mikem81 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The EURO is too amped for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mikem81 said: The EURO is too amped for NYC It's a couple inches for the city. But it still got 3 days to come more north. Need stronger confluence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, mikem81 said: By tomorrow 12Z runs the LP will be over Long Island. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The EURO is too amped for NYC Gee whiz. Models went too suppressed at day 4-5 with another storm? No strong confluence=another NYC washout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: By tomorrow 12Z runs the LP will be over Long Island. Why do I waste my time losing sleep over models when they keep doing the same crap over and over again ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, jm1220 said: Gee whiz. Models went too suppressed at day 4-5 with another storm? No strong confluence=another NYC washout. Washout ? Nothing points to that right now. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: Washout ? Nothing points to that right now. all you need is a slight shift north and it is 95 percent rain for the coast. Also its not gonna stick with temps above freezing during daytime Tuesday. Chances are very slim at the coast. Get out, enjoy life. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The EURO is too amped for NYC Quite a bit warmer than what the 0z run showed. Obviously we have a slight chance that this could work out for areas near the coast since it's still early, but right now this is looking like an event for areas to the north and west. The airmass is lousy and we're really gonna need a dynamic solution for it to give us decent accumulations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do I waste my time losing sleep over models when they keep doing the same crap over and over again ? How long have you been at this? 20 yrs? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do I waste my time losing sleep over models when they keep doing the same crap over and over again ? Told ya man. Don't do it lol. It was cool to follow but I never thought this was our storm. Now it doesn't even look like no pattern change. Bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: How long have you been at this? 20 yrs? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result... 24 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Told ya man. Don't do it lol. It was cool to follow but I never thought this was our storm. Now it doesn't even look like no pattern change. Bring on spring Na man spring is boring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do I waste my time losing sleep over models when they keep doing the same crap over and over again ? Live by the models, die by the models. One might ask themselves, is this model correct? WHERE is the even remotely marginally cold air coming from? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: Na man spring is boring You like this better? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Dark Star said: Live by the models, die by the models. One might ask themselves, is this model correct? WHERE is the even remotely marginally cold air coming from? all about the buzzwords---"the storm will create its own cold air" "Dynamics" It's 30 degrees at Hunter Mtn, that will be pulled south....yada yada yada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: You like this better? Lol I prefer cold and snow but this is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: I prefer cold and snow but this is fine. I meant chasing fantasy snow storms and getting your heart ripped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 this can still wind up being rain to albany 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I prefer cold and snow but this is fine. This is another utter trash what can go wrong will “winter”. We accept it and move on. At least today turned out nice and temp around 50. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Northof78 said: EURO better, stronger storm, colder solution Some of the posters in here are living and dying with clown maps. If anything the 12Z is an improvement over 00z. Euro didn’t make any north shift, it’s more amped and the precip field is more expansive. What’s the problem? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: Some of the posters in here are living and dying with clown maps. If anything the 12Z is an improvement over 00z. Euro didn’t make any north shift, it’s more amped and the precip field is more expansive. What’s the problem? For many in the NYC metro, its a heavily mixing scenario. Looking deeper into the storm configuration, the confluence appears to pressing less over the past few runs, which is what leads to less snow and more mixing for the area. Without significant high pressure press from southeast Canada (where we would see our confluence pushing down), then this is only the beginning of the north trend, not the end of it. And if it's only the beginning... then we know what happens next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Borrowed from the New England thread, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Eps south of op 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Na man spring is boring cool, let's have an early summer then wait, did I say cool.... I meant HOT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS holds steady... OP was firmly on the northern end of the envelope 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 29 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I meant chasing fantasy snow storms and getting your heart ripped out. I guess it depends. For some people seeing a simulation of snow on a map is almost as good as the real thing, so when it doesn't happen it doesn't matter because in their minds they've already received the high they get from tracking it. So in a way it's already happened for them. And who knows, maybe in an alternate earth in another universe it actually did happen.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 You also want to look at the mid level low tracks not just the surface, if anything you especially want to look at the mid level lows. If the 700/850 lows are over or north of you, you’ll very likely mix or dry slot quickly. For good snow you want to be north of those. For the surface as we all know the airmass heading into this is lousy at best, so we need heavy thumping snow to start the accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You also want to look at the mid level low tracks not just the surface, if anything you especially want to look at the mid level lows. If the 700/850 lows are over or north of you, you’ll very likely mix or dry slot quickly. For good snow you want to be north of those. For the surface as we all know the airmass heading into this is lousy at best, so we need heavy thumping snow to start the accumulations. You know this is why I prefer vertically stacked lows that move very slowly or even loop, because the 700/850 lows are right where the surface low is. Less chance of mixing or changing over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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