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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Often time colder comes with flatter, verbatim still a nice 3-6 inch event but wonder how much sticks if there isn't intense rates.

Nam looks like it does give decent rates not as heavy as previous runs but it’s not light snow 

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I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).

The mid Atlantic (Maryland / DC area in particular) is seeing their third storm of the year trend in their direction inside of 24 hours. Insane.
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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Its been a long time since 12 hours before an event I have told someone NYC or LI is the best spot to be

Still feeling confident? I think NYC has more wiggle room then northern posters I still wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a tick north 

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:


The mid Atlantic (Maryland / DC area in particular) is seeing their third storm of the year trend in their direction inside of 24 hours. Insane.

I'm definitely interested for Philly to Trenton and west on the Penn Turnpike to Harrisburg. DC/Baltimore probably need more help than possible this late.

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1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said:

Be precise, when you say much weaker. I am about to stop looking at the freaking models with this ping-pong back-and-forth crap


.

There's definitely a weaker trend on the models so far but still good for a significant event around the city. I-84 corridor is sweating though. South also means weaker dynamics. 

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4-8" looks good for most (obviously less up by 84 and just north), again with the pavement caveat in urban areas and NYC.  No need to fight the southerly trend this late.  The returns in Tennessee weren't great this afternoon and think the trend south is a response to that.

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4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

4-8" looks good for most (obviously less up by 84 and just north), again with the pavement caveat in urban areas and NYC.  No need to fight the southerly trend this late.  The returns in Tennessee weren't great this afternoon and think the trend south is a response to that.

IT looks juicy now-but it's clearly hitting a brick wall in N KY.    So it will be ENE from there.

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So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know what they are thinking. 

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