donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s not done…congrats NNE. The Good news is that the dry nonsense was oversold for after this week and the north trend isn’t going anywhere The ECMWF weeklies are wet from February 26-March 11. The very strongly negative SOI (lowest daily value since May 24, 2023) suggests an active subtropical jet within two weeks or so. So, there may be potential during that period, especially the first half where it looks to be colder than the second half. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Hence why it’s way too early to spike any footballs on this one. If anyone’s looking “golden” right now it’s probably the I-84 corridor which all the probability maps show (I’d look at those maps way before any 10-1 snow map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Well, the GFS has moved the southern extent of 6"+ snow (at 10:1 ratios - maybe not a good assumption) north about 75 miles since 0Z, such that the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC is now much closer to the "it gonna rain" line vs. 6Z and 0Z last night. However, If folks want to know what a trend looks like, I give you the CMC, lol, as it's come hundreds of miles south over the last 36 hours. But at the end of the day both the 12Z GFS and CMC are at least much closer to each other than they've been, so there's that. weird to say the least..........these models are not receiving the same data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, NEG NAO said: weird to say the least.......... EURO will be the tie breaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How do you know it's not done ? There is so much north this can go. Why are people dismissing this on this forum ? We've had 2 inches of snow on the season, there has been 8 days of cold the whole season and there's limited cold for this event....that's why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: We've had 2 inches of snow on the season, there has been 8 days of cold the whole season and there's limited cold for this event....that's why Its over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO will be the tie breaker. I always say lean Euro in an El Nino winter if you have major southern stream involvement but in this storm the flow is pretty fast and there are multiple interference factors that could come out of Canada so in reality we might look back in 4 days and find that the GFS or CMC ended up more accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Its over For urban areas it likely is. Hard to see how it accumulates on pavement in the city with temps 34 or so and a daytime event. Would have to come down very heavy to overcome that. N and W different story with some elevation/colder air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 i can guarantee you the CMC will not be correct 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We've had 2 inches of snow on the season, there has been 8 days of cold the whole season and there's limited cold for this event....that's why To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, EastonSN+ said: To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol I'm at 11 for the last 2 years....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The other rule now is whatever the UKIE Does the EC does the reverse I swear its like a 80% correlation...so if the UKIE ends up over Cape Cod the Euro will be a whiff, used to be automatic in tandem but rarely the case last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: weird to say the least..........these models are not receiving the same data Technically, the GFS uses a different initialization scheme from the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET. The latter three use the 4dVAR scheme, which is the leading one. Initialization differences aside, there could be other reasons why the different models handle things differently. If, for example, the GGEM and ECMWF are diverging, other issues could be involved. Overall, all the models are still searching for the solution and it may take another day or so for there to be good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Differences between 6Z and 12Z GFS runs aren't that much and could be model noise four days out. Bigger change is at 500 mb which doesn't look worse to my untrained eyes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Metasequoia said: The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models. Dynamics 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, snobal said: i can guarantee you the CMC will not be correct I don't think any model is correct with the precip type and amounts at this point for obvious reasons total disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: The biggest red flag (for those in the city and south) is that the freezing line is north of the city for most of the models. I said my main concern for sure is 700mb is not that cold and system is fast so it really needs to be dynamically induced or you'd probably be less snowy than even the Op GFS snow maps depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Dynamics This is usually a red flag because this can be very thread the needle when your airmass is marginal at best. Dynamics can only do so much. Case in point a few weeks back when even the interior struggled to get any snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Technically, the GFS uses a different initialization scheme from the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET. The latter three use the 4dVAR scheme, which is the leading one. Initialization differences aside, there could be other reasons why the different models handle things differently. If, for example, the GGEM and ECMWF are diverging, other issues could be involved. Overall, all the models are still searching for the solution and it may take another day or so for there to be good consensus. the Canadian solution at 12Z is the weirdest one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: This is usually a red flag because this can be very thread the needle when your airmass is marginal at best. Dynamics can only do so much. Case in point a few weeks back when even the interior struggled to get any snow. shows you how bad this winter has been if you like cold and snow with marginal airmasses during historic prime time in February - this is more like a late March - Early April scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: shows you how bad this winter has been if you like cold and snow with marginal airmasses during historic prime time in February - this is more like a late March - Early April scenario Yep-can't buy a cold airmass this year except for a week in January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I said my main concern for sure is 700mb is not that cold and system is fast so it really needs to be dynamically induced or you'd probably be less snowy than even the Op GFS snow maps depicted Remind me, you like to see 700mb at least at -10? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 52 minutes ago, mikem81 said: no. Wayyyy too close to the coast. Your right. Its 39.95 lat, 70.53 long. Miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is not going to trend north sorry. I think we'll see a significant snow event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: This is not going to trend north sorry. I think we'll see a significant snow event. this is going to be received with no pushback at all on this subforum lol 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is not going to trend north sorry. I think we'll see a significant snow event. It might but not too far north. Accumulating snow is definitely on the table. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It might but not too far north. Accumulating snow is definitely on the table. Unless the Euro does something unforeseen in a few minutes, I think the GFS and EURO are starting to hone in on a solution. CMC and UKIE seems lost to me at the moment, but slowly starting to join the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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