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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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Just now, BxEngine said:

Everyone should probably re-read the first 30 or so pages of this thread. Some can learn….others should consider a large fork for their helping of humble pie. Of course the ones who need that the most will just reappear as if nothing happened….but maybe it will inspire some. 

Luck is luck brother

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6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Luck is luck brother

Jeff Beradelli used to have great reviews of what went right and what went wrong with the different modeling and forecasts, after a snowstorm.  That would be much easier than reading through all the clutter (including mine).  

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39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes but most of us up here got 10"-15"

Sort of surprising at this went farther south and somewhat east?  Of course, Union County in NJ got into a "snow hole" and never really recovered.  Sun started trying to come out by about 8:45 AM.

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38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It will always be more up there because no one lives there.

We could have gotten more down here if it was colder.

You're a little silly sometimes lol.

It will always be more up there because no one lives up there? lol

Do you mean it's colder there because "no one lives up there?"

I mean there's two things wrong with this statement, can you figure out what those two things are?

 

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 11:30 am, it's 33F and snowing moderately with 5.4" OTG, so only 0.4" the last hour, as rates just haven't been great, missing out on the best bands for the last 3 hours; we had 4.0" at 8:30 am, so only 1.5" the last 3 hours while the good bands were giving people 1-2" per hour (we got 1.75"/hr  before 8:30 am). Oh well.  One last band to go through in the next 30 min or so and if we're lucky we'll get to 6", but not sure, although as I'm typing this the snow has gone to almost heavy for the first time in hours, so maybe.  

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. 

Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2".

This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks.

And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

AaNdH5q.png

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16 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Everyone should probably re-read the first 30 or so pages of this thread. Some can learn….others should consider a large fork for their helping of humble pie. Of course the ones who need that the most will just reappear as if nothing happened….but maybe it will inspire some. 

I refuse to re-live that nightmare.

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7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Jeff Beradelli used to have great reviews of what went right and what went wrong with the different modeling and forecasts, after a snowstorm.  That would be much easier than reading through all the clutter (including mine).  

One thing everyone should always remember is that the snow to liquid ratio is usually 10:1, in other words, the typical variability of a rainstorm is magnified 10x in a typical snowstorm.  So a difference between half an inch of rain and a full inch of rain becomes the difference between 5 inches of snow and 10 inches of snow.  Which is why when people hear or see a forecast for 5-10 inches of snow they shouldn't assume they'll get 10 inches.  It could just as easily be 5 inches.

 

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4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. 

Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2".

This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks.

And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

AaNdH5q.png

6 is a pretty good storm for us, we were progged for 4-8, so there we are. Was hoping for a bit more but it's fine. Was a little tough driving down route 1 this morning to Edison, and worse coming home, but things are fine now. More like a March storm IMO.

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6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. 

Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2".

This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks.

And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

AaNdH5q.png

I saw a 6.1 report from metuchen so right in line

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Thinking the measurement was probably a little late at Central Park so there was probably closer to 4” before melting and settling.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
114 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Central Park            40.78N 73.97W
02/13/2024  M3.2 inch        New York (ManhattanNY   Official NWS Obs
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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Thinking the measurement was probably a little late at Central Park so there was probably closer to 4” before melting and settling.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
114 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Central Park            40.78N 73.97W
02/13/2024  M3.2 inch        New York (ManhattanNY   Official NWS Obs

Thats sad. Wish they took it more seriously.

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