Stebo Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Just now, DocATL said: It was posted in the wrong thread as I stated earlier. I’m sorry. My goodness. I’ll delete it and we can all move on. . My point still matters, we don't need op model 348hr images posted ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 My point still matters, we don't need op model 348hr images posted ever.I’ve commented on this in the banter thread. Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 ready for some garden variety+ later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 SoWis tornado warning - radar indicated rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 I hope this isn't a silly question to ask, but what does it mean if there's a lot of red or whatever but not green? Like a one-sided velocity signature, I guess you could say? Does that mean rotation is breaking down or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 another two tornado warnings (almost right at Cyclone77's place) and also an unwarned cell to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 quick increase in reflectivity at Dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4 Author Share Posted March 4 Some of these tornado warnings today have been eek bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 52 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I hope this isn't a silly question to ask, but what does it mean if there's a lot of red or whatever but not green? Like a one-sided velocity signature, I guess you could say? Does that mean rotation is breaking down or something? Which radar site is that? KMKX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Some of these tornado warnings today have been eek bad. Yeah I lol'd. Not sure what that was all about. Did see some pretty nice supercell structures, including the eastern QC tor warned hailer a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Which radar site is that? KMKX? Whoops, looks like that was LOT. Completely failed to notice that somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 39 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Whoops, looks like that was LOT. Completely failed to notice that somehow Reds are outbounds, so in that case, winds blowing to the north. Could represent a surge of inflow. Generally when one color dominates like that it's either that or RFD depending on where the radar is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Over 20 severe hail reports so far in IA/IL/MO/WI. Looks like a slight risk definitely would've been warranted. No severe watch either. EDIT: Now over 30 reports of severe hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 10 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Over 20 severe hail reports so far in IA/IL/MO/WI. Looks like a slight risk definitely would've been warranted. No severe watch either. EDIT: Now over 30 reports of severe hail. Mostly they are pretty darn good with the outlooks. If anything they tend towards over forecasting (which is not a bad thing with severe weather). Just shows while we have gain a lot of knowledge there is a ways to go with the weather!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Small tornado today around Findlay, OH 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Yeah it's the 84hr NAM, but GFS is onboard too. It's something to watch at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 18z NAM is absolutely nasty in the Midwest (IA/IL) on Thursday. Other models generally are not as favorable although they appear to be shifting towards a solution where a coherent shortwave ejects ENE/NE after Wednesday, which would increase the threat. Very, very cold air aloft with temperatures approaching -20 at 500 mb and -45 to -50 and 300 mb means that you won't need a lot of moisture to get strong updrafts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, andyhb said: 18z NAM is absolutely nasty in the Midwest (IA/IL) on Thursday. Other models generally are not as favorable although they appear to be shifting towards a solution where a coherent shortwave ejects ENE/NE after Wednesday, which would increase the threat. Very, very cold air aloft with temperatures approaching -20 at 500 mb and -45 to -50 and 300 mb means that you won't need a lot of moisture to get strong updrafts. Besides, on that plot posted above, moisture isn't even really a concern here. 500mb actually looked a little better on the 12Z, with what appears to be a negatively tilted shortwave swinging across the region at 00Z. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 NWS Quad Cities not really sold, don't even mention the NAM solutions in their afternoon AFD. Just hail potential Wednesday night and mainly a rainfall event for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Most of the DVN cwa looks to be locked into cold/northeast low-level flow on Thu as the warm front looks like it's gonna be more like a stationary front. Other than hailers the best shot at severe looks to be over MO and the southern 60% of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Day 3 introduces slight risk for IA/IL/MO with hatched area. Supercells with "all hazards" possible per disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Of course, right as they do that, the 06Z NAM (by far the strongest model supporting this solution) comes in with a less focused, strung out surface low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Of course, right as they do that, the 06Z NAM (by far the strongest model supporting this solution) comes in with a less focused, strung out surface low. Never been a big fan of these kind of setups where the east/west front starts to crash southward during the warmest part of the day, as some models show. Seems like with the good setups the warm front will at least slowly advance northward during the daytime at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Never been a big fan of these kind of setups where the east/west front starts to crash southward during the warmest part of the day, as some models show. Seems like with the good setups the warm front will at least slowly advance northward during the daytime at least. Yup. Definitely would rather see the low intensifying with the mass response pulling the warm front northward or at least stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 12Z 3K doesn't have the WF getting much north of the IA/MO line, and rakes MO with supercells. Unfortunately that'd be out of range for me for a work-night chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 5 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Never been a big fan of these kind of setups where the east/west front starts to crash southward during the warmest part of the day, as some models show. Seems like with the good setups the warm front will at least slowly advance northward during the daytime at least. Yeah, seems for the good ones at this time of year we are tracking the front northwards waiting for it to get hung up along I-80, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yeah, seems for the good ones at this time of year we are tracking the front northwards waiting for it to get hung up along I-80, lol Although, this year we've already had multiple events along/north of the IL-WI line starting in frickin' early February. It would be ironic if we started having issues with that now as we finally get into mid-March, on Daylight Time and close to the equinox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Thursday will depend highly on the degree of cyclonic curvature within the mid/upper level flow. Most guidance is not in agreement with the 12z NAM/NAM 3 km idea of having a substantial shortwave eject ENE and induce stronger surface cyclogenesis and LLJ response. The 18z NAM also backed off on that idea. Moisture looks like a non issue and I don't see much concern for a washout especially further south, but the wind fields will be strongly affected by how amplified that feature is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 With KLSX's radar down for updates still not a great time for potential severe in their northern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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