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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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Looks like NYC is about to go through some sort of dry slot soon (or probably just light snow, considering how much moisture is in this storm.) A pocket of sinking air between heavier returns (indicated by yellows) moving into Long Island, and dark green over north and central NJ. Light green over northeast NJ heading towards NYC, we'll see if that's where the preliminary dry slot sets up. 

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1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Radar exploding over Long Island 

Where the heaviest snow sets up, expect subsidence on both sides of that. LI looks like it's going to be crushed, but I am a bit worried about what that will mean for NE NJ and NYC. Wonder if the heavy stuff over LI will pivot back west as the low moves out. 

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Coming down at a decent clip here in the UES, streets slushy, avenues wet. I am a bit concerned about Manhattan getting stuck in between the deformation band over NNJ and the WCB goods pushing into Long Island. Mesoscale analysis does have me optimistic that subsidence shouldn't be too much of a problem however, as it really isn't consolidated over a pivoting band to our northwest.

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Right on cue some bands are infilling just over the Hudson in Jersey, so at this hour there doesn't appear to be a deformation mega band to the west that will have the city dealing with bright clouds and exhaust. There will be consolidation at some point with these bands as the fronto gets cranking, still question of where this will happen who will get the pivot point.

 

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Snow has picked up significantly in the last 5 or 10 minutes, particularly the size of the flakes. Big, silver dollar pillows falling and still not much wind yet. If it keeps up like this until mid-afternoon, we will easily hit predictions. 
 

First plow of the day just went by. 

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32 lt to mod snow about 2- 2.5 on the ground

0.54 LE in the bucKet.

 

Looks like another 3 - 4 hours to go and depending on coastal /enhanced banding getting this far west but 0.3 - 0.4 QPF more to fall.

 

should take totals to 3- 5 here.

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2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks like NYC is about to go through some sort of dry slot soon (or probably just light snow, considering how much moisture is in this storm.) A pocket of sinking air between heavier returns (indicated by yellows) moving into Long Island, and dark green over north and central NJ. Light green over northeast NJ heading towards NYC, we'll see if that's where the preliminary dry slot sets up. 

no this is not true. look at KDIX radar. there is a pivot south of the city. KOKX is missing some of the returns out that way.

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Just now, SBUWX23 said:

no this is not true. look at KDIX radar. there is a pivot south of the city. KOKX is missing some of the returns out that way.

What are you thinking for the rest of the storm? Looks like Long Island gonna clean up 

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Moderate here occasionally heavy, eyeballing around 2". I'm starting to think that NYC is going to get stuck in the subsidence zone between the heavy band on L.I. and north and west. We'll see

Certainly a possibility, would be comical and further proof that it's better to not be modeled as being in the bullseye prior to the start of a storm!

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