SBUWX23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You know this is why I prefer vertically stacked lows that move very slowly or even loop, because the 700/850 lows are right where the surface low is. Less chance of mixing or changing over. vertically stacked lows are decaying and do not produce the same dynamics. you want the mid level loves to pass to your south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, romba said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Borrowed from the New England thread, Sign me up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 53 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night Bite your tongue I'm good with it being 287 and you should be too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night There needs to be an anti snow emoji reserved just for you. And please change your username to "rainman19" 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: There needs to be an anti snow emoji reserved just for you. And please change your username to "rainman19" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night How many forums do you troll ? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: How many forums do you troll ? That’s not a troll 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night Isn't this the op run which was on the northern end vs the other ensembles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night and the sun will go nova in five billion years . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. Reminds me of Jan 2008 when we were relying on dynamics and we didn't even have a snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfreak09 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. abrasive is one way to put it lol.. but if folks want to have a pipe dream or not- let them have it... here to learn yes.. but there is a way to do it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Upton says little or no accumulation and there are no other snowstorms in sight - Walt was right not to start a thread for this......... Thats what they think . Who knows if they will be right. They can be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. It’s like having a coworker who knows how to do their job but can’t help themselves reminding you of what an idiot you are at yours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Reminds me of Jan 2008 when we were relying on dynamics and we didn't even have a snowflake. Even last sunday inland had the same issue-they got an hour of white rain and that was that. Hope this works out but I can see it bumping north and raining for most here. Well N and W different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 For those of you that can just refresh this thread all day long and see every post instantly, congrats, I guess. The mods often don’t have time to just sit here and babysit, keep that in mind. Cut out the personal attacks and don’t forget there’s a banter thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what is your forecast ? white rain heavy at times in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Eps south of op Look at where the 32/540 line is depicted. That’s a slush fest at best for the city and coast. I would expect a car/grass topper. 50 miles inland and above 1000’ is looking great for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Look at where the 32/540 line is depicted. That’s a slush fest at best for the city and coast. I would expect a car/grass topper. 50 miles inland and above 1000’ is looking great for this one. Yeah as I said main problem here is once again its somewhat too early at the start of a pattern flip...you'd prefer the storm to happen 3-4 days later and we probably do see something next week but this is marginal even if it does take a track around the EPS average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: this can still wind up being rain to albany Meh. Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so. I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Meh. Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so. I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this in this winter you never know...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: in this winter you never know...LOL Even Rayo who I think is a tad too far north with this has the accumulating snow with this down to NE NJ/NYC/N LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night On 1/4/2024 at 1:35 AM, snowman19 said: Becoming more confident that this is going to be an I-84 north event. Expect further corrections NW on tomorrow’s guidance. IMO there will be little if any snow with this until you get 40+ miles northwest of the city. The airmass is marginal as all heck. Also think there is going to be major midlevel warm nose issues in the metro area….watch the mesos in the last 24 hours, some areas may not even see snow and start as sleet. 10:1 snow maps are going to be laughably inaccurate Time is a flat circle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 18Z NAM....book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: Time is a flat circle 11/1-2/9: 2.3 inches of snow, total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Looks like 3-6" type event for Metro north of Rt.78 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Thanks MJO - good run for PHL-NYC but still little room for north swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mattinpa said: Thanks MJO - good run for PHL-NYC but still little room for north swings. Some of this is sleet so maybe 3-6 here. The ensembles have been south of the op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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