BoulderWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, North and West said: You know what's great about this? We truly never actually know. That's part of the fun. People think they know, but they don't. We have good guidance but we can't nail it down. It was said in jest but rarely does the bullseye work out. I’d be thrilled with half of the 7-10 they’re predicting. Especially if it was towards the top end (5) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Indeed, I will say this is my first time tracking a storm in real time on this forum. I've been a lurker on here since Spring 2022, but there wasn't enough of a winter threat to track in real time (at least for my area), and it's been pretty fun to track this for the past 4-5 days with all of you. I've lurked on some other weather forum sites (not part of AmericanWx) as well, but thankfully, this site seems to be the most informative one in times like this (without endless hypecast on the other forum), and probably the most accurate site overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: It was said in jest but rarely does the bullseye work out. I’d be thrilled with half of the 7-10 they’re predicting. Especially if it was towards the top end (5) Oh I know. Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Of course I would like it to bullseye us, but I'm also enough of an adult to be like, it'd be nice to have a moderate snowstorm and not have to deal with insane amounts of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like Monmouth in a WWA now, still nothing for Ocean. 2-4. If Monmouth gets 2-4 I can’t see northern ocean getting nothing. We’ll see what happens for those of us at the southern extent of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 When should Upton put up a warning or a WAA for the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Where is Snowman19? We need his "this will end up north" posts now, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Was missing to the north now the south lol. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 After being missed to the north and to the south this year I hope for a Long Island special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 18z RGEM largely held serve from the 12z cycle with perhaps a tick south. Perhaps the guidance will be stabilizing in the next cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 warning just issued for New York City for 4-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 latest 20Z RAP at 10:1 ratio....heaviest snows remain through CNJ. NY state basically a complete miss at this point 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest 18Z ICON holds heaviest snowfall axis to the north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter Storm Warning NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NYC might be in a perfect spot because inevitably with these dynamic systems with banding it tends to be 20-30 mi northwest of what many models show, if we keep seeing a slight south movement that could put them in the best area 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Latest 18Z RDPS keeps heaviest snowfall right over NNJ/NYC Metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: latest 20Z RAP at 10:1 ratio....heaviest snows remain through CNJ. NY state basically a complete miss at this point Still 8-12 nyc metro Long Island westchester 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Don't be surprised when the 00z runs end up even further South. Most school districts around here have already called closings for tomorrow. I understand what the forecast was showing but there was no need to pull the trigger this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 RGEM basically jackpots NYC. Definitely less amplified than yesterday but don't think anyone would complain about 6+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Upton going with 10” out here. Just gassed up the snowblower. LFG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Upton going with 10” out here. Just gassed up the snowblower. LFG I'd be surprised if anyone hits 10 inches at this point but if anyone does it would probably be the north shore of Suffolk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Where is Snowman19? We need his "this will end up north" posts now, lol. Now he seems to be indicating this will miss NYC to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Quick mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 999 SLP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't be surprised when the 00z runs end up even further South. Most school districts around here have already called closings for tomorrow. I understand what the forecast was showing but there was no need to pull the trigger this early. In all fairness the last school closing the forecast was 2-4/3-6 so why wouldn’t they close this time. I understand your point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, nycsnow said: NYC metro and li now have a little wiggle room, hopefully there is a little bump north to bring our friends up north back into it Wiggle room north yes, wiggle room south not much. It's unreal how dramatic the shift has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't be surprised when the 00z runs end up even further South. Most school districts around here have already called closings for tomorrow. I understand what the forecast was showing but there was no need to pull the trigger this early. 18z seems to held serve hopefully things hold or even tick north a bit at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Same guy said Albany would get more snow then nyc 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 18z seems to held serve hopefully things hold or even tick north a bit at 00z 18z NAM and RGEM both south of their 12z runs but still good for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: In all fairness the last school closing the forecast was 2-4/3-6 so why wouldn’t they close this time. I understand your point. If 2-4 or 3-6 ends up verifying then fine. We could end up with way less than that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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