LVblizzard Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Kuchera maps are more accurate for this event since they take lower ratios into account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It's amazing how the euro and gfs collapses the column big time once the storm wraps up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 FWIW, probably not a lot, ICON looked a little better at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how the euro and gfs collapses the column big time once the storm wraps up That's what we all need if it were to occur that way-heavy rates would do the trick for just about everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Interesting that the ensembles of the gfs and Euro are southeast of op runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: 11/1-2/9: 2.3 inches of snow, total Not everyone who lives south of 84 reside in NYC but continue living insufferably. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Lee Goldberg snowmap coming up in 10 minutes. I'm going with what he says, dude rarely misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Looks like 3-6" type event for Metro north of Rt.78 or soI hope my Morris County log cabin has enough firewood to make it through the storm.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 As per the last several GFS runs, for the 18Z GFS, verbatim, we're looking at 90% of the 7-8" (what falls at 10:1) of 95 corridor snow falling from 4 am to 10 am for >1"/hour rates at slightly above 32F, but at those intensities, I would expect easy accumulation and we might even be pleasantly surprised with better than Kuchera ratios (which look to be in the 0.7-0.8 range), once accumulation gets going (have seen this before with high intensity systems with marginal surface temps, but cold columns with good crystal growth in the DGZ). Soundings do look like a brief (hopefully) period of sleet after the changeover. If intensity is lower or we get an extended warm nose or any number of other things, accumulation will be much harder, but as modeled, I think we'd get decent accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, David-LI said: Lee Goldberg snowmap coming up in 10 minutes. I'm going with what he says, dude rarely misses. here it is...not too different from the NBM (slightly less snowy). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: 11/1-2/9: 2.3 inches of snow, total NYC has truly been screwed. I live just 25 miles SW of midtown and we have 7.3" this winter, which is weak, but not atrocious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: here it is...not too different from the NBM (slightly less snowy). I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times. I think that's a great first call. I doubt I see any snow down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times. Well, to be fair, for the last 2+ years most winter storms have underperformed vs. what forecasts predicted, some terribly so, so people get gunshy and would rather predict 2-4" and then have to bump that up to 4-8" early in a storm than to have to have a 4-8" storm fizzle down to 1-2". I get it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times. Lee did mention it’s subject to change during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I must say, AccuWeather has been spot on this winter with the amount of snow that we have gotten here in Westchester. They are calling for 1 inch of snow on Tuesday. Take that for what it’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z euro bumped south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I must say, AccuWeather has been spot on this winter with the amount of snow that we have gotten here in Westchester. They are calling for 1 inch of snow on Tuesday. Take that for what it’s worth. I'll have to agree. They have been good with snowfall amounts for my area this year. They're calling for 3-6" here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Allsnow said: 18z euro bumped south Last frame until the eps at 8pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times. It's better to put out the worst case forecast 3.5 days out? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 can see how the weaker backside energy leads to the vort maintaining latitude. also leads to lower heights downstream in SE canada 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can see how the weaker backside energy leads to the vort maintaining latitude. also leads to lower heights downstream in SE canada Euro is colder 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 @snowman19 i agree. describing complex synoptic evolutions also amuses me 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can see how the weaker backside energy leads to the vort maintaining latitude. also leads to lower heights downstream in SE canada What's the surface look like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Stop being a douche to people. TIA! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: What's the surface look like? Edit nvm I see it above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 35 minutes ago, Rjay said: Stop being a douche to people. TIA! Snowman19 lovely self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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