cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Maybe the seasonal trend will kick this thing back north. Oh wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Haha. Idk 3-6 is a good forecast for NYC Yeah, I think probably 3-6” on the grass in Central Park with less on NYC pavement since temps above freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS is an absolute crushing from about dawn through noon. Wow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Temp down to 37 DP dropped to 29. Definitely did not get as warm as it was supposed to today. Yup. I'm down to 39 dp 27. may Be all snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Truthfully you probably don't want to see mostly snow down to near ACY like the RAP is showing if you want big snows NYC area. This will have a pretty narrow axis of heaviest snow I think. People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So much bump material for tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Long Island Sound convergence potential, will enhance rates over n metro NYC and into ne NJ, given rapid intensification over Atlantic, expect very strong wind gusts to develop in that zone also. Expected obs in zone would be S+ 31/30 0632G47. Near blizzard conditions could develop locally. Possible TSW also. Thinking around 4-6" JFK, 5-7" NYC, 8-10" LGA and EWR, 7-9" ISP and 10-12" sw CT. Would double expected snow (to 3-6) in central NJ, arctic front will be past ACY by 12z. Too bad it's so fast, could be a 20" type of event at a slower pace. Track is now locking into a perfect hit. Sharp n cutoff may be overdone, these storms often find a way to throw a bit of extra moisture north, but axis of heaviest snowfalls likely to be near e/c PA to n/c NJ to n shore of LI Sound. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Enjoy the snow guys, they’re still forecasting basically all rain to me so I’m going to nope out instead of letting myself ride this into disappointment. So happy this is breaking right for the city at least! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. I like when names I don’t recognize pop up prior to a storm.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I think probably 3-6” on the grass in Central Park with less on NYC pavement since temps above freezing. Would be great to get CPK to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36/29 now. Btw are we using this thread for OBS as well? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. I'm not even looking at the kuchie maps. Snow depth for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I think probably 3-6” on the grass in Central Park with less on NYC pavement since temps above freezing. It doesn't matter if it's above freezing to snow. The snow will stick if it comes down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, TJW014 said: I'm not even looking at the kuchie maps. Snow depth for me. No one uses snow depth maps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, North and West said: I like when names I don’t recognize pop up prior to a storm. . Not only that, but sometimes names will pop up that have 15,000 posts and I wonder how did I never see this handle before? Then I think maybe it's me who's 'popping up' since I'm only here in earnest when it snows and maybe they're here year round. Unless posters change names, if that's a thing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 41 minutes ago, nycsnow said: I can see Long Island as a whole doing good as storm blows up more… latest HRR shows that as it engulfs the whole island with a heavy band at hour 18 I would agree with this. The key -IMO- is the phase. If it is cleaner and the storm explodes, then we have a game on system with a substantial hit for the Tri-State. IF it develops a bit late, then C/E LI have a moderate to significant hit and the rest of the Tri-State is a left behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 hours ago, TJW014 said: HRRR ever so slightly cooler, and inching south Wow, any further trends south could be hardly anything for NYC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 34 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS is an absolute crushing from about dawn through noon. Wow. Funny how it’s showing rain on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Dark Star said: Wow, any further trends south could be hardly anything for NYC? the hrrr has basically stopped trending south and maybe even inched the north edge up a bit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thinking @forkyfork is correct with trend leveling off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, uofmiami said: He overthinks his forecasts to his detriment imo. So he’s constantly changing it. Bingo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 26 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. This is wrong. Intensity is the key. At >1" per hour, snow will accumulate in April at midday at 35F, so 33-34F in the morning in February won't be an issue - if we get that intensity, which is more than enough to overcome the melting rate. Ratios more likely to be in the 7-9:1 range unless you're talking about areas where mixing is occurring in the column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 FWIW GEFS mean about 9-10 for NYC haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Recon is sampling along the east coast as we speak. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You start to believe that the dynamics are legit when Upton mentions thunder in their forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Whos gonna post the GEFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I would agree with this. The key -IMO- is the phase. If it is cleaner and the storm explodes, then we have a game on system with a substantial hit for the Tri-State. IF it develops a bit late, then C/E LI have a moderate to significant hit and the rest of the Tri-State is a left behind. If the GFS is right and the mid level lows/banding go to town as it heads east off NJ, it'll be an insane few hours. Too bad there's nothing to slow the storm down but I'm liking this more and more. Glad to have been proven wrong on the N trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Recon is sampling along the east coast as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, WeatherX said: . We are in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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