. It just grazed the lakeside town of Port Austin which was busier then normal with an annual outdoor music festival occurring and lots of people outdoors. Today is this year's annual festival and it just so happens to be another possible thumb type of tornado day with a warm front nearby. I'll be watching and waiting. Missed the waterspout from this storm by about 5 minutes, couldn't get to a open spot along lake huron in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 20 minutes ago, outflow said: Missed the waterspout from this storm by about 5 minutes, couldn't get to a open spot along lake huron in time. I was up here We waited until it came across the bay and as soon as it got close it spun up. They got so lucky in Port Austin. It was about a mile and a half off shore and about a 1/4 mile wide. It was a legit tornado over water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 That tornado near Marshall WI is nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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