Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
 Share

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You know this is why I prefer vertically stacked lows that move very slowly or even loop, because the 700/850 lows are right where the surface low is.  Less chance of mixing or changing over.

vertically stacked lows are decaying and do not produce the same dynamics. you want the mid level loves to pass to your south. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. 

Reminds me of Jan 2008 when we were relying on dynamics and we didn't even have a snowflake. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. 

abrasive is one way to put it lol.. but if folks want to have a pipe dream or not- let them have it...   here to learn yes.. but there is a way to do it...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton says little or no accumulation and there are no other snowstorms in sight - Walt was right not to start a thread for this.........

Thats what they think . Who knows if they will be right. They can be wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He has an abrasive way of coming across but when this winter has he been wrong? If the confluence can’t press this south it will keep trending the wrong way. An energetic southern wave will pump the SE ridge and try to cut. The airmass out front is March-like. As usual there isn’t much/any help out west to force a better track. So we’re relying on confluence to pull a miracle. 

It’s like having a coworker who knows how to do their job but can’t help themselves reminding you of what an idiot you are at yours.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Reminds me of Jan 2008 when we were relying on dynamics and we didn't even have a snowflake. 

Even last sunday  inland had the same issue-they got an hour of white rain and that was that.   Hope this works out but I can see it bumping north and raining for most here.  Well N and W different story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Look at where the 32/540 line is depicted. That’s a slush fest at best for the city and coast. I would expect a car/grass topper. 50 miles inland and above 1000’ is looking great for this one. 

 

Yeah as I said main problem here is once again its somewhat too early at the start of a pattern flip...you'd prefer the storm to happen 3-4 days later and we probably do see something next week but this is marginal even if it does take a track around the EPS average.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this can still wind up being rain to albany

Meh.  Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so.  I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Meh.  Not sure that is remotely possibly unless the confluence just vanished entirely, feels like maybe the northern limit on this is no snow south of 84 or so.  I'd be sort of mortified if somehow even places like POU/SWF got shutout by this

in this winter you never know...LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It will probably be rain up to I84 by 0z Saturday night 

 

On 1/4/2024 at 1:35 AM, snowman19 said:

Becoming more confident that this is going to be an I-84 north event. Expect further corrections NW on tomorrow’s guidance. IMO there will be little if any snow with this until you get 40+ miles northwest of the city. The airmass is marginal as all heck. Also think there is going to be major midlevel warm nose issues in the metro area….watch the mesos in the last 24 hours, some areas may not even see snow and start as sleet. 10:1 snow maps are going to be laughably inaccurate 

Time is a flat circle 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...