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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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Regarding today across IA/IL/WI...

Not too surprising, but the four-some of models that were most enthused with today have been too high with dew points across the target area.

The HRRR, RAP, FV3, and RRFS had been consistently advertising a solid area of low-mid 50's dew points developing across the target area. However, in reality dew points are running several degrees behind those projections, only in the mid-upper 40's as of 2PM.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Regarding today across IA/IL/WI...

Not too surprising, but the four-some of models that were most enthused with today have been too high with dew points across the target area.

The HRRR, RAP, FV3, and RRFS had been consistently advertising a solid area of low-mid 50's dew points developing across the target area. However, in reality dew points are running several degrees behind those projections, only in the mid-upper 40's as of 2PM.

Not too surprising unfortunately, although SPC has an MD out.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0113.html

Shame, really because this is a nice setup otherwise.

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8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Isn't there definitely an unwarned nader or potential for one on that cell north of Peoria

 

 

Screenshot_20240208-162030.jpg

It's high based from all reports from those on it.

Nearby OBS is 60/47, so makes sense.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Obviously there has been some severe, but if dew points had gotten as high as the outlier guidance had show, things would have been off to the races today.

This would have been great if it was a month later.

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
535 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

WIC025-045-105-090015-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240209T0015Z/
Green WI-Rock WI-Dane WI-
535 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN GREEN...NORTHWESTERN ROCK AND SOUTHEASTERN DANE
COUNTIES...

At 534 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Albany, or near
Evansville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Stoughton, Oregon, Evansville, Brooklyn, Albany, Magnolia, Dayton,
Attica, and Cooksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 8953 4277 8958 4293 8941 4293 8910
      4272 8918 4265 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 233DEG 36KT 4275 8942

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
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That escalated quickly 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2024

The National Weather Service in Milwaukee/Sullivan has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Rock County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southeastern Dane County in south central Wisconsin...
  Southwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Wisconsin...

* Until 630 PM CST.

* At 549 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Evansville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Whitewater, Stoughton, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Lake Mills,
  Milton, Edgerton, Evansville, Johnson Creek, Cambridge, Lake
  Ripley, Lake Koshkonong, Fulton, Albion, Hebron, Utica, Rockdale,
  Busseyville, Cooksville, and Indianford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4272 8927 4287 8936 4305 8902 4309 8874
      4285 8868 4284 8877 4283 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 237DEG 37KT 4279 8922

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
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Can see the debris fallout on this scan. Go figure, this 2% day with dewpoints barely (if even) touching 50 will not only go down as the first February :twister: in Wisconsin history, but one most destructive/noteworthy in south-central Wisconsin in quite some time. Missed my parents just to the southeast, similar to the Dane Co. one from 3/31/23 which I called them about as I was on my way home from my Keota chase.

MKX_0003.png

MKX_0003_CC.png

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Unconfirmed reports of about 20 homes damaged.

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Seen a couple videos of the Evansville-Edgerton tornado. Actually looked smaller than I was expecting based on the size/depth of the CC drop. Must have been small but fairly strong, and hit a lot of stuff. :(

 

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The tornado in Wisconsin came very close to Vince Waelti's house where his family was at.  Missed his house by likely less than a mile.  He was chasing this storm and was on this tornado when he realized that this tornado was going to track towards his house.

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