cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know they are thinking. My point and click still has 7 to 13 in mid Westchester. Warning was lowered to 6. We won’t touch either. I suspect the update at like 3 am, waiting until the 0z suite rolls in to confirm everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Well folks, I just looked at all the major recent models at 0Z and 18Z (that haven't run 0Z yet) and apart from the GFS (not counting the CMC or UK which are too "old" now), the consensus is growing pretty strong for a colder storm with less intense snow (and less rain to start) putting down maybe 6-9" of 10:1 snow (of which maybe 5-7" actually accumulates at maybe 8:1 ratio) with 32-33F temps during the 4 am to 10 am timeframe where 90% falls (still a respectable 1" per hour of falling snow) and this seems to be the case for the whole 95 corridor from Trenton (and maybe even SW to Philly) to SE CT and 30-40 miles NW of that line and 30-40 miles SE of that line. Sure some folks who thought they were going to get smoked are likely not and some who thought they were out of it (SE of 95 especially) will do well and at least NYC metro looks to do decently (on grass at least), which is nice given how long it's been for them. And who knows, maybe some of us will get a few inches more than expected with some better rates than are being forecast right now. That's all a preface to say that if you had told me a week ago or even 2 days ago that this event might deliver 5-7" of snow, I'd have been ecstatic. Sure getting a monster storm over a foot would be awesome, but this is way better for snow lovers than an inch of sloppy slush on only grass many of us were looking at. I'm going to go out and walk around in this at least every 30 minutes and measure and hope I can get to my prediction of 7.2" for my house made last night, but considering my first guess was 2" two days ago, I'm pretty sure I'll be smiling on my JebWalks around the neighborhood. Pretty sure I'll even make a snowman with this stuff and a snow angel or two. Enjoy it folks and then let's hope a few of these other threats over the next 10 days deliver at least a few inches and maybe one blows up. It's been a pleasure tracking with everyone and I hope at least most of you get the snow you hoped for (or some of it). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: My point and click still has 7 to 13 in mid Westchester. Warning was lowered to 6. We won’t touch either. I suspect the update at like 3 am, waiting until the 0z suite rolls in to confirm everything. They updated the forecast late this afternoon from 7-13 to 4-8 but nearly every piece of guidance shows barely anything. I think it's pretty obvious where this is going. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we got only a dusting. They also didn't update the briefing from 4:30am that shows Poughkeepsie area getting 8-12. It's just strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know what they are thinking. Im 1 mile N of 84 and im only expecting 1-2" the most 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 RGEM still decent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 new HREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, jm1220 said: RGEM still decent. more than decent, no? nice to see that it held. very consistent 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: RGEM still decent. Did it bump north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sterno2510 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Rain has started in New Brunswick - Temp 41 - DP 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Did it bump north a bit Didn't really change. I'm just comparing vs the recent HRRR trends, and that's not bad either, maybe bumped back N a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10pm 42/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: more than decent, no? nice to see that it held. very consistent Seemed like maybe a little lousier dynamics. Anyway we'll see what happens. Still excited for this along I-80-NYC-LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: new HREF Now this would be great if it verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 02z HRR bumped north a bit and has better rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 HREF at 2/13 13z: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Radar is juiced up down in Kentucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Craig Allen On-Air 21m · Me tonight. Holding with 3-6 and a west/east band about 25 miles wide of possibly an additional 2-4". Quick glance at night data shows lowering amounts due to reasons mentioned earlier throughout the day. Not much more I can do now except hope I know what I'm talking about, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: HREF at 2/13 13z: Would be amazing to see if this verifies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: HREF at 2/13 13z: Trenton to Philly should be excited too. Good evolution for them. Maybe Baltimore? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Trenton to Philly should be excited too. Good evolution for them. Maybe Baltimore? Temps will be a issue for phl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Rgem looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Rgem looked good Just an FYI instead of the one liners maybe show a map or something. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1757243488364560530?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Just an FYI instead of the one liners maybe show a map or something. Thanks "My wife and I were going to go out for dinner but the doorman said the weather is fit for neither man nor beast. So we both stayed home." - Henny Youngman. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Temps will be a issue for phl Philly might still squeeze out an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1757243488364560530?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw Respect him but that's at 12z. Lift goes up after that over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Philly might still squeeze out an inch or two. Would definitely still be worth interest there. Trenton area especially. But further south also means weaker dynamics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Respect him but that's at 12z. Lift goes up after that over the city Here is an example on latest hrrr at 14z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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