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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OHC033-077-139-150015-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240315T0015Z/
Richland OH-Huron OH-Crawford OH-
803 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
RICHLAND...SOUTHERN HURON AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

At 802 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Plymouth, or 18 miles northeast of Bucyrus, moving east
at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Plymouth around 810 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Shenandoah, North Fairfield, Tiro, Olivesburg, and Greenwich.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take
immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8284 4099 8286 4100 8283 4111 8283
      4112 8243 4099 8244 4099 8242 4086 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 270DEG 34KT 4099 8273

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
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Mesoscale Discussion 0244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Southeastern Indiana into portions of
   southwest/south-central Ohio

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 44...

   Valid 142356Z - 150100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues.

   SUMMARY...An area of greater tornado potential is evident from
   southeast Indiana into southwestern Ohio over the next 1-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Three supercells from just east of Indianapolis to
   northwest of Columbus, OH have shown a rightward turn to the
   southeast. Surface flow remains backed in southwestern portions of
   Ohio. Considering the observed storm motion and regional VAD
   profiles, an area of greater tornado threat is evident from
   southeastern Indiana into southwestern Ohio. 850 mb winds are
   expected to increase this evening as well. Should storms remain
   discrete and surface wind backed, the environment would become more
   favorable in the next 1-3 hours.
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Winchester IN just had a tornado go right through the middle of town.
This is turning into a tornado outbreak very quickly.

Pretty solid environment with decent spacing between the storms. It’s allowed all of them to roll pretty good distances
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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

this was a tornado W of Celina

tornado west of salina.jpg

Dang! I knew it was gonna drop one. I tried to get in behind it in Grant County IN, but had to core punch to get there. It slowed me down enough that even though I chased it to almost the state line, I couldn’t catch up. Thing was moving at 70 mph! 

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Reports of “mass casualties” in Winchester IN. I’m trying to get more info

Edit: The chat post I got that from was just taken down, so take it for what it’s worth. However, there are reports of a Taco Bell flattened, a Goodwill with severe damage and a Wal Mart damaged

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I have to say, I did *not* expect Western Ohio to take such a tornadic strike. I didn't think it was quite warm enough for the clash with the front to produce these kinds of twisters that they experienced in Indiana and Western Ohio today.

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3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

I know it's kinda the thing everyone says lately but the SPC really dropped the ball this evening when it was obvious the event was uptrending, they didn't even increase the areas that got hit by likely violent tornadoes to a slight risk until the 9PM update.

Agreed. There was a clear signal a 10% was justified by noon. 

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21 minutes ago, largetornado said:

Agreed. There was a clear signal a 10% was justified by noon. 

While I agree with the sentiment, this event (from my point of you) didn't look that impressive until late afternoon. I'm still surprised by how powerful some of these twisters were in western Ohio.

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3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

While I agree with the sentiment, this event (from my point of you) didn't look that impressive until late afternoon. I'm still surprised by how powerful some of these twisters were in western Ohio.

Look at the STP Map from the 18z HRRR. And the mesoscale analysis had  STP of 3+ for a lot of Ohio throughout the day that could have been caught by the 4pm update. Additionally effective SRH(IMO the signal biggest predictor of strong/violent tornadoes) was 300+ on the Mesoanalysis. I’m just saying to not raise to an enhanced, was a mistake based on the signals I saw. My guess is the SPC was thinking veering would tamper any threats which veering was specifically mentioned in the 4pm update

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